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June 06, 2006
Straddling The Border
Until recently, one could have called President George W. Bush a master of the political tightrope. Guided by his Svengali (or Gepetto, depending on your disposition towards him)-- Karl Rove -- Mr. Bush repeatedly beat the odds in achieving one improbable political victory after another over a ten-year stretch. His hot streak seems to have been bookended by his first political victory against Ann Richards in 1994, and his narrow reelection as president in 2004.
Since besting John Kerry, the president's political luck has run out. He has suffered a series of defeats, as his now dismal approval numbers reflect, and he has clearly lost the majority of Americans' confidence in his ability to do the job. His low standing now threatens his Republican Party's prospects for the approaching fall midterm election.
Perhaps more troubling for the White House is the recent erosion in support for the president among conservatives. The "base" is not happy with George W. -- its dissatisfaction summed up in this recent Washington Post piece from right wing PR guru Richard Viguerie.
So, with the president's public standing at a nadir approaching Nixonian territory, he begins to carry the torch for his compromise (and frankly, reasonable) immigration reform. His plan, which combines increased border enforcement with a guest worker program and long-term path to citizenship for undocumented workers, is essentially what the U.S. Senate has passed.
The U.S. House, meanwhile, driven by ideological leaders from the aforementioned "base", is having none of it. Its bill is all enforcement all the time, with expulsion of "criminal illegals" thrown in for good measure. This, folks is what the base wants. (Witness this GOP presidential straw poll result from Michigan, which House anti-immigration crusader Tom Tancredo of Colorado won without even getting serious mention as a 2008 contender.)
It is in this context we find President Bush today, taking a break from beating the gay marriage drum on Capitol Hill (a feeble attempt to bring the straying base back into the fold) to get a photo-op with Border Patrol agents in southeastern New Mexico.
Mr. Bush's efforts to find the common ground among the House and Senate bills, and simultaneously advocate for tough enforcement and compassion toward immigrants seemed strained to say the least. This is a tough issue any way you slice it, and the president takes a big political hit on this one no matter what he says or does.
If he is too heavy on the enforcement side, he risks detonating the bridges he has built (and from which the GOP has modestly benefitted) among Latino voters, as well as alienating his big business contributor crowd, which likes the inexpensive labor undocumented workers provide. If there's too much "amnesty" in his words and deeds, that grousing base is likely to revolt, and stay home from the fall midterms.
Adding to the difficulty is President Bush's already weakened political stature. Long gone are those post-9/11 halcyon days of 90% approval ratings and dreams of a permanent Republican realignment. This guy is just trying to stave off lame duck disease before his time.
A real pickle, no?
Posted by houtopia at June 6, 2006 03:47 PM