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June 28, 2006
An Interesting Day
By now, of course, most folks know the United States Supreme Court ruled today on the controversial Texas redistricting plan. The court upheld most of the Tom DeLay-engineered plan, but did invalidate the 23rd Congressional District, currently represented by Henry Bonilla.
As we speculated, Justice Anthony Kennedy was the court's deciding vote, clearly continuing to relish his role as the "swing" jurist at SCOTUS. His decision on this matter, as in previous redistricting cases, defies easy categorization. In short, though Kennedy upheld the right of legislatures to engage in mid-decade redistricting, and denied most of the Texas Democratic plaintiffs' claims, he did cry foul over CD 23, and left open the possibility of future "justiceable" cases against partisan gerrymandering without defining any justiceable standard.
Some may call Kennedy's parsing careful, considered jurisprudence over a difficult issue; others a cop-out that takes the narrowest track possible, conveniently preserving Kennedy's ability to break possible future tie votes. (Two recent Jeffrey Toobin articles in the New Yorker make clear Kennedy quite likes his make or break position on the Court.)
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza notes redistricting winners and losers in The Fix. One clear Texas winner who didn't make Cillizza's column -- Richard Raymond.
Raymond is a talented Democratic state representative from the Laredo area who will almost certainly emerge as a strong Congressional contender, given the Court's ruling. Kuff highlights Raymond's strong statement after the announced decision.
Today's Supreme Court decision was a mixed bag. While essentially only one Congressional district was ruled invalid, any lower court remedy to the 23rd will have some ripple effect to other districts. The breadth of that ripple remains to be seen.
One important point for our partisan Republican friends to consider: allowing mid-decade redistricting cuts both ways. So don't be surprised if some states controlled by Democrats begin making map changes of their own. Hey, if you want to play this way...
Posted by houtopia at 10:22 PM
June 26, 2006
Waiting on Justice
This final week of June has politics watchers keenly focused on two Texas legal cases -- one in Austin, the other in Washington DC. Though unrelated, there is a significant thread linking the two cases, Sugar Land's own (or is it Arlington, VA?) Tom DeLay.
In Austin, federal judge Sam Sparks heard arguments today from both the Texas Democratic Party, which is seeking to force Tom DeLay's name to remain on the November general election ballot for the 22nd Congressional District, and Mr. DeLay, who is seeking to remove himself from the ballot on the grounds that he is now a Virginia resident.
The Statesman recaps the courtroom happenings. Both its and Quorum Report's coverage suggest that the judge, who did not rule on the case today, may be leaning against allowing the Congressman to retire from the race, after having won the GOP primary in March.
Keeping Mr. DeLay on the ballot would be welcome news for CD 22 Democratic nominee Nick Lampson, who suffered a setback last week when Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams failed to certify CD 22 independent candidate hopeful (and former Republican Congressman) Steve Stockman for the ballot.
At the very least, this legal challenge has delayed the GOP's ability to choose a new standard bearer for November, which will handicap the eventual nominee in terms of raising money and putting together an effective campaign in several counties. Meanwhile, word is Lampson continues to raise money at a brisk clip. We shall see.
The American political establishment also awaits the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the controversial Texas redistricting plan -- a plan engineered by none other than the good Congressman (current or retired, depending on your perspective) from Sugar Land. The ruling will come by the end of this week, when the court adjourns for the summer.
The deciding vote will be that of Justice Anthony Kennedy, who has wavered on previous redistricting decisions, and who was likely responsible for the court taking the case in the first place. While Kennedy voted with the majority in upholding the Pennsylvania GOP plan of a few years ago, he has expressed reservations about partisan redistricting, particularly of the mid-decade variety, run amok.
Most speculate that the court will narrowly reject certain portions of the Texas plan, perhaps some combination of the redrawing of the Frost, Doggett and Bonilla seats. It is unclear how ordering the lower court to make specific changes to these or other individual districts might affect the plan as a whole. We will know in a few days.
Hey, if the court invalidates the whole Texas plan (unlikely but possible), we would revert to the 2001 apportionment lines, and candidates would all run in open primaries. Thus, Tom DeLay would get his wish to escape the ballot. There's a tasty bit of irony to ponder -- could DeLay secretly be hoping for the undoing of his own crowning political oeuvre? It's fun to think about, isn't it?
Posted by houtopia at 10:47 PM
June 23, 2006
The Immigration Gamble
Immigration has emerged in this midterm election year as a huge political issue, at the national, state and local levels.
Nationally, the House and Senate are at odds, with each passing very different legislation addressing the issue. The House bill is pretty harsh stuff, focusing on (badly needed) improved border security, but also criminalizing millions of undocumented workers and calling for their repatriation. The Senate favors a more moderate approach, with increased security, but allowing for some kind of status for most of the 11 to 12 million paperless immigrants. Wary of a bloody conference committee fight close to the election, the House has begged off appointing its conferees until after the November midterm.
Similarly, the GOP House leadership finds itself at odds with the party's standard bearer, President George W. Bush, who is much closer to the McCain-Kennedy Senate bill than the ideologues in the lower chamber.
The immigration issue has the potential to fire up the wavering hardcore conservative base, which has been unhappy with the president on a number of fronts of late (immigration included.) Increasingly, GOP Congressional candidates are running away from the president on this issue (and others) in an attempt to stave off a potential backlash election against the ruling party. Witness the recent special election in the San Diego area, where Republican Brian Bilbray won election to replace jailed Duke Cunningham, largely on his use of (and a big gaffe by his opponent)the immigration issue in a Caifornia border district. Early analysis suggests immigration does have some potential electoral pull for the GOP, at least in certain areas.
The larger question is what effect the immigration issue will or will not have on that long-sleeping (and growing) giant in American politics -- the Latino community. Latinos have now surpassed African Americans to become the largest minority group in the U.S. -- about 14% of the nation's population -- but have lagged behind in political power mostly because of low participation in the voting booth.
Much scholarship and political field work have been devoted to analyzing poor Latino participation and improving it. Up to now, despite a lot of research, the voting rates just haven't increased much. There are, of course myriad explanantions offered for the lack of change.
Will this issue this year finally move the needle and bring Latinos to the polls? We may have an interesting test case here in Houston. Word came earlier this week that an anti-immigration group will attempt to gather the necessary 20,000 signatures to place an anti-immigration referendum on the ballot for city voters this fall. No doubt they will get the signatures. But will Latinos in Houston, who constitute a plurality of the city's population but much less of the total vote, will respond to being singled out?
That may be the most important political question that is answered in Texas this fall, and will have profound implications for the state's electoral future.
Posted by houtopia at 05:54 PM
June 20, 2006
Earth to Kerry -- You're Done
When will somebody tell John Kerry he's not going to be president? Never beloved by Democrats, the party faithful sucked it up and backed him in 2004 (many of us with nostrils firmly pinched.)
While Kerry undoubtedly would have brought much more sound policy judgment and competent leadership to the Oval Office than the current occupant (that's not saying much, folks), he hardly inspired devotion as a candidate. Wooden, aloof, pompous... these are just a few words often used to describe the junior senator from Massachusetts.
But what drove us batty during the 2004 campaign was his unbelievable lack of political sense or judgment. (Hey, we work in the business, so that stuff matters around here.) Ah, 2004... those were the days. Anybody remember a different message from Kerry every week? How about doing nothing for weeks while the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth gutted him like a fish? Or our personal favorite, "I actually voted for the $87 billion (for Iraq) before I voted against it" -- vintage Kerry.
Indecisiveness, waffling and poor timing all plagued his campaign. Senator Kerry and his cadre of high-priced perennial loser consultants failed to unseat a vulnerable president, despite an unheard of financial parity with Bush. Ancient history, right?
Wrong. All signs are Kerry wants another bite at the apple -- ugh. And on cue, that signature political tone-deafness is once again on display -- Kerry sings loudly and off key, while his Democratic colleagues variously try to drown him out or turn off his microphone.
Wednesday's NY Times captures the backstage intrigue. Apparently, Senator Kerry has now decided that the war in Iraq was a mistake (after voting to authorize it) and wants to set a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal.
Kerry's proposal, as the article points out, is causing much turmoil within the Democratic caucus as the crucial midterm election approaches. Will the Senator swoop in again to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Please just stop.
It seems Mr. Kerry has yet to figure out what every other Democrat already knows -- he's not going to be the party's nominee in 2008. He had his shot, and he lost. We have moved on, why can't you?
Posted by houtopia at 10:22 PM
June 19, 2006
A Moral Obligation
It has been nearly ten years -- 1997 -- since there has been an increase in the federal minimum wage. It has been stuck at $5.15 an hour (that's $10,712 a year, assuming a 40-hour work week, 52 weeks a year), while the cost of living in America has hardly stood still.
An article from the Chicago Tribune that was printed in today's Chronicle details recent efforts by various states to pass their own higher minimum wage.
A recent Pew Research Center poll found that 83% of Americans support raising the minimum wage to $7.15 an hour -- a 39% increase. In 2004, a state ballot initiative to raise it in Florida passed with 71% in a state President Bush narrowly won. This issue cuts across party lines.
Rewarding work is part of the American ethos -- if you work hard and play by the rules, you should be able to make it. Does anyone actually believe a person can achieve even a modest existence for him or herself (to say nothing of supporting a family) on $5.15 an hour? It seems impossible, yet 2 to 3 million U.S. residents somehow survive on that meager sum.
The old right wing argument against raising the minimum wage -- that it would harm small business and actually eliminate jobs -- has not been borne out by reality. (Imagine that -- a Republican policy view at odds with reality.) In fact, in Wisconsin, where a 14% wage increase was approved by voters, more revenue has been generated. Low wage earners spend the money they have, so increased commerce, sales tax and other revenue follow such a wage increase.
Practical arguments aside, however, we have a moral obligation to ensure that hard-working, law-abiding citizens achieve a decent minimum standard of living. Congress should do the right thing and increase the minimum wage.
Posted by houtopia at 10:59 PM
June 15, 2006
Don't Forget About Hubert
There is a lot of political energy in Texas this year among Democrats, but it may not be focused where you think. To be sure, the party has fielded (largely) a strong slate of statewide candidates for the November 2006 election, but most knowledgeable folks realize they face an uphill battle to win this fall. No Democrat has won statewide in a dozen years, the multi-candidate gubernatorial field favors incumbent Rick Perry, yadda, yadda, yadda... You know the story.
The recent Democratic convention in Ft. Worth was a pretty harmonious affair, as party conventions go, and the large crowd of delegates and activists in attendance warmly received their statewide ticket. Underneath that warm exterior, however, was a cooling feeling that while Texas Democrats are making progress on their journey back to political relevance statewide, noone quite believes they are there yet. The numbers, after all, remain daunting and justifiably color folks' perceptions.
One bright spot for Texas Democrats in an otherwise dreadful 2004 general election result (ah, redistricting...), was the first net gain for the party in the Texas House of Representatives in 30 years -- a whopping one seat, won by a landslide 16 votes. Hey, it was something and it has definitely channeled efforts, expectations and resources in a similar direction for 2006.
In other words, while winning back the governor's mansion would be boffo, many Texas Democrats would be pretty happy taking 4 to 6 House seats net in November, a potentially achievable goal that would threaten the viability of Tom Craddick's speakership.
Strong candidates in key districts around the state -- mostly professional women -- carry the hopes for success. Ellen Cohen and Kristi Thibaut here in Harris County, Valinda Bolton in Travis County, Juan Garcia in Corpus Christi, and Katy Huebner, Harriet Miller & Paula Pierson from the DFW area are the relative unknowns who have fast become household names among party insiders.
These House challengers, among others, represent Texas Democrats' best chance to affect political change in our state this year. We encourage folks to get behind them early, give them the resources they need to run, and work their tails off for them throughout the summer and fall.
But in looking ahead, let's not forget the trendsetter, the 2004 unknown who shocked the Texas political establishment by knocking off the powerful House Appropriations Chair. Please don't forget about Hubert Vo and defending his seat.
As mentioned, Vo won his race by a mere 16 votes two years ago, and is facing the same opponent -- baby stealing Talmadge Heflin -- in 2006. The 149th district becomes more demographically favorable for Hubert every day, and he has acquitted himself as a committed, hardworking member for his constituents in his freshman term. That said, this race won't be easy folks. Hubert needs your help too.
Posted by houtopia at 09:13 PM
June 13, 2006
A Hard Look At Hard Time
Just a few days ago, a distinguished and diverse blue ribbon commission issued a unanimous report on the state of prisons in America today -- Confronting Confinement. The findings are troubling, to put it mildly.
Some 2.2 million Americans are currently incarcerated in 5,000 prisons and jails across the country -- the highest percentage of a nation's population in the world. As state governments continue to enact "tough on crime" legislation, incarceration rates rise accordingly. We build more prisons and lock up more people, stretching resources so that prisoners are increasingly warehoused in hugely overcrowded facilities.
On a positive note, the report cites a significant decrease in deadly prison violence from decades ago, and lauds individual successes in current American correctional work. Clearly, there are bright spots which should be highlighted and replicated wherever possible.
Non-lethal violence, however, remains an enormous problem in American prisons, as do the spread of infectious diseases, poor overall health care and lack of constructive, rehabilitative activities for inmates.
The report stresses that while most Americans have little to no perception of what actually happens inside U.S. prisons, the goings-on have a profound effect on public health and safety, and society on the outside.
The bipartisan committee also found that too many people are being incarcerated today (many for non-violent drug possession crimes), a disproportionate number of them African American and Latino.
The report paints a unflattering overall picture of the state of American corrections today, and challenges us to take a hard look at hard time in this country, and how we can improve things.
Posted by houtopia at 10:11 PM
June 11, 2006
Conventioneering
Houtopia has just returned from the Texas Democratic Party state convention in Ft. Worth; it was, as always, an interesting affair.
Several thousand delegates, members of the press and pols converged on the Ft. Worth Convention Center to see the party's nominees for statewide office, U.S. Congress, the Legislature, and various local offices, as well as to caucus and elect party leaders, most notably a state chair.
Young County Attorney Boyd Richie narrowly defeated former State Representative Glen Maxey to head the state party for the next two years. A surprise choice for the new vice chair prevailed after some masterful politicking by a particularly effective Houston City Hall staffer, and the Asian American Democrats of Texas succeeded in obtaining two new seats on the State Democratic Executive Committee -- a wise move to welcome with open arms this growing minority to full representation within the party.
Gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell delivered an excellent speech on Friday night, again making his case for a new mainstream in Texas, which is the right message, given the party's need to appeal to ordinary Texans in charting a course back to power.
Other speeches varied in quality, but retired general, past and perhaps future presidential candidate Wes Clark's Friday night keynote address stood out. (Disclosure: Houtopia was an early and enthusiastic 2004 Clark supporter and volunteer.)
Clark has grown immensely as a public political figure since his novice run two years ago for the world's highest office. His deep understanding of public policy and commitment to this country have always been evident; it's the delivery that has improved. He is still a work in progress, but definitely on the right track.
Clark writes his own speeches, and the lyric is mostly of good quality. What has changed about his performance is how much more comfortable he is in his own skin these days before audiences large and small. Serious policy fare is now peppered with appropriate political red meat, and accented with a light, humorous touch that reveals a warm, regular guy underneath that formal military bearing.
American politics is often derided as a popularity contest. That's probably an over-simplification, but there is no doubt personality matters to voters. Just look at the current White House occupant. Serious wonks and insiders love to pillory George W. Bush as an incurious, incompetent bumbler, but noone can deny his keen understanding of the importance of connecting with voters on a basic personal level. Despite his privileged upbringing and life, Bush (with Karl Rove's help) successfully sold himself as an everyman to an unwitting American electorate -- to the country's great detriment.
Wes Clark now seems to be finding a balanced recipe for sucess in 2008 -- the sober, thoughtful approach to public policy he has always shown and that we so desperately need today, complimented by a likeable, accessible persona to reach those who are not yet (if ever) scratching beneath the surface.
The question is, of course, will Clark make another run for the White House? For now he's adopted an interested, if coy attitude. It is early, after all, and the field is fluid. Given the problems we face and the frankly lackluster group of current contenders, we sure hope he's in.
Posted by houtopia at 08:08 PM
June 08, 2006
Good Riddance
Regular readers of this site might have expected such a title in light of this last official day of Representative Tom DeLay's "service" to the 22nd Congressional district. His exit was a relatively low key ending to this chapter of the Passion of the Tom. (More dramatic courtroom verse may yet be written.)
Yes, Texas GOP leaders were all set to begin another of those election riggings at which they have become so adept in recent years, albeit this time disenfranchising their own primary voters. Well, democracy's overrated, right?
An Austin judge, however, issued a temporary restraining order today, preventing State Republican Chair Tina Benkiser from raising the curtain on this little electoral farce, on the grounds that DeLay is the properly chosen nominee of CD 22 who is simply abidcating his seat for political reasons. A real stretch, huh? Typical liberal distortion.
Whether that argument will prevail remains to be seen, but at the very least the judge's ruling has likely slowed down the GOP's "renomination" process by at least a month, undoubtedly handicapping whoever ends up being the Republican standard bearer. Ouch. We will watch with interest.
The title of this entry, though, was in fact reserved for this man. As badly as things are going in Iraq these days, we will take the victories we can.
Al-Zarqawi was a despicable person, and the world is a better place with him gone. His death may represent a significant blow to Al Qaeda, at least in Iraq, and does carry symbolic value in the overall ongoing struggle against Islamic terrorism.
Unfortunately, it is not likely to much improve the dreadful situation on the ground in Iraq for our military service personnel or the Iraqi people. That ship, with or without Al-Zarqawi, has sailed and is headed straight for the eye of the storm.
Call it sectarian violence, call it civil war, Iraq has plunged into a death spiral. How do we fix it? Don't bother asking the White House, it's gay marriage week, remember?
Posted by houtopia at 11:10 PM
June 06, 2006
Straddling The Border
Until recently, one could have called President George W. Bush a master of the political tightrope. Guided by his Svengali (or Gepetto, depending on your disposition towards him)-- Karl Rove -- Mr. Bush repeatedly beat the odds in achieving one improbable political victory after another over a ten-year stretch. His hot streak seems to have been bookended by his first political victory against Ann Richards in 1994, and his narrow reelection as president in 2004.
Since besting John Kerry, the president's political luck has run out. He has suffered a series of defeats, as his now dismal approval numbers reflect, and he has clearly lost the majority of Americans' confidence in his ability to do the job. His low standing now threatens his Republican Party's prospects for the approaching fall midterm election.
Perhaps more troubling for the White House is the recent erosion in support for the president among conservatives. The "base" is not happy with George W. -- its dissatisfaction summed up in this recent Washington Post piece from right wing PR guru Richard Viguerie.
So, with the president's public standing at a nadir approaching Nixonian territory, he begins to carry the torch for his compromise (and frankly, reasonable) immigration reform. His plan, which combines increased border enforcement with a guest worker program and long-term path to citizenship for undocumented workers, is essentially what the U.S. Senate has passed.
The U.S. House, meanwhile, driven by ideological leaders from the aforementioned "base", is having none of it. Its bill is all enforcement all the time, with expulsion of "criminal illegals" thrown in for good measure. This, folks is what the base wants. (Witness this GOP presidential straw poll result from Michigan, which House anti-immigration crusader Tom Tancredo of Colorado won without even getting serious mention as a 2008 contender.)
It is in this context we find President Bush today, taking a break from beating the gay marriage drum on Capitol Hill (a feeble attempt to bring the straying base back into the fold) to get a photo-op with Border Patrol agents in southeastern New Mexico.
Mr. Bush's efforts to find the common ground among the House and Senate bills, and simultaneously advocate for tough enforcement and compassion toward immigrants seemed strained to say the least. This is a tough issue any way you slice it, and the president takes a big political hit on this one no matter what he says or does.
If he is too heavy on the enforcement side, he risks detonating the bridges he has built (and from which the GOP has modestly benefitted) among Latino voters, as well as alienating his big business contributor crowd, which likes the inexpensive labor undocumented workers provide. If there's too much "amnesty" in his words and deeds, that grousing base is likely to revolt, and stay home from the fall midterms.
Adding to the difficulty is President Bush's already weakened political stature. Long gone are those post-9/11 halcyon days of 90% approval ratings and dreams of a permanent Republican realignment. This guy is just trying to stave off lame duck disease before his time.
A real pickle, no?
Posted by houtopia at 03:47 PM
June 03, 2006
There's Always Utah
It is hardly a secret that President George W. Bush's poll numbers have been sinking like a stone nationally since his reelection in 2004. With an overall approval rating consistently in the mid to low 30s over the last several months, it is clear most Americans have abandoned him -- perhaps finally waking up to the litany of obfuscation and incompetence that has defined this administration.
Utah to the rescue. In Sunday's New York Times, Timothy Egan reports that the home of HBO's "Big Love" is standing by its man -- sort of. This state, known for its fantastic skiing, stunning mountainous desert, and racially and religiously homogenous population still gives the President a 51% approval rating, according to a recent Survey USA poll.
While Utah remains one of only three states still rating the President at or above 50% (neighboring Wyoming and Idaho are the others), perhaps more surprising is that even 46% of Utahans now disapprove of Mr. Bush's job performance. A bit of context helps understand the significance of the high disapproval number.
The vast majority of Utah's residents (and nearly everyone outside of its capitol and sole major urban area Salt Lake City) are members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints -- Mormons. The Mormon church demands of its members unflinching obendience to its rather unusual (and very socially conservative) tenets, and its followers willingly oblige. In short, Mormons are sheep. They do what they are told and don't ask questions. Just read several of the Utahans quoted in the Times piece, and you get the idea.
So, that Mr. Bush maintains a slim majority of support in a state where nearly everyone is white, conservative and belongs to the same church, can hardly be heartening news to those at the White House, but these days we suspect they will take what they can get.
And given President Bush's decidedly tepid home state numbers in that same Survey USA poll, it may be time to relocate the "Western White House" from Crawford to Provo.
Posted by houtopia at 10:43 PM
June 01, 2006
Making The Case For Fraud
For the record, we are generally suspicious of most conspiracy theories. While many found it incomprehensible that George W. Bush could be reelected in 2004, we did not. Though John Kerry dramatically increased Democratic turnout over the 2000 election, he was not a particularly well-liked candidate, and was damaged (in part, due to his own failure to promptly respond) by very effective attacks from the Republican smear machine.
In addition, Karl Rove's stunning success at using divisive social issues (gay marriage, abortion) to turn out millions of new religious conservative voters has been well documented. In short, Kerry got a whole lot of new voters to the polls -- Bush got more.
Nonetheless, we have been somewhat puzzled (and troubled) by myriad reports of voter disenfranchisement, in various forms, during the 2004 election, particularly in "battleground" states like Ohio. Undoubtedly, serious reservations about the validity of the 2000 presidential election result color our perspective.
In the latest issue of Rolling Stone magazine, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes a detailed and pretty compelling case that team Bush went two for two in stealing presidential elections.
His argument centers principally around two big issues: the enormous discrepancies between exit poll results (which are historically very accurate) and actual votes, with nearly all the benefit redounding to President Bush; and widespread systematic efforts to suppress and deny Democratic voting. Ohio, of course, is Kennedy's ground zero for fraud. The principal villain is Ohio GOP Secretary of State (and now gubernatorial candidate) Ken Blackwell.
The piece is long, and can be a bit tedious, but overall well worth reading. The findings are troubling, to say the least, though we still cannot be sure they add up to a stolen election. Given, however, this administration's now widely recognized pattern of deception and dishonesty, we hardly find the idea a stretch.
No doubt, refutations will emerge in the coming days, and we eagerly await them. For the sake of American democracy we hope Mr. Kennedy is wrong about what happened in 2004. But we have hoped for many things over the last several years that did not come to pass.
Read the article and judge for yourself.
Posted by houtopia at 11:00 PM