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March 15, 2006
Parsing The Polls
It's a bit early yet to use polling numbers to read the tea leaves regarding this fall's midterm elections, but the numbers out there overwhelmingly point to an electorate ripe for political change in November.
The new CNN/Gallup poll released yesterday shows President Bush has hit a new low in his approval rating -- just 36% approve of the job he is doing, while 60% now disapprove. These numbers are passing Jimmy Carter and headed for Nixonian territory.
And in today's Washington Post, Chris Cillizza offers some analysis on what current numbers may mean for the Congressional elections. He averages five recent polls that ask the "generic" ballot question - whether the respondent would vote for the Democrat or Republican for Congress. In all five polls, Democrats hold a big lead.
He goes on to add, however, that there very few electorally competitive Congressional seats anymore (perhaps only 35 or 40, thanks to redistricting), and so even the currently intense voter appetite for change may only result in a modest shift of the political landscape this fall. We agree.
We expect Democrats to make modest net gains in both the U.S. House and Senate -- perhaps 8 to 10 seats in the House and 2 or 3 in the Senate -- meaning Republicans will likely remain in control of Congress, but not by much.
Similarly, here in Texas, Democrats should make gains in the Texas House -- perhaps 4 or 5 seats net. In the Senate, however, a loss of one seat is most likely, with Republicans winning the race to replace Ken Armbrister in Senate District 18. Many candidates for state office's fortunes will likely hinge on what does (or does not) happen in the upcoming special session of the Legislature.
Again, it is early, and a lot can change in the 8 months between now and November. And given Democrats' recent elecoral performance, both nationally and here in Texas, they shouldn't pop the champagne corks just yet.
Posted by houtopia at March 15, 2006 09:50 AM