« A Sad Sign | Main | Lieberman's Last Stand? »
August 01, 2006
It's Turnout, Stupid
As myriad media reports over the last several months have made clear, Democrats have a real opportunity to make electoral gains in the November 2006 midterm election. The public is dissatisfied with the current direction of the country and wants change. But will this year's opportunity be realized?
To be sure, an important component of Democrats' formula for success is persuading moderate voters -- independents and soft Republicans -- to cast a vote for a particular, palatable candidate in a Congressional, legislative or judicial race. Democratic campaigns must deliver a message of change and accountability to this disgruntled "swing" portion of the electorate.
Equally important for Ds, however, is "base" turnout. The Democratic vote traditionally plummets during non-presidential election years, while the Republican vote holds much steadier. Despite the aforementioned voter dissatisfaction, there has been no evidence so far that the Democratic base, save a small number of activists, is particularly motivated to vote the bums out. (Our own recent experiences campaigning in Harris County bear this out.)
Wednesday's Washington Post picks up on the story, and highlights concern among national Democrats about base voter turnout, as well as efforts to improve it.
Democrats cannot settle for choosing either swing voter persuasion or turning out the base. They must do both, and they better get cracking. As the article notes, waiting until the last minute is not likely to yield success. The GOP started early and often in 2004, and boy, did it work. Part of success is learning from those who are consistently beating you.
Here's hoping for a learning curve.
Posted by houtopia at August 1, 2006 11:04 PM