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August 11, 2006
On Republican Turnout
As we wrote in a recent posting, even in a favorable political climate Democratic candidates face a significant challenge in turning out their base voters. Despite widespread dissatisfaction among Democrats with the Bush administration and overall Republican governance, we detect no real signs so far (at least in Harris County) of a groundswell to actually vote in November.
An oft-repeated notion in recent weeks, however, has been that this year Republicans too will have a difficult time turning out their party faithful on November 7th. The argument goes that anger nationally over rising gas prices and health care costs, a protracted, expensive war with no conclusion in sight, and a perception among religious conservatives that George W. Bush has failed to deliver on the social issues that motivate them has taken a toll with GOP base voters.
Here in Texas we add unhappiness with Governor Rick Perry and the Republican-controlled State Legislature over the business tax and failure to pass property tax appraisal caps to the mix, as well as the coming campaign ugliness between Governor Good Hair and rival Carole Keeton Strayhorn, and we have a recipe for depressed GOP turnout in November. Well, maybe.
As noted in the latest issue of US News & World Report, new polling has Republican insiders feeling pretty darn good about turning out their folks this fall, with confidence that they will vote to return their party's elected officials to power. The article cites a recent strategic memo to national GOP Party Chair Ken Mehlman from Market Strategies, which highlights polling (granted, six-week old polling) showing the base is in line and ready to hit the polls.
Is this spin or is it true? Obviously no way to tell at this point, but any Democratic victory strategy that assumes weak Republican turnout as a key to winning is folly. Democrats should count on having to win in spite of solid GOP voter performance -- any dropoff will be gravy. To be safe, just remember that old joke about the Republican voter who drives past his polling place once a week, just to make sure there's not an election going on. Except it's no joke.
In other words, the mantra for Democratic candidates this political season: persuade everyone you can, turn out your base, and assume all the other guy's usual folks will vote. In other words Democrats, work like hell until November 7th.
Posted by houtopia at August 11, 2006 05:53 PM