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August 29, 2006
Making A Move
The 2006 midterm election is shaping up as one of the most unpredictable in recent years, both nationally and here in Texas. President Bush is damaged political goods these days, limping toward lame duck status, and is clearly hurting his party's electoral prospects in November. In the Lone Star State, an unpopular incumbent governor -- Rick Perry -- faces four challengers (three of them serious), who so far (and to his advantage) have succeeded only in dividing his opposition.
National pundits now believe Democrats have an excellent shot at retaking the U.S. House of Representatives on November 7th. They need to net 15 seats to do so, once thought to be a long shot. Gradually, however, the number of seats "in play" has grown to as many as 50 by some estimates, with even the lone Wyoming district now in play. (An almost certain, and no doubt unplanned for loss of the Texas 22nd Congressional seat does not help the GOP's chances of hanging on to control of the House.)
Stu Rothenberg, author of Washington's non-partisan and respected Rothenberg Report, now estimates Democrats will gain 15 to 20 House seats, enough to take back control.
With the Texas Governor's race, despite a weak incumbent mired for months in the mid-30s% range for job approval and reelection, a crowded field of challengers packed close together has split the anti-Perry vote enough to virtually guarantee Governor Good Hair another term.
Perry's thought to be principal challenger, political Independent and current Republican State Comptroller (she also used to be a Democrat) Carole Strayhorn is well funded, but has thus far run a campaign remarkable only for its lack of focus and ineffectiveness. Rather than making a serious case to voters on the merits of her candidacy and against the failed record of the incumbent, to date Strayhorn has spent most of her time unsuccessfully petitioning the Texas Secretary of State to be referred to as "Grandma" on the ballot. Not serious stuff folks.
The other Independent challenger, Kinky Friedman, has never waivered from his politically incorrect wisecracking schtick -- an amusing routine (until you have heard it for the fifth time), but is running nothing more than a joke candidacy. Friedman is attracting support though, from both urban liberals and angry conservatives seeking a safe protest vote against Perry.
Almost lost in the pack over the summer has been the Democratic standard bearer -- Chris Bell -- who, lacking significant financial resources, has tried to make substantive appeals to the free media (the press), with only modest success. Many had begun to wonder if the other major party candidate would run third, or even fourth in this wacky Governor's race.
Most recent polls have showed the Governor's reelect number stuck in the mid 30s, with each of his rivals hovering between 15 and 20% support. While Perry's numbers are far from good, with no challenger emerging from the pack, he has appeared in good shape to win in November.
Ah, but it's early. Yesterday showed the first signs of movement in the race. The new Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll came out showing slight slippage for Perry, a surge for Bell and Friedman, and a near collapse for One Tough Grandma Strayhorn. Time will tell if the poll is an outlier -- Texas Monthly's Paul Burka is dubious of its resuts -- but it's been good news for Bell and disastrous for Strayhorn.
Kinky will get some votes in November, but it is difficult to imagine that when push comes to shove, he will get the kind of support he has now. Historically, candidates like him get about half of what they poll.
With that in mind, there does seem to be opening for Bell to make a move in the race. He's not yet well known in the state, and does not carry Perry's or Strayhorn's negatives -- negatives which are likely to increase when they begin savaging one another on television after Labor Day. What Bell lacks is money. Burka's piece also hints that some of Strayhorn's big financial backers (many of them plaintiff's attorneys) are weighing a switch in support to Bell.
If Strayhorn continues her slide, gets into a nasty feud with Perry, and money does come Bell's way, the Democrat will have a shot at winning, albeit a small one. Stay tuned -- this fall figures to be quite interesting, though it's anybody's guess what will happen.
Posted by houtopia at 06:31 PM
August 23, 2006
Playing The Terror Card
For those skeptical White House watchers, the breaking (and subsequent uber-hyping) of the foiled British hijacker plot story had all the familiar symptoms of Bush Administration fear-mongering. While the arrest of these would-be murderers was certainly welcome news, the timing of the story was suspicious. The Administration had known for days what was happening and tried to milk it in the press for maximum effect.
And since Team Bush's playing of the terror card had paid large political dividends in the past, who could blame them for going once more to the well? As one poll-watcher noted last week, however, the political benefit for the White House seems to have been significantly lower than in the past, to say the least. As we all know, crying wolf has its limits.
In today's Washington Post, Chris Cillizza picks up the story, looking at how the broader issue of terrorism may play in the upcoming November midterm election.
His look at several new polls shows that support for the president on the issue of terrorism has inched up again, about the only half-decent grade he gets from the American public these days. His overall job approval remains mired around 40%, with strong support being outweighed by strong opposition nearly 2 to 1.
But while Bush's numbers on terrorism are OK, Cillizza notes just how far he (and the Republican Party) have fallen on this issue since those halcyon pre-Iraq days of 2002. For example, a recent WaPo poll showed 46% of respondents trusted Republicans to best handle terrorism, compared to 38% for Democrats -- a modest GOP advantage. Rewind to the Post's October 2002 poll, where 61% gave Republicans the edge on terrorism, compared to just 26% for Democrats. Quite a drop.
White House political guru Karl Rove long ago laid out his strategy to once again use the terrorism issue for GOP gain in this fall's election. And considering President Bush's dismal public standing on virtually every other issue and his overall job performance, who could blame him? But while recent polls show a small Republican advantage on this issue remains, it may be this card has been played one too many times to have the desired effect.
We shall see in 76 days.
Posted by houtopia at 02:39 PM
August 14, 2006
The Lay Of The Land
We have, along with many others, devoted a considerable amount of writing in recent months to the national, state and local political climate as the 2006 fall midterm election approaches. Nationally, will the Democrats retake Congress? What will happen in Texas, or in Harris County? Just under three months before Election Day, much remains to be seen.
At the local level, Harris County will be home to several competitive races for the Texas House of Representatives -- specifically in Districts 133, 134 and 149. Additionally, a handful of Democratic countywide candidates -- Chuck Silverman, Richard Garcia, Mary Kay Green and James G. Pierre -- will at least flirt with 50% this November. Too soon to say if anybody actually wins.
Statewide, while Governor Rick Perry is weak, he must be breathing easier these days. His chief independent rival, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, has run a poor campaign to date, despite having plenty of money. The Democratic nominee, Chris Bell, is an attractive candidate but woefully underfunded for a statewide race. Kinky Friedman has strong early support, without even running a serious campaign. Perry looks poised to limp into to another term with less than 40% of the vote. Democrats should pick up at least a few State House seats in November, which may or may not jeopardize Tom Craddick's speakership.
Clearly the most watched battle nationally will be for the U.S. House of Representatives, and Texas may play a role. Republicans control the House by a mere 15 seats out of 435, and as Monday's Washington Post highlights, numerous GOP incumbents in the Northeast are in big trouble.
Control of the House may hinge on a single race, which only adds to the widespread shock over the GOP essentially conceding Tom DeLay's seat in a solidly Republican district before the opening bell has even rung. Henry Bonilla's precarious position after a Supreme Court-mandated redraw adds a second possible Democratic pickup in Texas. With the House hanging in the balance and low national polling numbers, can the GOP survive losing two seats in the solidly red Lone Star State?
2006 is a strange political year, to be sure. Stay tuned folks.
Posted by houtopia at 10:54 PM
August 11, 2006
On Republican Turnout
As we wrote in a recent posting, even in a favorable political climate Democratic candidates face a significant challenge in turning out their base voters. Despite widespread dissatisfaction among Democrats with the Bush administration and overall Republican governance, we detect no real signs so far (at least in Harris County) of a groundswell to actually vote in November.
An oft-repeated notion in recent weeks, however, has been that this year Republicans too will have a difficult time turning out their party faithful on November 7th. The argument goes that anger nationally over rising gas prices and health care costs, a protracted, expensive war with no conclusion in sight, and a perception among religious conservatives that George W. Bush has failed to deliver on the social issues that motivate them has taken a toll with GOP base voters.
Here in Texas we add unhappiness with Governor Rick Perry and the Republican-controlled State Legislature over the business tax and failure to pass property tax appraisal caps to the mix, as well as the coming campaign ugliness between Governor Good Hair and rival Carole Keeton Strayhorn, and we have a recipe for depressed GOP turnout in November. Well, maybe.
As noted in the latest issue of US News & World Report, new polling has Republican insiders feeling pretty darn good about turning out their folks this fall, with confidence that they will vote to return their party's elected officials to power. The article cites a recent strategic memo to national GOP Party Chair Ken Mehlman from Market Strategies, which highlights polling (granted, six-week old polling) showing the base is in line and ready to hit the polls.
Is this spin or is it true? Obviously no way to tell at this point, but any Democratic victory strategy that assumes weak Republican turnout as a key to winning is folly. Democrats should count on having to win in spite of solid GOP voter performance -- any dropoff will be gravy. To be safe, just remember that old joke about the Republican voter who drives past his polling place once a week, just to make sure there's not an election going on. Except it's no joke.
In other words, the mantra for Democratic candidates this political season: persuade everyone you can, turn out your base, and assume all the other guy's usual folks will vote. In other words Democrats, work like hell until November 7th.
Posted by houtopia at 05:53 PM
August 09, 2006
Quite A Day
Tuesday, August 8th was a most interesting day politically, both here in the Houston area and at the national level.
Here at home, the protracted battle over Congressional District 22 seems to have ended, three full months before Election Day. By removing his name from the ballot, Mr. DeLay has left his fellow Republicans only the option of writing in a candidate, which effectively concedes the seat to Democratic nominee Nick Lampson. No single write-in candidate will be able to earn 50% of the vote, whether the local GOP gets behind one person or not.
It was a fascinating end to a dramatic story, which saw one of the most powerful men in America become what he once despised and fall precipitously into political ruin and serious legal difficulty. On the other side, a long-shot gamble by a former Congressman who had fallen prey to DeLay's redistricting plan appears to have paid off big. Barring a catastrophe, Nick Lampson will be the next Congressman from the 22nd District. Whether he can hold the seat in two years remains to be seen, but for now spirits are high on the Lampson team.
Nationally, as many predicted, Connecticut Senator and former vice-presidential nominee Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic primary to newcomer Ned Lamont, though not by the large margin some had forecast. In losing 52-48%, Lieberman paid the price with the party faithful for his aggressive support of the Iraq War and ties to President George W. Bush.
Lieberman did offer a mea culpa of sorts in the campaigns final weekend, which tightened the race up significantly, but he simply waited too long, a move indicative of his out of touch campaign. His fate was not unusual for politicians who lose the pulse of their constituents.
But the story is not over. Lieberman will run as an Independent this fall, and the result is anybody's guess at this point.
Finally, in Georgia, controversial Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney was jettisoned by primary voters in her district -- the second such defeat for her in recent years.
Her latest flare-up was an altercation with a Capitol Hill police officer several months ago, and perhaps reminded the voters of the 4th Congressional District why they had voted her out four years ago. Her opponent, Henry C. Johnson Jr., an attorney and former DeKalb County commissioner, won easily with 58% of the vote.
Yesterday's events only solidify the notion that great political change may be afoot in 2006. We shall see.
Posted by houtopia at 11:03 AM
August 07, 2006
Lieberman's Last Stand?
In the small New England state of Connecticut, the first major electoral battle of the 2006 midterm takes place tomorrow. Three-term Democratic U.S. Senator and 2000 vice-presidential nominee Joe Lieberman faces a huge primary challenge from wealthy scion and political novice Ned Lamont. The Times has the rundown.
Lieberman, who has been criticized by liberal Democrats over his support for the Iraq War and perceived coziness with President George W. Bush, has trailed by as much as double digits in recent polls, but appeared to be closing the gap in Quinnipac's latest survey.
This race is being watched by some as a bellweather of the Democratic Party's national direction on foreign policy, but may more accurately intimate just how motivated the party base is to turn out for change in 2006.
From a distance, Lieberman seems to have hurt himself by his tone as much as his actions. After all, most Democrats on Capitol Hill voted to give President Bush carte blanche in Iraq, including New York Senator Hillary Clinton. Lieberman's votes are hardly unusual.
More damaging would seem to be his inability to strike the right chord with an angry, deeply polarized electorate. Lieberman is a consensus builder, an admirable trait not often seen in today's Washington. But he represents an overwhelmingly Democratic state, where Bush is highly unpopular. Political reality suggests it would behoove Joe to distance himself from the administration, to put it mildly.
Lieberman has apparently finally done that, in an unusual two-minute TV ad. Will it be enough to save Joe and return him to Washington for a fourth term? We shall see. Of course, even if he loses, he's filed to run as an Independent. We await Tuesday's returns with great interest.
Posted by houtopia at 11:26 PM
August 01, 2006
It's Turnout, Stupid
As myriad media reports over the last several months have made clear, Democrats have a real opportunity to make electoral gains in the November 2006 midterm election. The public is dissatisfied with the current direction of the country and wants change. But will this year's opportunity be realized?
To be sure, an important component of Democrats' formula for success is persuading moderate voters -- independents and soft Republicans -- to cast a vote for a particular, palatable candidate in a Congressional, legislative or judicial race. Democratic campaigns must deliver a message of change and accountability to this disgruntled "swing" portion of the electorate.
Equally important for Ds, however, is "base" turnout. The Democratic vote traditionally plummets during non-presidential election years, while the Republican vote holds much steadier. Despite the aforementioned voter dissatisfaction, there has been no evidence so far that the Democratic base, save a small number of activists, is particularly motivated to vote the bums out. (Our own recent experiences campaigning in Harris County bear this out.)
Wednesday's Washington Post picks up on the story, and highlights concern among national Democrats about base voter turnout, as well as efforts to improve it.
Democrats cannot settle for choosing either swing voter persuasion or turning out the base. They must do both, and they better get cracking. As the article notes, waiting until the last minute is not likely to yield success. The GOP started early and often in 2004, and boy, did it work. Part of success is learning from those who are consistently beating you.
Here's hoping for a learning curve.
Posted by houtopia at 11:04 PM