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August 14, 2006
The Lay Of The Land
We have, along with many others, devoted a considerable amount of writing in recent months to the national, state and local political climate as the 2006 fall midterm election approaches. Nationally, will the Democrats retake Congress? What will happen in Texas, or in Harris County? Just under three months before Election Day, much remains to be seen.
At the local level, Harris County will be home to several competitive races for the Texas House of Representatives -- specifically in Districts 133, 134 and 149. Additionally, a handful of Democratic countywide candidates -- Chuck Silverman, Richard Garcia, Mary Kay Green and James G. Pierre -- will at least flirt with 50% this November. Too soon to say if anybody actually wins.
Statewide, while Governor Rick Perry is weak, he must be breathing easier these days. His chief independent rival, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, has run a poor campaign to date, despite having plenty of money. The Democratic nominee, Chris Bell, is an attractive candidate but woefully underfunded for a statewide race. Kinky Friedman has strong early support, without even running a serious campaign. Perry looks poised to limp into to another term with less than 40% of the vote. Democrats should pick up at least a few State House seats in November, which may or may not jeopardize Tom Craddick's speakership.
Clearly the most watched battle nationally will be for the U.S. House of Representatives, and Texas may play a role. Republicans control the House by a mere 15 seats out of 435, and as Monday's Washington Post highlights, numerous GOP incumbents in the Northeast are in big trouble.
Control of the House may hinge on a single race, which only adds to the widespread shock over the GOP essentially conceding Tom DeLay's seat in a solidly Republican district before the opening bell has even rung. Henry Bonilla's precarious position after a Supreme Court-mandated redraw adds a second possible Democratic pickup in Texas. With the House hanging in the balance and low national polling numbers, can the GOP survive losing two seats in the solidly red Lone Star State?
2006 is a strange political year, to be sure. Stay tuned folks.
Posted by houtopia at August 14, 2006 10:54 PM