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May 21, 2006
On Expanding Congressional Targets
As the polls continue to sink for President Bush, and by association, the Republican Party, many analysts are becoming increasingly bullish about Democrats' prospects for electoral success in the November midterm elections.
A primary issue for debate has been whether or not Democrats can retake the United States House of Representatives -- they need a net gain of 15 seats to do so. While most dispassionate analysts agree Democrats ought to pick up at least some seats in Novmeber, until recently many thought winning the House back unlikely, mostly because of (thanks to redistricting) the lack of competitive districts.
As Adam Nagourney's piece in today's New York Times notes, conventional wisdom may be changing. According to Nagourney, Democrats are expanding their House target list, and challenging some GOP incumbents previously thought to be safe:
"Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election."
The Democrats' more aggressive posture is based on efforts (successful so far) to nationalize this fall's election, and saddle incumbent Republican's with President Bush's hefty political baggage. Again, from the Times:
"One senior Republican strategist, granted anonymity because his assessment would put him at odds with party leaders, said that Democrats were succeeding in their main goal: turning the race into a national referendum on Mr. Bush and the Republican Party. 'Is the race being nationalized?' this strategist said. 'Yes.'"
The piece also, however, sounds a note of caution that Democrats would be wise to heed (we've been a bit of a one-note Johnny on the subject ourselves):
"Some analysts emphasize that it remains early in the season, that the field of vulnerable Republican seats remains relatively small, and — perhaps most significant — that Republicans will have a big spending advantage over Democrats by fall."
In other words, the climate is great right now, but the weather can sure change in six months. Republican incumbents (at both the Congressional and legislative levels) will have funding and plenty of time to paint their opponents with a "liberal and unacceptable" brush. Democratic candidates must remember this is a marathon and fight like hell, all the way to the finish line.
Posted by houtopia at May 21, 2006 11:01 AM