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February 27, 2007
Local Pride
On this, opening day of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, the metropolitan area (specifically Katy) had the good fortune to be featured on Jon Stewart's Daily Show. The subject of said Daily Show piece was enough to make every Houstonian brim with pride. (Check here for posting of the video.) Yes, those Katy pig races are back, and now all of America knows the story.
Local readers will recall the flap out in Katy over a local Muslim group's plans to construct an Islamic community center and school on a piece of property surrounded by farmland. Needless to say, local neighbors are not enthused about the proposed building, offering complaints ranging from legitimate concerns about changes to the neighborhood to unabashed racism. Some members of the Muslim group clearly fanned the flames with some of their own comments.
Doesn't all of this cast the Houston area in a flattering light? Should we feel slighted that the Daily Show reporter had the audacity to refer to Katy as a "tiny town", rather than the suburban Houston community that it is? After such a glowing report, don't we want the whole world to know that's us?
Yikes.
Posted by houtopia at 10:27 PM
February 24, 2007
TXU Buyout?
In what would be huge news here in Texas, the New York Times is reporting that TXU Energy may be bought out by private equity firms, and that plans for 8 of 11 proposed new coal plants in the state would be scrapped.
Wow.
Posted by houtopia at 08:50 PM
Trouble On The Right
With a lot of attention paid this week to the Clinton-Obama David Geffen flap, it is easy to neglect similar turmoil churning on the GOP nomination side.
The three current Republican frontrunners -- John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Guiliani -- all have liabilities hindering their nomination, not least of which is each's lack of bona fides with the critically important social conservative wing of the party.
In short, the Christian right doesn't like any of the three frontrunners, and even has issues with some of the second-tier candidates. David Krikpatrick examines this problematic situation in Sunday's NY Times.
It's a good read, and highlights a dynamic to watch on the GOP side.
Posted by houtopia at 08:18 PM
February 21, 2007
The Ugliness Begins
The likely moving up of the 2008 presidential primaries to early February in states like California, Florida, New Jersey, and possibly Texas means the nominations in both major parties may well be over by this time next year. Hence the alarmingly early and intense campaigning to date for both the Democratic and Republican nominations. And when major campaigns with high stakes begin, negativity is not far behind.
Yesterday we wrote about GOP hopeful Mitt Romney's opening attacks on rival Arizona Senator John McCain on abortion. This early attack involves some risk, considering that Romney has his own history of changing his position on this divisive issue, but the Romney camp may have judged that since their candidate, McCain and Rudy Giuliani -- the three early GOP frontrunners -- all have potential vulnerability here, it may be beneficial to turn it into a wash by making that known.
Today, Senator McCain sparred with the Bush White House -- specifically Vice President Dick Cheney -- over recently departed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's place in history. Cheney predictably fought back, creating add tension to an already testy relationship between the administration and the President Bush's onetime opponent.
Fireworks have erupted on the Democratic side as well. Hollywood mogul and onetime Bill Clinton supporter David Geffen, who is supporting Barack Obama for president, took several potshots at his former friends and beneficiaries of his largesse, the Clintons, in a recent Maureen Dowd column in the New York Times.
Clinton's team responded rapidly, and in our judgment, heavy-handedly, demanding Obama repudiate Geffen and his comments. Obama has kept his cool, refusing to get in the middle of a fight between the Clintons and their former friend. The young, relatively inexperienced Obama has looked like the unflappable old pol in the situation so far, compared to the more seasoned Clinton team.
Such negativity so early in a presidential election is unusual and potentially risky. Most voters know little about the candidates and won't vote for quite sometime. These early skirmishes could leave a bad taste in their mouths. Patrick Healy and Jim Rutenberg proivde an excellent rundown in Thursday's Times.
Posted by houtopia at 11:04 PM
February 20, 2007
Casting Stones
As we have mentioned in recent days, the 2008 GOP presidential nomination contest is the first real race in many moons. The party of control and discipline has in recent years quickly coalesced around its nominee, and not looked kindly on continuing challenges -- hence many a Republican faithful's lingering hard feelings toward a certain Arizona senator, who had the audacity to impede George W. Bush's coronation in 2000. Things have changed.
There will be no preordained coronation of the 2008 Republican nominee; in fact, the field is wide open, just like on the Democratic side. Three candidates currently inhabit the top tier -- John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. McCain, he of the insurgent Straight Talk Express 2000, now qualifies as the establishment candidate. A senior senator, and the oldest nonincumbent presidential candidate in modern history, McCain has eschewed his maverick independent style in recent months, in favor of hardline conservative positions on everything from Iraq to reproductive rights.
The question is, do GOP primary voters trust McCain? Do they really believe he has abandoned that pesky tendency to violate Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment and speak out against his party from time to time, or has his recent very public tack rightward been simply a calculated political move to strengthen his support among the party's social conservative base?
Well, one of McCain's rivals, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, is betting on the latter, and as Politico's Jonathan Martin writes, has come out on the offensive against McCain on the hot button abortion issue.
Gary Marx, Romney's director of conservative outreach is playing hatchet man, taking McCain to task for "ducking" the abortion issue since the 2000 campaign. He has sent an email to 100 influential conservative leaders questioning McCain's commitment to ending abortion. An interesting strategy.
Romney has significant upside as a candidate, but suffers from being far less known than his two chief rivals -- McCain and Giuliani. This initial salvo, coupled with new TV ads that have begun running in early primary states, is likely part of a dual effort to raise his own profile while having a staffer start tearing down the competition. Again, interesting, but such a strategy is not without risks for Romney.
In particular, Romney's attacks are almost certain to generate a response from his opponent, and Mitt's own history on the abortion issue is arguably more controversial than McCain's. Romney is about to find out just how thin the glass is in his house; John McCain has some stones of his own to throw.
Posted by houtopia at 06:51 PM
February 17, 2007
Whe Needs College?
Two sessions ago, the Texas Legislature decided, in its infinite wisdom, to deregulate college tuition at Texas' public universities. The purpose was to decrease the state's share of involvement in covering costs for these public institutions, so it could save money. The result, of course, has been that those public college and universities have shifted those costs onto students in the form of higher tuition.
College tuition at state schools has risen an average of 37% since dereg took effect, and at places like UT and A&M considerably more than that. For most everyday Texas families, a college education for their kids is getting further and further out of reach. Unless a student is willing to incur an enormous student loan debt, forget it.
One program that helped keep college affordable is the Texas Tomorrow Fund -- a plan created a decade ago that has allowed Texas families to pre-pay years in advance for tuition at certain state colleges and universities. Parents could begin paying into the fund years before their kids entered college, locking in lower tuition rates, and allowing the money to earn interest over time.
Trouble is, the fund has been closed for new enrollment since that tuition deregulation went into effect in 2003. Now the newly elected Texas State Comproller -- Susan Combs -- has issued new report strongly recommending the fund remain permanently closed, citing a large and growing future shortfall. Hmm... future shortfall... where have we heard that in recent legislative sessions?
At some point Texans have got to ask themselves what kind of state we want going forward. Is a situation where 40% of our kids are not graduating from high school, and the cost of a college education is increasingly prohibitive for most families likely to produce a skilled, well-educated middle-class workforce? Or is Texas headed for huge wealth and income disparity, where a small upper class goes gangbusters while an unskilled, uneducated underclass makes up more and more of the state's population?
Based on the policies of state government in the last several years, the answer is obvious.
Posted by houtopia at 11:23 AM
February 09, 2007
Blowing Up Barack
What goes up must come down, right? Seasoned observers are waiting for a return to earthly confines for one Barack Obama, after the Illinois Senator's meteoric political rise over the last couple of years. As Obama prepares to officially announce his intention to seek the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination this weekend, the long knives are coming out -- within his own party and beyond.
Mike Allen, formerly of the Washington Post, has penned an excellent piece on the subject for the new must-read Web site -- The Politico. Allen, who spoke with strategists from both parties, outlines the strategy -- focusing on four areas -- likely to be employed to undo Obama. His inexperience, a thin policy record, liberal viewpoint, and potentially problematic personal disclosures are perceived weak spots whcih may be vulnerable to attack.
Obama has been a media darling, to be sure, but that's about to change. Gone are the fawning profiles and musings about the seemingly limitless possibilities for a "different kind of politician." Aided by rival Democratic campaigns, and by GOP operatives wary of facing an undefined opponent with tremendous upside in the general election, the press will begin its dutiful examinatiion of every Obama orifice -- public and private -- looking for those pesky details that could derail his campaign.
Obama, no dummy, seems to know it's coming. Knowing it's coming, however, doesn't mean he won't be damaged by it. The question is to what extent and whether he can survive. Open season on Barack Obama is about to begin. Will he be blown up, or live to actually compete in next year's primaries? We shall see.
Posted by houtopia at 04:22 PM
February 08, 2007
Mitt's Mountain
For the first time in recent memory, the 2008 Republican presidential field is wide open. For obvious reasons, Vice President Dick Cheney will not seek the nomination, leaving a large and growing bevy of candidates vying to be the standard bearer. The ensuing battle will prove most interesting, since the GOP just isn't used to this sort of thing. A free-for-all is a foreign concept to a party that's M.O. is order and public unity. The presidency of George W. Bush, however, has turned that structure on its head.
Of the host of Republican wannabes already in the mix, all have drawbacks -- some more serious than others. Most are relatively unknown and will have a difficult time raising substantial funds; problems immediately relegating them to second-tier candidates.
Among the top-tier aspirants, John McCain retains baggage with party faithful left over from his 2000 challenge of Bush -- the White House has not, incidentally, been helpful to the Straight Talk Express so far. Rudy Guliani's troubled marital history, suspect business dealings and liberal social positions make him a very high risk candidate in the GOP primary. Then there's Mitt Romney.
Romney, the son of a U.S. Senator who was also once briefly a presidential candidate, and the likeable former governor of Massachusetts (a Republican getting elected governor there is kind of a big deal) in many ways looks like the most attractive general election candidate the GOP could field. An attractive guy, with a moderate record and little baggage, Romney has considerable appeal.
Mitt, however, also has a problem -- he's a Mormon. For most folks outside of Utah, Mormonism is largely defined by the pairs of young men riding around on bicycles dressed in black suits (they would be missionaries) who try to convert their neighbors, or visions of a guy with ten wives (HBO's Big Love helps feed the imagination there.) In truth, Mormonism is a sect of Christianity with some decidedly divergent theology. Today's NY Times takes a look at Romney's faith and its possible effects on his campaign.
Romney's problem is that most Americans know little to nothing about the religion, and what they do know strikes them as bizarre, or even cult-like, depending on their own religious disposition. As the Times article points out, 37% of Americans surveyed last year said they were not likely to support a Mormon for president. That's what we call starting at a decided disadvantage.
Apparently Mitt has studied John F. Kennedy's tactics in 1960 (including a famous speech), when he successfully overcame concerns about his Catholicism to win the presidency. Two issues come to mind: First, Romney, while no Dan Quayle, is no Jack Kennedy either. Second, Mormonism is not Catholicism. Liturgically and theologically, Catholicism isn't that far off from its numerous Protestant offshoots; Mormonism is comparatively way out there.
Clearly, if Romney is to gain his party's nomination and win the presidency, he will have to climb this mountain. And a big one it is.
Posted by houtopia at 08:01 PM
February 05, 2007
Trying To Read The Guv
Since Texas Governor Rick Perry romped to reelection victory in November with a stunning 39% of the vote (can anyone say mandate?), it makes sense, we suppose, that he would take this electoral affirmation as license to assert his individualism in what figures to be his final term in Austin. (We suspect this term will mark his exit from electoral politics alltogether, despite his continuing fantasy of being on the 2008 GOP presidential ticket.)
Shortly after the campaign, during which he effectively exploited illegal immigration to his political advantage, Perry did an about face and declared that building a wall to keep immigrants out was not the answer, but that a guest worker program was needed. Perry's post-election 180 no doubt delighted the legions of conservative Texans who, in spite of their anger at the Governor over the business tax and other issues, held their noses and returned him to office one more time. Strange behavior from Mr. Perry indeed.
Even stranger was Governor Perry's decision a few days ago to require Texas girls to be vaccinated against HPV -- a sexually transmitted virus responsible for most cases of cervical cancer in women. While many may applaud Perry's decision as a progressive, common-sense move to promote public health, that same conservative base does not see it that way. They instead believe requiring the vaccine promotes promiscuity. Needless to say, they are not happy with the Guv.
Who is this Rick Perry, one might ask? No, he hasn't been reborn, as far as we know, in the opposite direction. Nor is his latest shocker the principled stand of a senior statesman. No, it's just more of the same kind of influence peddling we've come to expect from the GOP clan running the show in Austin these days. Turns out the Guv's former chief of staff, Mike Toomey, is a lobbyist for Merck -- the pharmaceutical company that manufactures the HPV vaccine in question. Shocking, isn't it?
Landslide Rick is off to a great start in his final term. Soon he may give his predecessor's current job approval numbers a run for their money.
Posted by houtopia at 09:13 PM
February 03, 2007
Two Americas? No Kidding
Followers of the 2004 presidential election will recall Democratic candidate and eventual vice-presidential nominee John Edwards' frequent speeches about "two Americas" -- one for the haves, and one for everyone else. Using the skills that made him a fabulously successful plaintiff's attorney in North Carolina, Edwards eloquently (if repetitively) lamented the growing divide in American society between a small, very rich upper class that is growing richer, and the rest of the country, which struggles to keep up with exploding expenses for health care, education, housing, and other basic necessities of life.
After the 2004 election, Edwards continued to champion this issue, assuming the directorship of the newly formed Center on Poverty at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. As an announced candidate for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, Edwards has kept his focus on the American economic divide.
Recently discovered information, however, about the new "compound" in which he and his family live, clearly (and perhaps inconveniently) shows to which of the two Americas the Edwards family belongs. 29,000 square feet of residential luxury, complete with basketball and squash courts, two stages, and even rumors of a helipad may serve to undercut Edwards' desire to be perceived as a man of the people.
This news, along with Edwards' attacks on rivals Clinton and Obama, and fresh New Hampshire poll numbers showing him slipping to a distant third there, caps a lousy week for Team Johnny Boy.
Posted by houtopia at 10:06 PM
February 01, 2007
An Early Eckels Exit?
Last night at 10:00, KHOU Channel 11's Doug Miller broke a potentially big story (sorry, no video link currently available) -- Harris County Judge Robert Eckels is seriously considering resigning his position for a more lucrative private sector job. Kristen Mack's Chronicle piece on the subject was out last night as well. An early exit from Commissioner's Court by Eckels, who is a popular, Republican countywide official, would likely set off some very interesting political maneuvering on both sides of the political aisle.
Eckels was just reelected (unopposed) in November 2006 to another four-year term. Should he decide to leave, our understanding of the election law is that Commissioner's Court would vote on a successor until the next general election -- November 2008, when candidates could file and run. No doubt an ample group of suitors would emerge to vie for this top countywide office.
First of all, who would the Court appoint as Eckels' interim successor? The Court is currently split with 2 Democrats (Sylvia Garcia and El Franco Lee) and 2 Republicans (Jerry Eversole and Steve Radack), with Eckels as the 5th vote. But it's not that simple. As many know, Eckels and Radack cannot stand one another, meaning the Court's votes don't always break along expected party lines. Eckels could vote on his interim replacement, but would he? Could he and Radack possibly agree on a fellow Republican to take the job -- either as a caretaker for two years, or as a possible permanent successor? Hard to say, but their acrimonious history hardly makes it seem likely.
Some names that have surfaced on the GOP side as possible replacements are Jerry Eversole, Ned Holmes, or Paul Bettencourt. Eversole would seem more of a placeholder. If he left his Commissioner's seat to take the job, there would likely be a wide-open Republican primary for County Judge in 2008, whether Eversole wanted to keep the position or not.
Holmes, a longtime party donor, hugely successful businessman and former Port Authority Chairman, if appointed, would be a daunting opponent for 2008 challengers. First of all, he could self-fund, he would be a smooth, telegenic candidate, and he has a ton of favors to cash in -- the guy's raised money for or given to every candidate and elected official in town. Nobody wants to take him on in a GOP primary.
Then there's Bettencourt. The darling of the anti-tax conservative crowd (ironic when you think of to whom you write your enormous property tax check each year), the current Tax Assessor-Collector has one rather large obstacle -- Radack. That's right folks, they too are mortal enemies. So, the interim appointment is probably out for Bettencourt, though he may well look at 2008. There's another problem for Bettencourt, however, if he runs next year -- the same problem he has if he decides to seek the 22nd Congressional seat -- he must immediately resign his current job to run. Presumably the guy has to make a living, and no income for a year plus could be difficult.
Other Republican names in the mix include current City Council Member Michael Berry, and former Member Mark Ellis, though his political stock has fallen somewhat after finishing last in the four-way Senate District 7 primary last spring.
What about the Democrats? After all, the average downballot countywide Dem candidate got about 48.5% of the vote in 2006, with terrible base voter turnout and absolutely no coordinated effort. All signs point to Harris County tipping back to the Democrats in the near future, so they would be crazy not to mount a serious challenge for this seat in 2008, particularly considering the dramatically higher base Democratic voter turnout in a presidential year.
Obviously, the interim appointment is out for any Democrat -- Eckels and Radack don't hate each other that much. Would either of the sitting Democratic Commissioners consider running in 2008? Hard to know, but Garcia would seem more likely to run than Lee.
The two names most often mentioned are former City Council Member Gordon Quan and former Party Chair and real estate investor David Mincberg. Both would be strong candidates. Names like John Whitmire, Rodney Ellis, Sylvester Turner and Gene Green have also been floated as possible candidates, but not with any regularity.
As we often say, stay tuned on this one -- it should be most interesting to watch.
Posted by houtopia at 08:39 AM