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September 20, 2006
The Latest Guv's Poll
Survey USA is out with its latest snapshot of the Texas Governor's race, and the results are most interesting:
If the election for Governor of Texas were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Rick Perry? Democrat Chris Bell? Libertarian James Werner? Independent Richard "Kinky" Friedman? Independent Carole Keeton Strayhorn? Or some other candidate?
35% Perry (R) (35%)
23% Bell (D) (20%)
2% Werner (L)
23% Friedman (I) (21%)
15% Strayhorn (I) (19%)
2% Undecided
The numbers in parentheses are each candidate's rating in the June poll.
Perry's numbers are flat as a board, even after an onslaught of warm, fuzzy and false TV ads, but if they stay where they are he probably get reelected. Bell continues to creep up, despite basically no media spending in recent weeks, likely by continuing to solidify the Democratic base. Kinky has also crept up, as his rightward thrust of late may have picked off some conservatives, at least temporarily.
Strayhorn, as Texas Monthly's Paul Burka notes in his blog, looks dead. Despite her flight of soft positive TV ads, her numbers are headed south. As Burka correctly observes, she now has little choice but to go thermonuclear on the Guv.
The only chance to beat Perry at this point is if Grandma beats him to a pulp over the next six weeks, while Perry's opposition coalesces around Bell. For that to happen, Bell must be on TV -- statewide -- for the last month running positive ads, an expensive and unlikely proposition. Stranger things have happened.
Posted by houtopia at September 20, 2006 12:54 PM