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February 01, 2007
An Early Eckels Exit?
Last night at 10:00, KHOU Channel 11's Doug Miller broke a potentially big story (sorry, no video link currently available) -- Harris County Judge Robert Eckels is seriously considering resigning his position for a more lucrative private sector job. Kristen Mack's Chronicle piece on the subject was out last night as well. An early exit from Commissioner's Court by Eckels, who is a popular, Republican countywide official, would likely set off some very interesting political maneuvering on both sides of the political aisle.
Eckels was just reelected (unopposed) in November 2006 to another four-year term. Should he decide to leave, our understanding of the election law is that Commissioner's Court would vote on a successor until the next general election -- November 2008, when candidates could file and run. No doubt an ample group of suitors would emerge to vie for this top countywide office.
First of all, who would the Court appoint as Eckels' interim successor? The Court is currently split with 2 Democrats (Sylvia Garcia and El Franco Lee) and 2 Republicans (Jerry Eversole and Steve Radack), with Eckels as the 5th vote. But it's not that simple. As many know, Eckels and Radack cannot stand one another, meaning the Court's votes don't always break along expected party lines. Eckels could vote on his interim replacement, but would he? Could he and Radack possibly agree on a fellow Republican to take the job -- either as a caretaker for two years, or as a possible permanent successor? Hard to say, but their acrimonious history hardly makes it seem likely.
Some names that have surfaced on the GOP side as possible replacements are Jerry Eversole, Ned Holmes, or Paul Bettencourt. Eversole would seem more of a placeholder. If he left his Commissioner's seat to take the job, there would likely be a wide-open Republican primary for County Judge in 2008, whether Eversole wanted to keep the position or not.
Holmes, a longtime party donor, hugely successful businessman and former Port Authority Chairman, if appointed, would be a daunting opponent for 2008 challengers. First of all, he could self-fund, he would be a smooth, telegenic candidate, and he has a ton of favors to cash in -- the guy's raised money for or given to every candidate and elected official in town. Nobody wants to take him on in a GOP primary.
Then there's Bettencourt. The darling of the anti-tax conservative crowd (ironic when you think of to whom you write your enormous property tax check each year), the current Tax Assessor-Collector has one rather large obstacle -- Radack. That's right folks, they too are mortal enemies. So, the interim appointment is probably out for Bettencourt, though he may well look at 2008. There's another problem for Bettencourt, however, if he runs next year -- the same problem he has if he decides to seek the 22nd Congressional seat -- he must immediately resign his current job to run. Presumably the guy has to make a living, and no income for a year plus could be difficult.
Other Republican names in the mix include current City Council Member Michael Berry, and former Member Mark Ellis, though his political stock has fallen somewhat after finishing last in the four-way Senate District 7 primary last spring.
What about the Democrats? After all, the average downballot countywide Dem candidate got about 48.5% of the vote in 2006, with terrible base voter turnout and absolutely no coordinated effort. All signs point to Harris County tipping back to the Democrats in the near future, so they would be crazy not to mount a serious challenge for this seat in 2008, particularly considering the dramatically higher base Democratic voter turnout in a presidential year.
Obviously, the interim appointment is out for any Democrat -- Eckels and Radack don't hate each other that much. Would either of the sitting Democratic Commissioners consider running in 2008? Hard to know, but Garcia would seem more likely to run than Lee.
The two names most often mentioned are former City Council Member Gordon Quan and former Party Chair and real estate investor David Mincberg. Both would be strong candidates. Names like John Whitmire, Rodney Ellis, Sylvester Turner and Gene Green have also been floated as possible candidates, but not with any regularity.
As we often say, stay tuned on this one -- it should be most interesting to watch.
Posted by houtopia at February 1, 2007 08:39 AM