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May 08, 2006
The $64,000 Question
We have written often in recent months about the political climate for change in 2006, and wondered whether or not Democrats -- who have not exactly demonstrated electoral prowess in recent years -- can make real gains in November's midterm election. Many have compared 2006 to the sea-change election of 1994, when the GOP retook Congress for the first time in decades -- power they continue to hold today. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to take back the U.S. House of Representatives, and 6 seats to reclaim the Senate.
As an excellent piece from Ron Brownstein and Janet Hook in today's LA Times points out, neither task will be easy, despite the national mood. In the House, redistricting done after the 2000 Census (along with a wee mid-decade gerrymander here in the Lone Star State) has made defeating incumbent House members a tall order.
For example, in 1994 the non-partisan Cook Report estimated that 100 House races were competitive. The GOP ultimately gained 52 seats. This year, the Cook report only lists 35 seats as competitive, giving Democrats considerably fewer opportunities for success. Gaining 15 seats out of 35 races now does seem doable, but it will not be easy.
In the Senate, 6 seats are needed. The numbers make this takeover less likely, since more of the competitive races are in states carried by President Bush in 2004, rather than states won by John Kerry. The math just doesn't favor it. That said, sometimes major political change defies numerical probability.
The President is still searching for a floor to his collapsing poll numbers (today's Gallup poll hits a new low), and the spike in gas prices, continued bad news from Iraq, and rising health care costs just feed the fire.
As the article states, the national political mood is on a collision course with a rigid political structure. Which one will give? That is the $64,000 question folks.
Posted by houtopia at May 8, 2006 04:59 PM