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February 20, 2006
Playing In Primaries
Aside from a pretty low-temperature gubernatorial primary, one Congressional race in south Texas and a few state legislative races, there's just not much action on the Democratic side for the upcoming March 7th election. Part of this, undoubtedly, is that Democrats don't control anything in Texas government, so the stakes are pretty low.
On the Republican side, however, meaningful contests abound. Here in Houston several GOP hopefuls are vying to replace Jon Lindsay in the Texas Senate -- with local talk radio personality Dan Patrick the favorite, three folks have squared off for the nomination to succeed Joe Nixon in the Texas House (a seat Republicans will be hard pressed to hold on to, no matter who wins the primary), and Harris County Treasurer (and former local newsman) Jack Cato is facing a challenge from former GOP darling and two-time mayoral also-ran Orlando Sanchez.
Across the state, about 20 State House seats have meaningful Republican primaries. Many of them are attempts by House Speaker Tom Craddick to exact revenge against GOP incumbents who rebelled against his iron-fisted rule during last year's regular and subsequent two special sessions.
Monday's Austin American Statesman offers a piece from Jason Embry, highlighting five of those races and the efforts of one wealthy conservative ideologue to affect the outcomes.
James Leininger is a successful San Antonio businessman who has long been an advocate for conservative causes in Texas, and specifically school vouchers. He and his wife have reportedly spent about $1.5 million on these five featured Republican House races, a simply staggering sum in a primary season.
Craddick is aligned with Leininger's efforts, and has fielded challengers in a number of the other House primaries. We'll go out on a limb and say he is taking a rather large political risk by so openly targeting incumbent members in his own party, members whose votes he will need in the upcoming special and next year's regular legislative session. As the Statesman piece points out, if Craddick prevails in most or all of these primary races, he sends a very powerful warning to any wavering Republican State Reps -- cross me and you're next.
If the Speaker loses most or all of the challenges, those surviving incumbents will be emboldened and are not likely to soon forget what Craddick tried to do to them, which may threaten his very speakership. Republicans currently hold an 87-63 seat advantage over Democrats in the Texas House. Most Lege watchers think Democrats will pick up some seats this year -- about five. With an 82-68 edge, Craddick has less room for comfort. Another Republican could very likely make a deal of sorts with most Democrats, peel off enough disgruntled Republicans (those emboldened, surviving GOP incumbents) and we have a new Speaker folks.
We are guessing Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, who must be dreading the arrival of Dan Patrick -- a frequent and fiery critic of his -- to the more collegial Texas Senate, might enjoy seeing his "pal" Craddick hoisted on his own political petard. Dewhurst, after all, has had the temerity to suggest that the Legislature should put aside partisanship and actually hammer out a compromise on public school finance and other pressing state issues. Downright heretical in today's Republican Party.
As Texas Democrats continue the long and painful struggle back to relevance in state government, they can be forgiven for enjoying a bit of schadenfreude in watching the latest reality TV show -- Texas Republican Death Match 2006.
We'll be chuckling through the tears.
Posted by houtopia at February 20, 2006 11:57 PM