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May 30, 2006
A Race To Watch
Houtopia has returned after a much-needed Memorial Day respite.
As the long slog toward the fall midterm election cranks up, pundits and prognostocators are busy trying to gauge this year's political winds. While most seasoned pols were at first only willing to predict modest gains for Democrats in 2006 that would narrow but not usurp GOP control of Congress, in recent weeks they have become increasingly bullish on the possibility for a real sea-change midterm election.
One race to watch as a harbinger of November's overall outcome is the special election runoff for California's 50th Congressional district. The 50th, a solidly Republican enclave in San Diego, was until recently represented by newly convicted felon and long-term guest of the federal government Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
After the Dukester's departure for the penitentiary, a special election was held to replace him in April. Shockingly, Democrat Francine Busby (whom Cunningham handily beat in 2004) ran a strong first, and proceeded to a runoff against former Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray.
The runoff is on June 6th, and as U.S. News reports, National Republican Congressional Committee staffers are "preparing for a possible loss" next week. (Note: the GOP is notorious for lowering expectations -- remember Bush in the debates? So, a narrow Bilbray victory could then be spun as a Republican recovery.)
We of course will have to wait and see what actually happens in San Diego on the 6th, but if Busby eeks out a win in a basically 60% GOP district, it will send a powerful message about the larger political dynamic in play for the fall midterm.
Keep your eye on this one folks.
Posted by houtopia at May 30, 2006 09:20 PM