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October 13, 2005
Will 2006 Be The Democrats' Year?
Today's New York Times has an excellent piece from Robin Toner on the Democrats' political prospects for 2006.
It follows right along with what's been written here in recent months: there is clear opportunity there, but the opportunity must be seized. For too long, Democrats have counted on changing demographics and dissatisfaction with the Republicans' government performance to lead them to electoral victory.
Despite GOP party chair Ken Mehlman's outward confidence (what else is a national party leader supposed to say?), there is privately real concern among Republican strategists that next year could be a doozie for them.
We suspect it's unlikely that the GOP will lose its majorities in either the House or the Senate, but a good campaign cycle with good candidates by the Democrats can close the gaps. Good candidates and good campaigns, however, are easier said than done.
Here in Texas, all flows from the Governor's race. It is the marquee matchup and what drives turnout and the character of the entire election. Without a strong nominee against Rick Perry next year, downballot Democrats are unlikely to see much, if any benefit of a "backlash" against the ruling GOP. That means most of these efforts underway to recruit good folks to run for the Legislature, or County office will go for naught without a real campaign against Governor Good Hair.
This begs the question, why the hell are the trial lawyers so fixated on Carole Keeton Strayhorn? Perry will clobber her in next Spring's primary, though she'll go down swinging. Can't they read a poll?
Far more important is having a strong, well-funded Democratic nominee for 2006. A Governor with an approval rating of 40% or less is vulnerable, no matter what party he's in. The Democratic nomination for Texas Governor in 2006 is very much worth having. Let's hope folks figure that out before it's too late.
Posted by houtopia at October 13, 2005 12:19 PM