« Stealing Focus | Main | The Rumor Mill Is Running Wild »
October 10, 2006
Four Weeks And Counting
Again, we must apologize for the woefully infrequent posting of late. Rest assured, after November 7th we will return full force.
Here we sit, just 28 days from the November 2006 midterm election. How does the land lay?
The GOP has had a rough ten days, to say the least. After beginning to make some progress with voters shifting the focus of the election back to national security and the war on terrorism (fabulously successful issues on which Republicans have pounded Democrats in recent cycles), Bob Woodward's new book landed and then Hurricane Foley roared ashore, washing those gains away.
Though dwarfed by Foley coverage in recent days, Woodward's new turncoat kiss and tell-all (Part III is not the love letter the first two were) struck the administration at the heart of its credibility on competently prosecuting the War in Iraq and larger struggle against terrorism. The access to insiders that only Woodward can get was quite damaging this time around, as former Bush 43 officials confirmed suspicions many Americans had long held -- that the White House is not effectively devising or implementing prudent foreign policy. In other words, these guys don't know what the hell they are doing.
Next came L'Affaire Foley, a crippling blow to the GOP on its other political sea leg - values and morality. A homosexual Republican Congressman who had headed the Congressional Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children preying on underage boys? A House GOP leadership team that looked the other way for months or even years? Ouch. As revolting and sad as Mr. Foley's actions are, politically the Democrats couldn't have pulled such a rabbit out of a hat if their lives depended on it. With the balance of power in the U.S. House (and possibly the Senate) so close to the tipping point, the GOP can ill-afford such a demoralizing event to its religious conservative base.
While increased tensions with North Korea over its (possible) nuclear test could impact the existing political dynamic, so far that doesn't seem to be the case. After all, why would the Bush administration choose to highlight a foreign policy problem it has largely ignored for six years? Also, given that North Korea may now be a nuclear power, not to mention its imposing neighbor to the north (China), there are no easy, decisive policy options to rally Americans around the flag.
28 days can be an eternity in politics, and Team Rove should never be underestimated for its ability to do what needs to be done to hang on. But the GOP is holding some pretty lousy political cards right now, and it won't be easy to win this hand. We shall see.
Keep your eye on those U.S. Navy ships steaming towards Iran.
Posted by houtopia at October 10, 2006 05:27 PM