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August 29, 2006
Making A Move
The 2006 midterm election is shaping up as one of the most unpredictable in recent years, both nationally and here in Texas. President Bush is damaged political goods these days, limping toward lame duck status, and is clearly hurting his party's electoral prospects in November. In the Lone Star State, an unpopular incumbent governor -- Rick Perry -- faces four challengers (three of them serious), who so far (and to his advantage) have succeeded only in dividing his opposition.
National pundits now believe Democrats have an excellent shot at retaking the U.S. House of Representatives on November 7th. They need to net 15 seats to do so, once thought to be a long shot. Gradually, however, the number of seats "in play" has grown to as many as 50 by some estimates, with even the lone Wyoming district now in play. (An almost certain, and no doubt unplanned for loss of the Texas 22nd Congressional seat does not help the GOP's chances of hanging on to control of the House.)
Stu Rothenberg, author of Washington's non-partisan and respected Rothenberg Report, now estimates Democrats will gain 15 to 20 House seats, enough to take back control.
With the Texas Governor's race, despite a weak incumbent mired for months in the mid-30s% range for job approval and reelection, a crowded field of challengers packed close together has split the anti-Perry vote enough to virtually guarantee Governor Good Hair another term.
Perry's thought to be principal challenger, political Independent and current Republican State Comptroller (she also used to be a Democrat) Carole Strayhorn is well funded, but has thus far run a campaign remarkable only for its lack of focus and ineffectiveness. Rather than making a serious case to voters on the merits of her candidacy and against the failed record of the incumbent, to date Strayhorn has spent most of her time unsuccessfully petitioning the Texas Secretary of State to be referred to as "Grandma" on the ballot. Not serious stuff folks.
The other Independent challenger, Kinky Friedman, has never waivered from his politically incorrect wisecracking schtick -- an amusing routine (until you have heard it for the fifth time), but is running nothing more than a joke candidacy. Friedman is attracting support though, from both urban liberals and angry conservatives seeking a safe protest vote against Perry.
Almost lost in the pack over the summer has been the Democratic standard bearer -- Chris Bell -- who, lacking significant financial resources, has tried to make substantive appeals to the free media (the press), with only modest success. Many had begun to wonder if the other major party candidate would run third, or even fourth in this wacky Governor's race.
Most recent polls have showed the Governor's reelect number stuck in the mid 30s, with each of his rivals hovering between 15 and 20% support. While Perry's numbers are far from good, with no challenger emerging from the pack, he has appeared in good shape to win in November.
Ah, but it's early. Yesterday showed the first signs of movement in the race. The new Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll came out showing slight slippage for Perry, a surge for Bell and Friedman, and a near collapse for One Tough Grandma Strayhorn. Time will tell if the poll is an outlier -- Texas Monthly's Paul Burka is dubious of its resuts -- but it's been good news for Bell and disastrous for Strayhorn.
Kinky will get some votes in November, but it is difficult to imagine that when push comes to shove, he will get the kind of support he has now. Historically, candidates like him get about half of what they poll.
With that in mind, there does seem to be opening for Bell to make a move in the race. He's not yet well known in the state, and does not carry Perry's or Strayhorn's negatives -- negatives which are likely to increase when they begin savaging one another on television after Labor Day. What Bell lacks is money. Burka's piece also hints that some of Strayhorn's big financial backers (many of them plaintiff's attorneys) are weighing a switch in support to Bell.
If Strayhorn continues her slide, gets into a nasty feud with Perry, and money does come Bell's way, the Democrat will have a shot at winning, albeit a small one. Stay tuned -- this fall figures to be quite interesting, though it's anybody's guess what will happen.
Posted by houtopia at August 29, 2006 06:31 PM