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May 30, 2006
A Race To Watch
Houtopia has returned after a much-needed Memorial Day respite.
As the long slog toward the fall midterm election cranks up, pundits and prognostocators are busy trying to gauge this year's political winds. While most seasoned pols were at first only willing to predict modest gains for Democrats in 2006 that would narrow but not usurp GOP control of Congress, in recent weeks they have become increasingly bullish on the possibility for a real sea-change midterm election.
One race to watch as a harbinger of November's overall outcome is the special election runoff for California's 50th Congressional district. The 50th, a solidly Republican enclave in San Diego, was until recently represented by newly convicted felon and long-term guest of the federal government Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
After the Dukester's departure for the penitentiary, a special election was held to replace him in April. Shockingly, Democrat Francine Busby (whom Cunningham handily beat in 2004) ran a strong first, and proceeded to a runoff against former Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray.
The runoff is on June 6th, and as U.S. News reports, National Republican Congressional Committee staffers are "preparing for a possible loss" next week. (Note: the GOP is notorious for lowering expectations -- remember Bush in the debates? So, a narrow Bilbray victory could then be spun as a Republican recovery.)
We of course will have to wait and see what actually happens in San Diego on the 6th, but if Busby eeks out a win in a basically 60% GOP district, it will send a powerful message about the larger political dynamic in play for the fall midterm.
Keep your eye on this one folks.
Posted by houtopia at 09:20 PM
May 25, 2006
The Verdict
It's no secret what the biggest news here in Houston was today, and perhaps the biggest news in the country.
After a 16-week trial downtown, former Enron head honchos Ken Lay and Jeffrey Skilling were found guilty on multiple counts in federal court. While both will almost certainly appeal the jury verdicts, each man likely faces a lengthy term in federal prison. The once smartest guys in the room are likely smarting badly tonight.
Most Houstonians seem satisfied and/or relieved by the verdicts. Enron was a corporate giant in this city, and most of us knew people either directly or indirectly affected. This trial has been personal for Houston and its residents, just as the outrage and shame over the company's collapse was.
Reports are that this jury did its job in rendering a well considered -- and we believe, appropriate -- verdict for each man. We should thank the jurors for their public service in this ordeal.
Perhaps even more so than Tyco, World Com, Adelphia, and the litany of corporate scandals that have unfolded over the last several years, the Enron debacle was the nadir of corporate greed run amok. The unchecked greed of a few at the top destroyed a once vibrant company, and the lives of too many of its employees, retirees, shareholders and their families.
Though we worship at the altar of American capitalism (it is the best system out there), and as much as we love to decry government meddling in commerce, a travesty like Enron reminds us that we do need real rules and real consequences for such unscrupulous behavior.
There will always be those who will bend, skirt or trample on the basic ethics that must govern a civilized society. We must have sound legal structure and punishment to prevent us all from falling victim to our "baser nature."
Hope they are paying attention in Washington.
Posted by houtopia at 09:10 PM
May 23, 2006
On Lloyd Bentsen
Texas and the nation lost a great statesman today. The tall, patrician gentleman from the Rio Grande Valley was the last Democrat to truly dominate in statewide politics -- a notion that seems a pipe dream today.
Cragg Hines penned an excellent obituary in today's Chronicle.
As a young campaign staffer in 1992 for then-Congressman Mike Andrews, fresh out of the University of Texas and just entering the political scene, I had an opportunity to see a bit of Senator Bentsen up close as he campaigned for Mike and the Democratic ticket as his own life in politics was winding down. To this green kid he personified the elegant statesman -- my image of him hasn't changed at all 14 years later.
After Bill Clinton's victory Senator Bentsen would of course go on to serve the country as Treasury Secretary, but his departure from electoral politics in Texas sadly slammed the door shut for Democrats winning statewide. Kay Bailey Hutchison replaced him in 1993, and the rest is history. That door has not been reopened since.
On my desk is a picture of Senator Bentsen, Congressman Andrews and myself (the 22 year-old version) from that 1992 campaign. I looked at it with nostalgia today after hearing of the Senator's death. It will stay on my desk not only as a reminder of a better political time, but as motivation to bring a brighter day to our great state.
RIP Senator Bentsen.
- Keir Murray
Posted by houtopia at 10:59 PM
May 21, 2006
On Expanding Congressional Targets
As the polls continue to sink for President Bush, and by association, the Republican Party, many analysts are becoming increasingly bullish about Democrats' prospects for electoral success in the November midterm elections.
A primary issue for debate has been whether or not Democrats can retake the United States House of Representatives -- they need a net gain of 15 seats to do so. While most dispassionate analysts agree Democrats ought to pick up at least some seats in Novmeber, until recently many thought winning the House back unlikely, mostly because of (thanks to redistricting) the lack of competitive districts.
As Adam Nagourney's piece in today's New York Times notes, conventional wisdom may be changing. According to Nagourney, Democrats are expanding their House target list, and challenging some GOP incumbents previously thought to be safe:
"Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election."
The Democrats' more aggressive posture is based on efforts (successful so far) to nationalize this fall's election, and saddle incumbent Republican's with President Bush's hefty political baggage. Again, from the Times:
"One senior Republican strategist, granted anonymity because his assessment would put him at odds with party leaders, said that Democrats were succeeding in their main goal: turning the race into a national referendum on Mr. Bush and the Republican Party. 'Is the race being nationalized?' this strategist said. 'Yes.'"
The piece also, however, sounds a note of caution that Democrats would be wise to heed (we've been a bit of a one-note Johnny on the subject ourselves):
"Some analysts emphasize that it remains early in the season, that the field of vulnerable Republican seats remains relatively small, and — perhaps most significant — that Republicans will have a big spending advantage over Democrats by fall."
In other words, the climate is great right now, but the weather can sure change in six months. Republican incumbents (at both the Congressional and legislative levels) will have funding and plenty of time to paint their opponents with a "liberal and unacceptable" brush. Democratic candidates must remember this is a marathon and fight like hell, all the way to the finish line.
Posted by houtopia at 11:01 AM
May 16, 2006
We're Number One!
The Texas Legislature's special session ended a day early today, with Governor Rick Perry's packaged tax cut bills set to become law. Unsurprisingly, the Governor is doing a bit of gloating -- he can still summon that old cheerleader pep when he needs it, can't he?
As today's Houston Chronicle piece by Clay Robison and Janet Elliott demonstrates, however, a certain Texas grandma isn't giving little Ricky any sugar for his self-proclaimed success. In fact, she's cut a switch and started giving the Guv a verbal whipping -- one that's likely to last the next six months.
While Perry jumped up and down about Texas being "one of the continual number one places in the world to do business" (note to self, Governor, we're also "number one" in high school dropouts), One Tough Grandma -- otherwise known as Republican State Comptroller and Independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn -- accused Mr. Perry of writing the "largest hot check in Texas history." She sure throws them zingers, don't she?
She argues that the special session yielded nothing more than a one-time quick fix for public school finance, paid for by a current budget surplus and likely to be eroded by rising appraisals in the near future. Perry believes the new business tax will generate adequate increased revenue as commerce (and thus business receipts) go up. The jury is out on who is right.
But one could almost feel the Governor lose that team spirit by having to put down his pom poms and defend himself from mean old Grandma. (Another note to self, Mr Perry: Get used to it.)
Look for Mrs. Strayhorn to sharpen her attack into a handful of potent projectiles in the coming weeks, and pound Perry over and over with them. The Governor will respond in kind, and off we go!
Both Chris Bell and Kinky Friedman are likely to benefit from such warfare breaking out -- how much for whom remains to be seen. But each must be ready to capture the fallout and sell himself as the palatable alternative to the fratricidal Republicans.
It will be a very interesting six months in Texas politics, to say the least.
Posted by houtopia at 09:45 PM
May 13, 2006
McCain At Liberty
There has been considerable hoopla in recent weeks -- particularly in the blogoshpere -- over Arizona Senator John McCain's trip today to Jerry Falwell's Liberty University as that institution's graduation commencement speaker.
Many have wondered how McCain could stomach even being in Falwell's presence after the Good Reverend smeared him in the 2000 Republican presidential primary. But Senator McCain is clearly pondering another run for the White House in 2008 (when he will turn 72 years of age), and will need to earn the support of religious conservatives to have any chance of being the GOP's nominee.
The senator's new rapprochement with Falwell is part of what McCain critics perceive as an overall tack to the right, or at least pandering to the right, designed to improve his 2008 chances. EJ Dionne of the Washington Post penned probably the most widely read of these critiques a few months ago -- A Maverick No More?
So, under this context in went McCain to the Liberty lion's den. The oration was very interesting indeed.
The speech was basically a call for passionate, respectful debate -- a return to the idea of civil society that seems awfully distant these days. These two paragraphs capture the essence of his message:
"We have our disagreements, we Americans. We contend regularly and enthusiastically over many questions: over the size and purposes of our government; over the social responsibilities we accept in accord with the dictates of our conscience and our faithfulness to the God we pray to; over our role in the world and how to defend our security interests and values in places where they are threatened. These are important questions; worth arguing about. We should contend over them with one another. It is more than appropriate, it is necessary that even in times of crisis, especially in times of crisis, we fight among ourselves for the things we believe in. It is not just our right, but our civic and moral obligation."
and...
"Americans deserve more than tolerance from one another, we deserve each other’s respect, whether we think each other right or wrong in our views, as long as our character and our sincerity merit respect, and as long as we share, for all our differences, for all the noisy debates that enliven our politics, a mutual devotion to the sublime idea that this nation was conceived in – that freedom is the inalienable right of mankind, and in accord with the laws of nature and nature’s Creator."
McCain chose the Iraq War as his central topic worthy of debate, and did not shrink a bit from his support for the effort, arguing for the spread of freedom to the Middle East. (One question: how does one defend spreading freedom to others, when it is eroding day by day at home?)
But McCain also counseled the young graduates against glorifying war, using his own youthful vanity as example:
"When I was a young man, I thought glory was the highest attainment, and all glory was self-glory. My parents tried to teach me otherwise, as did my church, as did the Naval Academy. But I didn’t understand the lesson until later in life, when I confronted challenges I never expected to face."
We do not agree with Senator McCain on a host of issues, but had always admired his independent streak and willingness to buck the party line from time to time. We, too, have been dismayed at his apparent cozying up to the extremists of his party in recent months for future political gain.
Nonetheless, we agree with the central message of his speech at Liberty -- that open, spirited and respectful debate should be at the core of American civil society. We hope the Bush Administration was listening.
Posted by houtopia at 11:23 AM
May 11, 2006
Guess Who's Listening?
Well, well, well. Thursday morning's USA Today took the prize for headline of the day -- NSA Has Massive Database of Americans' Phone Calls. For those unfamiliar with government lingo, NSA stands for the National Security Agengy, which is by far the largest and most secretive of the nation's intelligence agencies. Oh, and Americans means you.
That's right folks, our beloved federal government has been compiling phone records on "tens of millions" of its citizens, under the auspices, of course, of that reliable Bush administration catch-all, The War on Terror. Even more heartening is that this surveillance was conducted with direct assistance of the largest telecommunications companies in the country, AT&T, Verizon and BellSouth.
These phone companies gave the government your phone records, perhaps for a price, since the USA Today story indicates the firms have been "working under contract with the NSA" since shortly after 9/11. Nice to know your call list is worth something, isn't it? Only Denver-based Qwest refused to comply.
Friday's Washington Post picks up on the political fallout, beginning with the revelation's potential impact on the confirmation of newly designated CIA Director, General Michael Hayden. Hayden is the former head of the NSA, who has publicly advocated for the president's ability to increase domestic spying without warrants. Ouch.
Our favorite line of the Post piece, however, centered around President Bush's attempts Thursday to put out this latest political fire that officially wasn't even officially burning.
"Bush made an unscheduled appearance in the White House press room, where he sought to shape perceptions about the surveillance while declining to acknowledge that it is taking place. He said that 'the intelligence activities I authorized are lawful,' but specified no source of statutory or constitutional authority. He denied forcefully that his administration is 'mining or trolling through the personal lives of millions of innocent Americans,' saying, 'Our efforts are focused on links to al-Qaeda and their known affiliates.'"
Great stuff.
Somewhat surprisingly, Congress yowled with outrage. (I guess these guys are finally tired of being walked on.) Multiple Democratic members signed letters demanding an investigation, but it was a handful of Republican senators who screamed the loudest.
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania promised to drag the complicit phone companies before his committee, and Pat Roberts of Kansas and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina expressed outrage.
Who knows where this story will go, but for the White House it is yet another flaming torch that must be juggled. How many can you have in the air before you drop one? We'll see.
Posted by houtopia at 09:47 PM
May 09, 2006
The Sky's The Limit
Today's WaPo brings the latest from those Defenders of Fiscal Irresponsibility, otherwise known as the Republican Party.
Buried on page 121 of the 151-page U.S. House budget blueprint is a provision that would permit raising the federal government's debt ceiling, which is the amount the government is legally permitted to borrow, to $10 trillion. The federal debt ceiling was just under $6 trillion when George W. Bush took office; if this new measure is passed it will be over $9.6 trillion.
Remember the bad old days when budgets were balanced, jobs were plentiful and most Americans were getting ahead? The Onion, a satirical online paper, got it right with it's headline after the 2000 presidential election: Our Long National Nightmare of Peace and Prosperity Is Finally Over.
The Post piece states the obvious reason for the increase:
"But the federal debt keeps climbing because of continued deficit spending and the government's insatiable borrowing from the Social Security trust fund."
Central to the House GOP's plan is to pass an extension of deep tax cuts to dividends and captial gains, while cutting extensively into health and education programs. To their credit, House GOPers drew the line and will block President Bush's request to raise health care preimums and copayments for military service members, but will seek to limit expenditures for emergency natural disasters (not good news for places like Houston, which is still awaiting federal reimbursement for help rendered after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.)
This is the latest bite at the budget apple, after a group of House GOP moderates bolted last month and refused to support the deep cuts to basic services. One of them, Rep. Michael Castle of Delaware, gave this latest plan "50-50" odds.
Tax cuts galore, war on the cheap, and to hell with those who are struggling. That's the kind of red-blooded American patriotism that makes you proud, isn't it? Whether you liked Howard Dean or not, it's increasingly clear one of his zingers from the 2004 campaign is true: you can't trust the Republican Party with your money.
Posted by houtopia at 03:40 PM
May 08, 2006
The $64,000 Question
We have written often in recent months about the political climate for change in 2006, and wondered whether or not Democrats -- who have not exactly demonstrated electoral prowess in recent years -- can make real gains in November's midterm election. Many have compared 2006 to the sea-change election of 1994, when the GOP retook Congress for the first time in decades -- power they continue to hold today. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to take back the U.S. House of Representatives, and 6 seats to reclaim the Senate.
As an excellent piece from Ron Brownstein and Janet Hook in today's LA Times points out, neither task will be easy, despite the national mood. In the House, redistricting done after the 2000 Census (along with a wee mid-decade gerrymander here in the Lone Star State) has made defeating incumbent House members a tall order.
For example, in 1994 the non-partisan Cook Report estimated that 100 House races were competitive. The GOP ultimately gained 52 seats. This year, the Cook report only lists 35 seats as competitive, giving Democrats considerably fewer opportunities for success. Gaining 15 seats out of 35 races now does seem doable, but it will not be easy.
In the Senate, 6 seats are needed. The numbers make this takeover less likely, since more of the competitive races are in states carried by President Bush in 2004, rather than states won by John Kerry. The math just doesn't favor it. That said, sometimes major political change defies numerical probability.
The President is still searching for a floor to his collapsing poll numbers (today's Gallup poll hits a new low), and the spike in gas prices, continued bad news from Iraq, and rising health care costs just feed the fire.
As the article states, the national political mood is on a collision course with a rigid political structure. Which one will give? That is the $64,000 question folks.
Posted by houtopia at 04:59 PM
May 05, 2006
Goss A Goner At CIA
The White House has just made another personnel change, which given the "staff shakeup" over the last few weeks, isn't surprising. That it is CIA Director Porter Goss resigning, however, is a shocker -- well, sort of.
Since Josh Bolten took over as White House Chief of Staff, several changes have been made (most notably a significant alteration of Karl Rove's official role and the departure of spokesman Scott McClellan), and more have been rumored. Names like Treasury Secretary John Snow and communications director Nicolle Devenish have often been floated in recent weeks as the next to leave the Bush administration.
Goss's name has scarcely been mentioned in such speculation, so his resignation has caught the clueless press corps off guard. In fact, given what's been percolating out on that media hinterland known as the Web, today's announcement shouldn't be all that shocking.
Remember Duke Cunningham? For those that don't, the Dukestir (spelled to match the name of his illegally acquired yacht), is a now former San Diego Congressman who recently plead guilty to receiving over $2 million in bribes, and who just began serving an 8-year sentence in federal prison.
Well, in recent weeks more information about the Dukestir's ties to dirty lobbyists -- Mitchell Wade and Brent Wilkes, in particular -- has come to light, including partying with prostitutes at the Watergate Hotel; that's right, folks the Watergate. Talking Points Memo has done some great reporting on these developments.
It turns out Kyle Foggo, the executive director and "number three" guy at the CIA, and long-time buddy of troubled lobbyist Brent Wilkes is under investigation in this matter as well. Speculation has now extended to Director Goss, himself a former fellow Republican Congressman from Florida.
So, while the White House is attempting to send Goss out with the Friday afternoon trash (press lingo for a time when nobody is paying attention), and spin his resignation as part of Bolten's overall White House shakeup, you discerning Houtopia readers can connect the dots.
Another scandal brewing at the White House -- how does one keep up? It's downright dizzying.
Oh, and for those of you wondering how a scandal this big could have happened that didn't involve Tom DeLay, don't jump to conclusions just yet. The Dukestir and the Hammer shared a mutual friend, Brent Wilkes. We couldn't make this stuff up if we tried.
Posted by houtopia at 01:46 PM
May 04, 2006
Rebuke For Doing The Right Thing
In today's Chronicle, Clay Robison reports that the Republican Texas State Comptroller (who is also an independent gubernatorial hopeful), Carole Keeton Strayhorn, was admonished by State Attorney General Greg Abbott yesterday for investigating the Texas Residential Construction Commission and recommending that it be abolished.
Strayhorn was apparently asked by a legislator (State Senator Todd Simth) to compare the agency's complaint process with those in other states, and to determine if the commission discouraged good home building. She conducted her investigation and presented her report in January, finding that the agency "was nothing more than a builder protection agency." She recommended that the commission be blasted "off the bureaucratic books."
Abbott ruled that Strayhorn did not have the authority to conduct the investigation without the Governor's approval -- ah, there's the rub. Strayhorn, for her part, was unapologetic after Abbott's ruling.
This commission, who's members are appointed by the Governor, has been stacked with building industry cronies and has effectively denied Texans' ability to seek legal recourse when they purchase a shoddily constructed new home. The TRCC is just one example of the all-out assualt on the little guy that has been legislated by the Texas Republican Party in the last few years.
Abbott's ruling is nothing more than a slap on the wrist legally, since the investigation has already been completed and its findings presented. This was just politics by the Governor's office -- about the only thing they're good at up there.
Posted by houtopia at 08:59 AM