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March 30, 2006
Treacherous Waters Ahead in Special Session
Yesterday, less than three weeks from beginning a special session of the Texas Legislature, Governor Rick Perry unveiled his new plan to finance public schools -- a 1% broad-based business tax, coupled with a $1 per pack cigarette tax, to be offset by a significant reduction in property taxes. Can you hear the crickets?
The plan, developed by the John Sharp-led Texas Tax Reform Commission, has been met with muted response so far, despite the Govnernor's new found enthusiasm for reform. Both House Speaker Tom Craddick and Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, the other key players in the upcoming special session, have clearly staked out a "we'll see" position on the plan.
It is pretty clear that Craddick, despite recent comments to the press suggesting he has become more open to significant change, wants none of this. He took a political drubbing with the March 7th primaries, and may well lose a couple more allies in the April 11th runoff, so he is choosing his words carefully these days. But Craddick ultimately favors privatizing education, so any significant measures taken to improve the public school system run counter to his and a number of other Republican House members' core beliefs.
Dewhurst, on the other hand, has called for real education reform. Well, Perry's demonstrated aversion to doing anything difficult makes consideration of reform extremely unlikely in this session -- the Guv, as usual, wants to do the absolute minimum to escape with his political hide in November. That Perry chose John Sharp, the Guv's old Texas A&M roommate, who is also Dewhurst's former opponent and sworn enemy to run the commission reportedly really burns the Lite Guv up.
Democrats complain that Perry's plan does nothing to add badly needed new money to public education -- a position at least some Republican members privately share -- and are not enthusiastic about improving Rick Perry's political standing with Texans.
In short, the prospects for this plan passing in the Lege seem shaky at best. The fact that these emergency funding measures (to meet the Supreme Court's June 1st deadline) need a two-thirds majority -- that's 100 votes in the House -- makes this an even tougher hill to climb.
April 17th, the beginning of the special session, is fast approaching, and any kind of a deal seems a long way off. Stay tuned.
Posted by houtopia at 10:23 AM
March 28, 2006
A Non-Change Change
Early this morning came word that President Bush had submitted to a growing chorus within the Republican Party that was pressing for a staff change in the West Wing -- sort of.
Andy Card, Mr. Bush's Chief of Staff since the 2000 Florida recount, stepped down from his position after nearly six years on the job -- a very lengthy tour by Washington standards. He will be replaced by Joshua Bolten, the director of the Office of Management and Budget and former White House Deputy Chief of Staff.
Bolten is very much a core Team Bush player, so while he is technically a new face, he is already a member of the administration's inner circle and hardly brings the fresh perspective so many have clamored for in recent weeks.
For those who have followed George W. Bush's political career, today's "non-change change" at the White House is not surprising. Mr. Bush trusts few people and does not like bad news. He has continually surrounded himself with the same small group of confidantes since his days in Austin -- folks who tell him what he wants to hear.
The trouble is, what he wants to hear these days bears little resemblance to reality. The war in Iraq continues to be problematic, to say the least, the economy is shaky for most people, and the public's faith in the administration has eroded hugely in recent months. These circumstances cry out for a truth teller -- someone who will give the President the bad news he needs to hear, so the White House political ship can be righted.
Men like Howard Baker, James Baker and David Gergen have filled this role for previous presidents. But the boss must be willing to listen. Sadly, the same political tone-deafness the administration has shown on issues from Iraq, to Social Security reform, to Hurricane Katrina seems to guide it now, and it likely comes straight from the top.
Well, at least these folks are consistent.
Posted by houtopia at 04:39 PM
March 26, 2006
The Wedge Issue Within
Much has been made in recent years of Republican political guru Karl Rove's masterful use of wedge issues -- abortion, gay marriage, etc, -- to polarize the American electorate, and to the GOP's political benefit. 2006, however, reveals that the Republican Party faces a major internal wedge issue of its own -- immigration.
In today's NY Times, Rachel Swarns captures the political dilemna this issue presents for one Republican elected official, U.S. Senator John Cornyn of Texas.
A great divide has emerged among Republicans, with President Bush and the business community on one side, and hard line Congressional and rank and file GOPers on the other. The President and his supporters in the business community favor some sort of guest worker "amnesty" program, that allows at least most of the 11 million or so illegal immigrants in the United States a chance to legally remain here. The hard liners see illegal immigrants as taking American jobs, placing an unfair social service burden on the rest of us while paying little or no taxes, and a potential national security threat. They want them out.
The dispute has created a quandry for Cornyn, a self-professed hard line conservative, with a voting record to prove it, but who also represent a border state with a large and growing Hispanic population. His comments in the article signal a politician trying to tiptoe through a political minefield. Good luck.
This problem is equally dangerous for the Republican Party as a whole, which now relies hugely on its Anglo conservative base to win, but is also seeking to make inroads with minorities, particularly Latinos, given inevitable demographic trends in America.
Here in Houston, a recent candidate forum sponsored by two local area Chambers of Commerce, featuring Republican and Democratic candidates for State Senate District 7 and State House District 133, revealed the political danger this issue poses with a diverse electorate.
Each of the Republican candidates for both legislative races fell over himself, trying to seem as hard line as possible. The "send 'em all back" sentiment was shocking (and rather curious, considering the audience -- Chamber of Commerce business types, many of whom were minorities and immigrants themselves) for the xenophobia and borderline racism it embraced. Even candidates like former Houston City Council Member Mark Ellis and HCCS Trustee Jim Murphy, both of whom have worked to cultivate a moderate, "reasonable Republican" image during their public service, shamelessly pandered on this issue.
Considering that Ellis ran a dismal fourth in a four-candidate field, and Murphy, who was thought to be the front-runner for the HD 133 nomination, barely limped into a runoff, perhaps they should reconsider the wisdom of such a strategy.
Ironically, at the forum, the candidate who seemed to best connect with this Republican business crowd on this and a number of other issues, was the HD 133 Democratic candidate Kristi Thibaut. She had the audacity to articulate some basic common sense -- these folks are here, doing jobs most Americans won't do, paying taxes (sales tax, rent, etc.), and we need policy that allows them to be here legally, so we can better control our borders. Heretical? To the hard liners to be sure, but this audience ate it up.
In 2006, the once famous Republican Party discipline has begun to splinter, along issues like immigration. And since the right wing of the party controls the primary process, GOP candidates are tacking hard to the right to win the nomination. This strategy offers Democrats a real opportunity to seize common sense, reasonable positions and make them their own. Will they do it? One of them already is.
Posted by houtopia at 01:04 PM
March 23, 2006
A Shot Across The Bough
As the 2006 political season in Texas begins to heat up, relations between Governor Rick Perry and fellow Republican State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn have gotten downright chilly. It's no secret that Strayhorn is no admirer of the Guv's -- in fact, she wants his job. So, while her campaign to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot as an independent continues, Strayhorn, in her official capacity as Comptroller is taking a shot at Perry and (perhaps not coincidentally) is getting her own name in the papers.
Strayhorn announced yesterday that the State of Texas is suspending payments to a lobby firm hired by the Governor's office, pending an investigation into possible misuse of taxpayer money. She began the investigation after the Houston Chronicle reported that the firm, Cassidy & Associates, spent $7,600 to host an event for Tom DeLay's Americans for a Republican Majoirty just days after receiving a $15,000 monthly payment from the State of Texas. (Is every single allegation of Republican wrongdoing these days somehow connected to DeLay?) If state money was used to pay for the event, that would be an illegal use of taxpayer dollars.
Not surprisingly, the Governor's office has taken great umbrage at Ms. Strayhorn's allegations, and has accused her of creating a publicity stunt to advance her own nascent candidacy for Governor. In turn, Perry spokeswoman Kathy Walt fired back that as Comptroller, Strayhorn had inappropriately reduced the tax bills of companies who had given her political contributions. This thing is getting so nasty so early!
This latest dust-up is just a trailer for this fall's feature blockbuster -- Texas Republican Death Match 2006: Goodhair vs. Grandma. We'll be in the front row with popcorn and Twizzlers in hand. This action-comedy is gonna be one good movie.
Posted by houtopia at 10:08 AM
March 20, 2006
The Price Of Denial
The George W. Bush White House has been remarkable for its ability to stick to its political guns, no matter the circumstances. The adages "never admit you're wrong" and "if you just say it enough times it becomes true" have been touchstones for team Bush, and have been employed to great political effect, including election to a second term.
Remember President Bush's whole basic rationale for his reelection: love him or hate him, agree or disagree, you know where he stands because he is a decisive leader. This rationale was particularly effective in comparison to his opponent Senator Kerry (and Al Gore in the first go-round), who seemed to become an entirely different candidate and person about every two weeks.
Despite vanquishing his political opponents in battle after battle, inconvenient -- potentially devastating -- facts have always seemed to be lurking, like some Damoclean sword threatening this political gambler George W. Bush and his prospects to win the overall war, otherwise known as trying to govern America today. And yet he's kept rolling the dice, despite numerous warnings from friend and foe alike. Well, every gambler's luck must run out some time, and 2006 is coming up one big political snake eyes for the White House so far.
For one thing, major foreign policy chickens are coming home to roost. The war in Iraq has entered its fourth year with little end in sight. As casualties and costs mount and the country teeters on the brink of civil war, too many Americans are no longer buying the administration's sunny story line from Baghdad. A potentially dangerous situation with Iran looms, and America's standing in the world is at an all-time low.
At home budget deficits mount, health care and energy costs skyrocket -- dulling any widespread feeling of economic recovery, and a series of botched crises and just plain bad luck episodes have contributed to the general public's uneasiness about the country's future and declining confidence in the folks in charge (all Republicans these days.)
In short, times have changed (big time, to echo Vice President Cheney), but the Bush White House has not adapted. From Katrina to Terri Schiavo to the Dubai ports issue, the administration has shown a very dangerous political tin ear, and they are beginning to pay the price.
Dismal polling numbers, grumbling from the normally reliable political base and a GOP Congress running for cover as the fall midterm election approaches, signal real trouble for team Bush and the ominous quacking sound of a premature lame duck. January 2009 is long time away.
Posted by houtopia at 10:21 PM
March 19, 2006
Senator John Cornyn -- Working For You
With all the serious problems facing this country right now -- a deteriorating situation in Iraq, a brewing confrontation with Iran, skyrocketing budget deficits and health care costs, and a shaky economy here at home, we are glad to know John Cornyn, the junior United States Senator from Texas is devoting his time and energy to the pressing issues of the day.
In a week, Senator Cornyn will be a headliner at Vision America: The War on Christians and Values Voters in 2006. This is the organization founded by Texas pastor Rick Scarborough, with the aim of ridding the federal bench of "liberal activist judges." Never mind that seven of the nine Supreme Court Justices were appointed by Republicans, or that Republicans hold majorities on 10 of the 13 federal appeals courts, this is a crisis folks!
Remember also that Senator Cornyn made remarks a year ago, seeming to justify recent acts of violence against federal judges because the judges were making "political" decisions and were "unaccountable" to the public.
Adding interesting context are the recent comments of two modern Supreme Court Justices -- one current and one retired -- about the right wing's attack on the judiciary and its threat to or democracy.
So next time John Cornyn tries to pass himself off as Mr. Reasonable, just remember where his true allegiance lies -- with extremists who condone violence against judges.
Posted by houtopia at 02:04 PM
March 17, 2006
Isn't That Special?
Today came the word we have been waiting for -- Governor Rick Perry has set a date for a special session of the Texas Legislature. The fun and games will begin Monday, April 17th and will last 30 days.
Not surprisingly, in the midst of his reelection campaign, the Guv has narrowly focused the session's agenda: fix the funding source for public education before June 1st, as mandated by the Texas Supreme Court. The most likely strategy for doing this is implementing a broad-based business tax in exchange for a one-third cut in property taxes. Easier said than done.
Conveniently, Perry has declined to address education reform or any other number of pressing issues during the upcoming session. After all, he and his fellow Republican legislators need to get back to the real business at hand -- campaigning. The people's business will just have to wait until next year.
Grumbling about the business tax has already begun, notably from some of the state's largest law firms. Under the new plan, they will no longer be exempt from the business tax (as partnerships are under the current franchise tax); not surprisingly, they are not happy.
There is likely palpable unease at the Capitol about the upcoming session. Politically, there are just no easy options. No matter what funding source is ultimately passed (if any is -- remember, they've struck out the last 6 attempts at this), there will be winners and losers. The losers tend to go vote, and in this case they are likely to have substantial resources to contribute against members who cast unpopular votes.
So, Governor Perry's plan to cut property taxes and declare victory may not be as easily achieved as he hopes, and it certainly will not be without political consequences. For Democrats it's another moment where being out of power may not be the worst thing in the world. Republicans run everything in Texas, so politically it's their problem.
Sadly, an issue so important as how we value and fund our public schools is reduced to what plan will generate the least bad electoral outcome for the Texas GOP. And that's a problem that affects us all. Another installment of Profiles in Political Courage, courtesy of Rick Perry. Geez...
Posted by houtopia at 05:00 PM
March 16, 2006
Big Spending Republicans
This ain't your father's Republican Party folks. These former ideological warriors, who surged to Congressional power in 1994 waiving the bloody shirt for small government and an end to corruption in Washington, have become what they once despised. Having fed at the public trough for better than a decade now, today's GOP never met a pork project it didn't like, and the enormous rap sheet of scandals involving Congressional Republicans and Bush administration officials that has come to light in recent months, tells you all you need to know about what's become of their Contract With America pledge to "restore accountability to Congress and end its cycle of scandal and disgrace." What a pathetic joke.
Today's vote in the U.S. Senate is but the latest frontal assault on good government and the future financial well-being of America. In today's vote, the Senate decided to allow President Bush to borrow another $781 billion, just putting the tab on America's credit card.
Sure, we can fund wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, pass an enormous government giveaway to the insurance and pharmaceutical industries -- otherwise known as the Medicare Bill, pay out Social Security benefits, and keep cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans. Those famously small government Republicans in charge have now raised the federal government's debt ceiling to $9 trillion, that's trillion with a "t".
The vote was close -- 52-48 -- and every single Democrat voted against it. The political reality as we once knew it in America has been turned on its head. Every Democrat voted to "pay as you go" and preserve some modicum of fiscal responsibility, while the GOP is content to spend and spend, the consequences be damned. When the next debt ceiling is reached, the government will owe $30,000 for every person in the United States, all 300 million of us.
So the next time you hear some Republican elected official crowing about big government liberals, just remind him that it is his party that is spending like drunken sailors and mortgaging the financial future of this great country. The hypocrisy is staggering.
Posted by houtopia at 01:15 PM
March 15, 2006
Parsing The Polls
It's a bit early yet to use polling numbers to read the tea leaves regarding this fall's midterm elections, but the numbers out there overwhelmingly point to an electorate ripe for political change in November.
The new CNN/Gallup poll released yesterday shows President Bush has hit a new low in his approval rating -- just 36% approve of the job he is doing, while 60% now disapprove. These numbers are passing Jimmy Carter and headed for Nixonian territory.
And in today's Washington Post, Chris Cillizza offers some analysis on what current numbers may mean for the Congressional elections. He averages five recent polls that ask the "generic" ballot question - whether the respondent would vote for the Democrat or Republican for Congress. In all five polls, Democrats hold a big lead.
He goes on to add, however, that there very few electorally competitive Congressional seats anymore (perhaps only 35 or 40, thanks to redistricting), and so even the currently intense voter appetite for change may only result in a modest shift of the political landscape this fall. We agree.
We expect Democrats to make modest net gains in both the U.S. House and Senate -- perhaps 8 to 10 seats in the House and 2 or 3 in the Senate -- meaning Republicans will likely remain in control of Congress, but not by much.
Similarly, here in Texas, Democrats should make gains in the Texas House -- perhaps 4 or 5 seats net. In the Senate, however, a loss of one seat is most likely, with Republicans winning the race to replace Ken Armbrister in Senate District 18. Many candidates for state office's fortunes will likely hinge on what does (or does not) happen in the upcoming special session of the Legislature.
Again, it is early, and a lot can change in the 8 months between now and November. And given Democrats' recent elecoral performance, both nationally and here in Texas, they shouldn't pop the champagne corks just yet.
Posted by houtopia at 09:50 AM
March 13, 2006
Too Tired To Think
In today's Washington Post, Peter Baker probes a more innocent and simple reasoning than is normally offered for the Bush White House's declining political fortunes of late -- staff exhaustion.
Many members of President Bush's core inner circle are into their sixth year of serving him there -- a long tenure by Washington standards -- and the article speculates that the brutal work hours and nearly constant dealing with crisis and/or scandal have taken their toll.
The piece particularly focuses on Andy Card, the White House Chief of Staff since Day 1, who continues to put in 18-hour days, seven days a week, and who while widely respected, is thought to not be as sharp as usual. Exhaustion can indeed impair judgment. And remember, since the President is in bed by 9:00 every night, somebody has to keep working!
The litany of recent missteps by the White House has been remarkable (not that we necessarily mind) from a group that had previously showed such keen political instincts. The explanation that folks are just too tired to think straight strikes us as plausible.
Many Republicans believe it's time for some fresh faces on the White House staff, but this notion runs contrary to this president's modus operandi. George W. Bush is well known to be a loner, who trusts and is close to few people. The idea of bringing new staff into his inner circle, likely many of whom he does not have a close relationship with or fully trust, is likely less than appetizing for Bush, despite the fact that he desperately needs it.
In the face of ongoing political controversy, scandal and simple bad luck, this White House has come to resemble a bunker. For team Bush to fight its way out, it first would have to call in reenforcements. After all, two and a half more years is a long time to stay holed up. Pretty soon, however, the battle may be lost.
Posted by houtopia at 10:11 AM
March 09, 2006
Recapping March 7th
Now that we have had a day or two to breathe deeply after Tuesday night's statewide primary election (those of us who actually noticed there was one), it's time to look back at the first skirmish in what promises to be a fascinating political year in Texas.
Roughly 1.17 million Texans voted in the March 7th primaries -- 660,000 on the Republican side and 510,000 in the Democratic election. Not a high turnout (there are about 13 million registered voters in Texas), which provides continuing evidence that hardly anyone votes in primaries anymore. That said, there were some interesting results.
On the GOP side, contests in the Texas House provided the most entertainment. 5 candidates backed by San Antonio doctor and businessman James Leininger challenged sitting Republican House members. Dr. Leininger poured over $2 million into these races, a staggering sum. Two of the challengers won, one of them by less than 50 votes. Not a great return on his enormous investment, but not a total disaster.
Several House members loyal to Speaker Tom Craddick were challenged by candidates backed by the education community, and a few fell. Most notably, Kent Gruesendorf, the Speaker's point man on education, was defeated, as was Elvira Reyna. Incumbent Scott Campbell ran a weak second, barely making a runoff, and is not expected to survive.
Rumors are already swirling that Craddick will get a leadership challenge during the upcoming special session. Tuesday was not a good night for him -- what a shame.
It was a great night, however, for former Houston TV sportscaster and talk radio personality Dan Patrick. Patrick garnered 68% of the vote against three other candidates in the primary to replace retiring State Senator Jon Lindsay. While Patrick was widely considered the favorite, and even predicted to win without a runoff, his margin of victory was stunning. He will go to Austin next year with a clear mandate from District 7 Republican voters.
Inexplicably, the rest of the field in the Senate race, and specifically candidate Joe Nixon, never really went after Patrick to pull him down. Nixon reportedly spent $800,000 to receive 3,600 votes, or 8% -- ouch. Rather than spending some of his considerable resources trying to bring Patrick back to the pack, Nixon opted for "soft positive" commercials on very expensive network television. Nixon has, let us say, a face for radio. Hard hitting direct mail targeting Patrick likely would have better served his cause. Oh well.
In the 22nd Congressional District primary, incumbent Tom DeLay was renominated with just over 60% of the vote, a less than stellar performance from the longtime member. DeLay has typically received 80% or better in previous primaries, but his legal and political troubles have clearly taken a toll. When nearly 40% of the true believer base rejects you, your general election prospects would seem less than certain. Again, oh well.
On the Democratic side, former Houston City Council Member and Congressman Chris Bell handily beat Bob Gammage in the race to carry the Democratic flag against Governor Rick Perry this fall. His road to the Governor's Mansion won't be an easy one, but he must be pleased with Tuesday night's convincing result.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Houston lawyer and political newcomer Barbara Ann Radnofsky led a three-candidate field and moved to a runoff against perennial statewide candidate Gene Kelly (as she points out, not the former dancing star of the silver screen.)
South Texas featured a couple of very interesting races. In Congressional District 28 -- a Tom DeLay gerrymandered special that runs from San Antonio down to Laredo -- incumbent Henry Cuellar survived a challenge from his 2004 opponent Ciro Rodriguez, despite Cuellar's cozy ties to the Bush administration and conservative groups like the Club for Growth, which contributed heavily to Cuellar's campaign. Rodriguez, who trailed badly early on in the race, was able to close the gap down the stretch thanks to several hundred thousand dollars raised from national liberal blogs, but still came up short. State Senator Frank Madla was ousted by San Antonio House member Carlos Uresti in the area's other big race.
Here in Houston, the biggest fireworks came in the race for State House District 146. Incumbent Al Edwards, he of "booty bill" fame (as seen on The Daily Show) was challenged by two young professionals. Borris Miles, a local insurance agent, pushed Edwards into a runoff -- a real blow for a 28-year incumbent who has never faced a serious challenge. This race is likely to get ugly leading up to the Aprill 11th runoff, and will be a close one.
So another day of excitement has come and gone for the politically wretched. But for those junkies needing a fix, we have another one coming in just over 30 days. Oh well.
Posted by houtopia at 10:01 PM
March 07, 2006
E-Day In Harris County
Nearly half way through Election Day in Harris County, the polling places have, let us say, a rather deserted feel. Houtopia's experience pushing cards in Alief this morning yielded a whopping three voters in two hours. And our subsequent trip to cast our own ballot revealed only 6 voters had made it to our Inner Loop location as of about 10 am -- and that is combining three precincts in one location. Democracy in action, folks. Yikes.
Over in the much watched State House District 146 race, turnout is somewhat better but still light. A hair under 1,900 folks voted in person early in this district -- about half of the 2004 EV total, and two-thirds of the 2002 count.
Nearly half way through the voting day, most of the heavily African American boxes had in person E-day turnout of fewer than 50 people. The more Anglo west side boxes fewer than 30.
If the trends continue, we are looking at a total vote in the neighborhood of 6,500, down from the roughly 10,000 votes in the last two cycles. All three campaigns are working hard to get their folks to the polls, and the flurry of mail and phone calls in recent days is likely cross-pressuring many district voters to pass on this one.
Reading the tea leaves, either Borris Miles will force a runoff with incumbent Al Edwards, or Edwards will take it outright. Just depends on who shows up.
Posted by houtopia at 11:47 AM
Predictions Anyone?
Well, today is primary day in Texas, and it's a day of interest only for political junkies. Despite numerous important contests around the state, if early voting is any indication, not many Texans seem to care much.
On the Republican side, a number of legislative races are up for grabs. Most interesting will be to watch five State House GOP primaries where James Leininger, a San Antonio doctor, businessman and conservative ideologue, has bankrolled challengers to established incumbents. Dr. Leininger has poured over $2 million into these five contests, hoping to further his pet issue in Austin -- school vouchers.
Here in Harris County a couple of nasty judicial races have taken shape on the GOP side, and three candidates are vying for the nomination to replace Joe Nixon in State House District 133. But the marquee race is for the nomination to replace retiring State Senator and former County Judge Jon Lindsay.
Local talk radio personality and former sportscaster Dan Patrick is the frontrunner, and the drama centers around whether or not he can be forced into a runoff. Conventional wisdom of late says Patrick will win the race on the first try, a notion that must cause heartburn for the state's Lieutenant Governor and frequent Patrick punching bag David Dewhurst.
And of course, there is Congressional District 22. Now former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay faces three challengers on tomorrow's ballot, and given his ongoing legal and political troubles, DeLay needs an outright win. We'll see.
On the Democratic side, the governor's race gets top billing, but it has been a decidedly low-key affair. Chris Bell and Bob Gammage have traded barbs over the Internet, but neither has much money to actually reach voters. The only public poll recently done by the Dallas Morning News, showed Bell with a significant lead, but 60% of primary voters undecided. Bell looks to have the edge, but with abysmally low turnout, who knows for sure? South Texas also sports interesting races for Congress and State Senate.
Locally, while there is a race to challenge John Culberson for U.S. Congress, it is a State House race in an African American district that has garnered the most interest. Longtime incumbent Al Edwards faces challenges from two impressive and considerably younger candidates. We do have a recommendation is this race.
While most Texans won't even notice there's an election tomorrow, we politically wretched wait in anticipation.
Posted by houtopia at 02:22 AM
March 05, 2006
The Best Laid Plans
In the wake of a recent CBS News/NY Times poll showing President Bush's approval rating has fallen to an all-time low, today's Times takes stock of Mr. Bush's prospects for his second-term policy agenda.
The article notes that Mr. Bush has rebounded numerous times from political difficulty during his presidency, and his ability to do so again should not be dismissed. Mr. Bush is a cagey political fighter who has demonstrated he can turn around a tough situation, particularly given the weakness of the Democratic opposition these days.
What makes the current situation more difficult for the president to turn around, is that many of the biggest obstacles to his agenda for the next 2+ years come from within his own Grand Ole Party. That's right, folks. That disciplined political juggernaut of the last 12 years, the Republican Party, has restless natives.
Whether it's domestic wiretapping, outsourcing port security to Dubai, or just the administration's continued expectation that Congress will continue to cede its authority to the executive, Congressional Republicans have had enough. After all, unlike Mr. Bush, they're on the ballot in 8 months, and may well be punished by voters in November for Mr. Bush's failed policies.
And so slowly but surely, GOP members begin to distance themselves from the once politically golden Bush, now fearing his radioactivity may wound them, perhaps mortally. They seek that appearance of enough independence from the White House to give them political cover from an angry electorate.
While it may seem remarkable that such a disciplined machine as the modern Republican Party could show such cracks while on top of the political world, upon reflection it makes some sense. Think about it, this is a bunch who came to power in 1994 riding a wave of anger against the establishment. This is a party that for 40 years fought its way back from the political wilderness after the 1964 Barry Goldwater debacle. This is the crowd that rode the talk radio vehicle of outrage to electoral success.
This gang won by railing against the machine, fighting City Hall, and lusting after seemingly unattainable power. Well, now they have it all, but how do they channel the outrage? How do you fight City Hall when you are City Hall? Democrats have been vanquished for now, so it's time to eat their own.
Whether viewing events in Washington or here in Texas, the rest of us can only sit back and watch the internicene warfare. Whether we're puzzled, alarmed, bemused, or even secretly enjoying the fight, in this one-party America of today, it's the biggest story in town.
Posted by houtopia at 08:22 PM