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February 06, 2006
Early November Handicapping
We have written numerous times over the last several months that the current national mood, along with historical precedent, offer Democrats an opportunity to make electoral gains this fall. The American public is deeply ambivalent about the current direction of the country, angry at the folks in charge over the state of things, and just plain nervous about the future. With one party in charge of everything, such a negative confluence offers the party out of power a real chance to gain ground.
In today's Washington Post, Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza take an early look at the midterm Congressional elections. They hit the nail on the head in capturing the tension of the fall contest: "...the broader political environment plainly favors Democrats, but the on-the-ground realities of many races give Republicans an advantage as they seek to preserve their majorities."
The piece goes on to highlight individual races on both the House and Senate side, discuss fundraising and quote operatives of both parties about what is likely to happen in November. Inevitable comparisions are drawn with 1994, when the GOP swept into power in both houses of Congress.
In the House, however, perhaps as few as 20 seats are realistically in play, making the odds of the Democrats regaining power there (they need a net gain of about 15 seats) long at best. More likely, we think, are modest gains by Democrats in both the House and Sentate, but no shift of power.
We predict the same here in Texas. Democrats are likely to lose Ken Armbrister's State Senate seat, so no gains there. In the House, a pickup of 4 to 5 seats seems quite possible, which, depending on the outcome of the 20 or so GOP primaries there, may put Tom Craddick's speakership in some peril.
Of course, another 1994 is not out of the question. The GOP really came out of nowhere that year and rode a wave of discontent to historic victory. If Democrats can run a real reform campaign, show some backbone and direction on critical national issues, and aggressively run against the status quo, their own version of the Contract With America is a possibility. Don't hold your breath.
UPDATE: Charlie Cook, one of the best analysts in the business, has thrown in his two cents.
Posted by houtopia at February 6, 2006 11:02 PM