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September 30, 2006
Stealing Focus
Karl Rove should never be underestimated during campaign season. Apparently free of his own legal troubles (at least for now), Rove has been able, over the last few months, to turn his full attention and considerable skill toward saving the 2006 midterm elections for his boss and party. And arguably, he's been making progress.
Rove has (correctly, in our judgment) calculated that the GOP's best hopes for retaining control of Congress rest on broadly making the election about which party voters can trust to successfully fight terrorism, and narrowly about making Democratic challengers in individual races unacceptable. Viciously negative TV ads against Democratic challengers have begun running in competitive U.S. House districts across the country.
Rove's strategy, however, has encountered some hiccups of late. First, was the seemingly principled blockage by Arizona Senator John McCain and others of legislation loosening restrictions on treatment of detainees suspected of terrorist involvement. Rove had counted on getting Democrats on the record opposing the President, and then using that vote to undermine their credibility on national security.
He didn't count on resistance from within his own party. McCain, widely assumed to be running for president in 2008, at first stood up and opposed the bill, only to fold later on. The White House reached a "compromise" with McCain and his group, and Bush/Rove got their legislation. The very public internal GOP battle over it, however, has likely sapped the issue of some its political punch.
Yesterday came real trouble. Underage sex scandals in Congress are never good news for those involved, particularly those of the same-sex variety. In a year when control of the U.S. House may come down to just a seat or two, the GOP must now add a seat they expected to win -- the Florida 16th -- to the likely loss column. Given that the Texas 22nd is almost certainly lost, Republicans now face a two-seat deficit from the get-go.
Much worse, however, is the rapidly unfolding story that the GOP House leadership knew of Rep. Foley's "indiscretions" for months and did nothing about them. And that, friends, has political disaster written all over it. Just remember what happened to the Catholic Church.
Stay tuned...
Posted by houtopia at 08:37 AM
September 26, 2006
A Strategic Blow-Up
With just six weeks remaining before the 2006 midterm election, former President Bill Clinton lobbed a big political grenade over the weekend, once again displaying his Jedi status as a partisan warrior.
In a now much-publicized interview with Fox News' Chris Wallace that aired Sunday morning, the Big Dog went to town on the hapless Wallace, who's network was trying to sandbag Clinton with questions about the failure to get Osama Bin Laden while he was president. (The premise of the interview was to discuss Clinton's work on climate change.)
It seems Roger Ailes and his crew at Fox News forgot they were dealing with the greatest political talent of the last century. Clinton turned the interview around, forcefully defending his own record, while simultaneously hammering the right wing disinformation campaign responsible for smearing him.
This was no sandbagging, folks. Bill Clinton knew exactly what he was walking into, and masterfully turned it to his and other Democrats' advantage. Slate's John Dickerson captures exactly our thinking on the interview in a new online piece.
Bill Clinton understands that midterm elections are largely about motivating base voters, and with just over 40 days to go before the election, his spirited defense/attack will fan the flames of anger on the left against the right-wingers in charge.
Another great political performance from the master.
Posted by houtopia at 10:48 AM
September 20, 2006
The Latest Guv's Poll
Survey USA is out with its latest snapshot of the Texas Governor's race, and the results are most interesting:
If the election for Governor of Texas were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Rick Perry? Democrat Chris Bell? Libertarian James Werner? Independent Richard "Kinky" Friedman? Independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn? Or some other candidate?
35% Perry (R) (35%)
23% Bell (D) (20%)
2% Werner (L)
23% Friedman (I) (21%)
15% Strayhorn (I) (19%)
2% Undecided
The numbers in parentheses are each candidate's rating in the June poll.
Perry's numbers are flat as a board, even after an onslaught of warm, fuzzy and false TV ads, but if they stay where they are he probably get reelected. Bell continues to creep up, despite basically no media spending in recent weeks, likely by continuing to solidify the Democratic base. Kinky has also crept up, as his rightward thrust of late may have picked off some conservatives, at least temporarily.
Strayhorn, as Texas Monthly's Paul Burka notes in his blog, looks dead. Despite her flight of soft positive TV ads, her numbers are headed south. As Burka correctly observes, she now has little choice but to go thermonuclear on the Guv.
The only chance to beat Perry at this point is if Grandma beats him to a pulp over the next six weeks, while Perry's opposition coalesces around Bell. For that to happen, Bell must be on TV -- statewide -- for the last month running positive ads, an expensive and unlikely proposition. Stranger things have happened.
Posted by houtopia at 12:54 PM
September 14, 2006
Goodbye Ann Richards
Yesterday, Texas lost another political legend -- Governor Ann Richards.
Ann Richards blazed a trail in Texas. Underneath her classic Texas dame appearance and disarming folksy manner burned a passionate, committed progressive. She dedicated her public life to advancing opportunities for women and minorities in this state, to granting a seat at the table to those who had always been treated as second-class citizens (or worse.)
Governor Richards' reelection loss to George W. Bush in 1994 banished Texas Democrats to the political wilderness, a wilderness from which they have yet to emerge. Over these last dozen years, Ann Richards' frequent public and media appearances were always bittersweet for us -- evoking sadness over how far this great state has fallen, but also admiration for her grace and humor during tough times, and an inkling of hope that things might one day improve.
Many of us sense that the path out of the wilderness has at last been joined in Texas. The journey will likely be slow and difficult, but we will get there. What a shame that Ann Richards will not be here to share in that victory, whenever it may occur. Her life and example should inspire us to redouble our efforts, to fight that much harder for a better Texas and nation.
Brava, Ann Richards, for a life well lived. We will miss you, but we won't quit fighting.
Posted by houtopia at 09:50 AM
September 11, 2006
Kinky As Spoiler
For many months, the conventional wisdom has held that independent Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman would serve as spoiler to Democrat Chris Bell and virtually guarantee another term for current Governor Rick Perry. The idea has been that the seemingly left-leaning entertainer would siphon votes away from an underfunded and largely unknown Bell, thus eliminating the only real threat to Perry's reelection.
Not so fast. The Kinkster's rhetoric has taken a hard tack to the right in recent weeks, alienating many progressives who have been inclined to back him, and perhaps creating an opening with some disgruntled conservatives looking for a safe alternative to voting for the Guv. While numerous polls have shown a good deal of unhappiness with Perry among the Republican faithful, so far he's seemed safe from a mutiny due to a lack of palatable alternative for these voters.
Obviously Bell is not an option for these hardcore voters, and Strayhorn is now widely viewed by them as an opportunist and is not trusted. Kinky, however, with his blunt style, and very low chance of actually winning, could provide a safe protest vote for angry wingers this year. Friedman seems to sense this, and has started offering conservatives a bit of political red meat in recent days, on issues such as immigration, taxes and Katrina evacuees.
It may be working. The latest Wall Street Journal Battleground States poll (conducted by Zogby) shows some very interesting movement in the race. Rick Perry's reelection number has dropped to just 31%, putting him squarely in the danger zone. Bell has continued to move up, likely by solidifying his Democratic base, and is now running a strong second at 25%. Kinky has also surged, taking third at 22%, while Strayhorn continues to stink it up at just 11%.
With eight weeks remaining until Election Day, the Texas Governor's race has gotten very interesting indeed. If Kinky can begin to eat into Perry's base -- even just 4 or 5% of it, and Bell can get desperately needed funding for TV down the stretch, there's a ball game folks. Strayhorn, while fading as a candidate, remains very dangerous to her enemy Perry by virtue of her ability to savage him on television straight through Election Day. The situation is incredibly fluid right now and frankly fun to watch.
Kinky may well end up as spoiler, just with a different victim than previously thought.
Posted by houtopia at 11:04 AM
September 07, 2006
A Lousy Idea
The Houston City Hall insider gossip line has been burning up the last few days. Speculation abounds about who may run to replace Council Member Shelley Sekula-Gibbs if she wins the November special election to fill the remainder of Tom DeLay's term (until the end of the year) as District 22's Member of Congress.
While Sekula-Gibbs is mounting a write-in campaign to succeed DeLay in the 22nd District next year -- a campaign that is highly unlikely to be successful -- she is also simultaneously running to spend "Christmas in Congress", and be CD 22's Member for 8 weeks or so. Nick Lampson, the Democratic nominee and favorite to succeed DeLay next year, is not running in the special election. So, the odds are good that Sekula-Gibbs will realize her yuletide wish.
One consequence of her special election victory (if, as is reported, she decides to accept the Congressional seat for two months) is that she will be forced to give up her Houston City Council seat a year early. Hence the intense political jockeying and rumor-mongering of late around City Hall.
Early word is that the special election to replace Sekula-Gibbs would likely be called in May 2007, and the names of a number of potential contenders have surfaced, including current District F Member MJ Khan, former Judge Eric Andell, Melissa Noriega, Diana Davila-Martinez, and two of last year's at-large candidates -- Roy Morales and Houston Community College Trustee Jay Aiyer. The most interesting name so far, however, was thrown into the ring yesterday -- Nandita Berry, wife of current At-Large Council Member Michael Berry.
That's right folks, apparently the Berry family thinks it's just fine for two married people living in the same household to serve on Houston City Council at the same time. A bit presumptuous perhaps? While it may not be illegal, it's a lousy idea in our book.
Mrs. Berry may well be a fine person and a potentially great public servant, but if she wants to run for City Council she needs to wait until her husband's term is up at the end of next year. One person per nuclear family at a time serving on a major elective body is enough, thank you. If she wants to run, she should run in November to replace her husband, not in May, so they can office together through the end of the year.
It is difficult to imagine, that over the course of even an abbreviated campaign season, other candidates to replace Sekula-Gibbs won't make an issue of this nepotism. And the very small, highly informed electorate that is likely to turn out for a May special election with nothing else on the ballot, may well frown upon her candidacy under these circumstances. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
As we said, one family member on Council at a time is plenty. For many reasons, let's hope the Berry family does the right thing and drops the idea alltogether.
Posted by houtopia at 02:01 PM
September 06, 2006
Mad As Hell
Fewer than 9 weeks now remain until the November 7th midterm election. While 60 days can be a lifetime in politics, a national mood that has been present for months now seems to be intensifying -- angry.
As he does each week, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza parses the polls and draws the conclusion that American voters are mad as hell. While the numbers make clear that voters have only slightly higher regard for Democrats than Republicans, they also realize who is running things these days.
These latest polls only confirm what we have been saying for months -- that a message of change and accountability is the way to go for Democratic challengers in 2006.
But Cillizza's piece also makes another point clear -- based on the polls to date, one can expect that the GOP base will vote in November. Again, as we have said, any Democratic strategy that presumes otherwise is foolish.
The 60-day sprint to the finish is on!
Posted by houtopia at 05:12 PM