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February 08, 2007
Mitt's Mountain
For the first time in recent memory, the 2008 Republican presidential field is wide open. For obvious reasons, Vice President Dick Cheney will not seek the nomination, leaving a large and growing bevy of candidates vying to be the standard bearer. The ensuing battle will prove most interesting, since the GOP just isn't used to this sort of thing. A free-for-all is a foreign concept to a party that's M.O. is order and public unity. The presidency of George W. Bush, however, has turned that structure on its head.
Of the host of Republican wannabes already in the mix, all have drawbacks -- some more serious than others. Most are relatively unknown and will have a difficult time raising substantial funds; problems immediately relegating them to second-tier candidates.
Among the top-tier aspirants, John McCain retains baggage with party faithful left over from his 2000 challenge of Bush -- the White House has not, incidentally, been helpful to the Straight Talk Express so far. Rudy Guliani's troubled marital history, suspect business dealings and liberal social positions make him a very high risk candidate in the GOP primary. Then there's Mitt Romney.
Romney, the son of a U.S. Senator who was also once briefly a presidential candidate, and the likeable former governor of Massachusetts (a Republican getting elected governor there is kind of a big deal) in many ways looks like the most attractive general election candidate the GOP could field. An attractive guy, with a moderate record and little baggage, Romney has considerable appeal.
Mitt, however, also has a problem -- he's a Mormon. For most folks outside of Utah, Mormonism is largely defined by the pairs of young men riding around on bicycles dressed in black suits (they would be missionaries) who try to convert their neighbors, or visions of a guy with ten wives (HBO's Big Love helps feed the imagination there.) In truth, Mormonism is a sect of Christianity with some decidedly divergent theology. Today's NY Times takes a look at Romney's faith and its possible effects on his campaign.
Romney's problem is that most Americans know little to nothing about the religion, and what they do know strikes them as bizarre, or even cult-like, depending on their own religious disposition. As the Times article points out, 37% of Americans surveyed last year said they were not likely to support a Mormon for president. That's what we call starting at a decided disadvantage.
Apparently Mitt has studied John F. Kennedy's tactics in 1960 (including a famous speech), when he successfully overcame concerns about his Catholicism to win the presidency. Two issues come to mind: First, Romney, while no Dan Quayle, is no Jack Kennedy either. Second, Mormonism is not Catholicism. Liturgically and theologically, Catholicism isn't that far off from its numerous Protestant offshoots; Mormonism is comparatively way out there.
Clearly, if Romney is to gain his party's nomination and win the presidency, he will have to climb this mountain. And a big one it is.
Posted by houtopia at February 8, 2007 08:01 PM