« A Lousy Idea | Main | Goodbye Ann Richards »
September 11, 2006
Kinky As Spoiler
For many months, the conventional wisdom has held that independent Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman would serve as spoiler to Democrat Chris Bell and virtually guarantee another term for current Governor Rick Perry. The idea has been that the seemingly left-leaning entertainer would siphon votes away from an underfunded and largely unknown Bell, thus eliminating the only real threat to Perry's reelection.
Not so fast. The Kinkster's rhetoric has taken a hard tack to the right in recent weeks, alienating many progressives who have been inclined to back him, and perhaps creating an opening with some disgruntled conservatives looking for a safe alternative to voting for the Guv. While numerous polls have shown a good deal of unhappiness with Perry among the Republican faithful, so far he's seemed safe from a mutiny due to a lack of palatable alternative for these voters.
Obviously Bell is not an option for these hardcore voters, and Strayhorn is now widely viewed by them as an opportunist and is not trusted. Kinky, however, with his blunt style, and very low chance of actually winning, could provide a safe protest vote for angry wingers this year. Friedman seems to sense this, and has started offering conservatives a bit of political red meat in recent days, on issues such as immigration, taxes and Katrina evacuees.
It may be working. The latest Wall Street Journal Battleground States poll (conducted by Zogby) shows some very interesting movement in the race. Rick Perry's reelection number has dropped to just 31%, putting him squarely in the danger zone. Bell has continued to move up, likely by solidifying his Democratic base, and is now running a strong second at 25%. Kinky has also surged, taking third at 22%, while Strayhorn continues to stink it up at just 11%.
With eight weeks remaining until Election Day, the Texas Governor's race has gotten very interesting indeed. If Kinky can begin to eat into Perry's base -- even just 4 or 5% of it, and Bell can get desperately needed funding for TV down the stretch, there's a ball game folks. Strayhorn, while fading as a candidate, remains very dangerous to her enemy Perry by virtue of her ability to savage him on television straight through Election Day. The situation is incredibly fluid right now and frankly fun to watch.
Kinky may well end up as spoiler, just with a different victim than previously thought.
Posted by houtopia at September 11, 2006 11:04 AM