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March 30, 2007
Mike Howard
We were very sorry to learn today of the death of Mike Howard, Chief of Staff to Houston City Council Member Toni Lawrence.
Mike, an Air Force veteran and retired Houston Police officer, was a dedicated public servant and just a good guy. He will be missed.
Matt Stiles has a write-up on his Chronicle blog.
Our sincere condolences to his family, friends and colleagues.
Posted by houtopia at 03:31 PM
March 29, 2007
Sensing Trouble - Part II
In our last posting, we highlighted local Republican concern over the party's Harris County prospects in 2008. Countywide Democratic candidates have been closing the overall vote gap with the GOP over the last few cycles, almost in spite of themselves, and next year's presidential election may threaten the one-party Republican dominance of Harris County that has existed since 1994.
As a new piece on Politico.com points out, apparently GOP fears are not limited to Harris County. The article's title -- "Republicans Fear 2008 Meltdown" -- says it all. A lackluster presidential field, an administration saddled with an unpopular war and beset by scandal, and historical trends all work against the party's 2008 hopes.
Speaking of scandal, shortly before the 2004 presidential election, Washington Monthly ran a compilation of essays answering the question "What If Bush Wins?" It is interesting to reread these offerings, from a variety of perspectives, with some 2 1/2 years of hindsight. One entry stands out.
In September 2004, Washington Monthly writer (and blogger) Kevin Drum characterized a second George W. Bush term with one word - scandal. Prescient commentary, indeed.
Posted by houtopia at 12:33 AM
March 27, 2007
Sensing Trouble
2006 turned out to be a pretty decent year for Democrats in Harris County. For the second consecutive cycle, gains (modest ones, to be sure) were made. This result was particularly remarkable considering below average turnout among base Democratic voters countywide. The average downballot Democratic candidate in Harris County received over 48% of the vote, without a truly competitive governor's race, and without well-funded Democratic countywide candidates. In short, the vote improved in spite of all the disgouraging factors surrounding the election.
Local Democrats took notice of this development, and have been planning accordingly. Well, apparently so have some local Republicans. (Link courtesy of Blog Houston.)
Profs. Jon Taylor and Michelle Carnahan of St. Thomas have sounded the alarm to local Republicans about 2008 countywide races. Bright academics both, they too see how the numbers are moving. At the end of the above-referenced posting they implore local Republicans to quit their internal bickering and get serious about holding on in Harris County next year.
More background color on what is shaping up to be a most interesting political 2008 in Harris County.
Posted by houtopia at 09:23 PM
March 23, 2007
Brand Erosion
For the last 20 years, the Pew Research Center has conducted an annual survey gauging American public attitudes toward the two major political parties, and on a host of issues. By gathering thousands of interviews, representative of the voting electorate as a whole, and within individual states, research director Andrew Kohut and his team have amassed some fascinating and valuable information showing overall ideological and political trends in America.
Well, their new survey is out, and it does not disappoint.
The most striking finding is the dramatic shift in American's party identification in just five years. Readers will recall 2002, when a post-9/11 George W. Bush capitalized on a yearning for national unity to prepare the country for invading Iraq, and in the process routed the Democrats in that midterm election. GOP strategic Svengali Karl Rove and others were feeling their oats and began to speak of a permanent Republican majority. The GOP brand was ascendant, as for the first time in many moons Republican party identification matched the Democratic number (43% with leaners) in the Pew survey.
My how things have changed. Five years later, President Bush is a lame duck who's administration is being dragged down by a long, costly war and a series of scandals. Pew's new poll has 50% of respondents self-identifying with Democrats, with the Republican share plunging to 35% -- ouch. The modern GOP brand that began with Ronald Reagan, surged to Congressional power in 1994 with the Contract With America, and peaked on the eve of the Iraq War, has lost its luster to say the least.
Beyond simple party ID, the Pew survey shows the American public is moving away from the social conservatism that has defined the Republican Party in recent years. On issues of social justice, equal rights and tolerance, and economic populism, the country is retreating from the religious right's confrontational agenda.
The problem for next year's Republican presidential nominee, and the party's more mainstream supporters, is that the GOP is now largely controlled by the hard right, particuarly at the grassroots level. Party activists will continue pushing for candidates, elected officials and policies which are increasingly at odds with the country's mainstream. Sound familiar? That's what many think happened to the Democratic Party during the post-Vietnam 1970s, and eventually drove them from power.
The survey notes that while Democrats are benefitting politically from Republican problems, it is happening by default. Public attitudes about the Democratic Party are stable but haven't improved, it's just that the GOP has cratered.
The data are well worth a gander, and suggest an absolutely fascinating upcoming presidential contest.
Posted by houtopia at 04:50 PM
March 19, 2007
A Gore Encore?
As the 2008 presidential campaign churns along with candidates racing toward the quarterly fundraising reporting deadline at the end of March, there has been much speculation about potential candidates who have not yet joined the race.
Much of this speculation has been on the Republican side, where the three current frontrunners -- John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and MItt Romney -- all seem to leave GOP party faithful longing for an alternative. Names like Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, and Fred Thompson have been bandied about in recent weeks as possible party saviors.
For any of these potential aspirants to enter the race would be problematic, however, since none is particularly well known (we'd guess even Gingrich would register relatively low name ID these days), and introducing oneself to a now-condensed primary electorate in some huge states (Feb. 5th) is a very costly proposition. Gingrich, perhaps, but the prospects for the others seem dim at best.
On the Democratic side, however, things are different. First of all, the primary electorate so far seems pretty satisfied with the top tier of presidential aspirants -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. Hillary is the establishment candidate -- battle-tested and tough, and a hugely polarizing figure in American politics today. Barack is the fresh face -- dynamic and different, and untested so far. Then there's Edwards -- the other guy, for now.
There is a fear among Democrats, however, that none of the top tier can win. America isn't ready for a woman president and hates the Clintons; America isn't ready for a black president; Edwards was a weak sister on the 2004 ticket, and won't be any different this time around; and so the arguments go.
Off stage (but not too far in the wings) is Al Gore. He's the guy many Democrats think already won in 2000. He railed against the Iraq War from the beginning -- in stark contrast to the junior Senator from New York. He championed the environment long before it was cool to do so. In short, Gore, for all his past political faults (and there are many) is where the core of the Democratic Party is today. And he finally seems to be the breathing human being people couldn't find in his last run.
With that in mind, speculation around Gore's possible entry into the 2008 race has run rampant in recent weeks. Readers will recall the rumors that he would announce his candidacy while picking up an Oscar at the Academy Awards several weeks ago. And many are watching his waistline these days, to see if the portly former Vice President is getting back in fighting shape.
Politico's John Harris has penned an excellent new piece on the subject -- a quick and insightful read.
While conventional wisdom says a Gore 2008 run is still unlikely, his late entry seems far more plausible than others, mostly because everyone in America already knows him. As Harris points out, a hotly contested early series of Democratic primaries, yielding split results, could set him up for a successful late run.
A 2008 Gore candidacy, while improbable, is nonetheless interesting to contemplate, and clearly already has a lot of folks buzzing. Stay tuned.
Posted by houtopia at 10:58 PM
March 14, 2007
Reality Check
Is Texas Governor Rick Perry living on Planet Earth? It's hard to tell these days, based on what's going on in Austin. After limping across the electoral finish line with 39% of the vote last November, Perry magnanimously declared he would be a "100% governor" in his new term. A 100% train-wreck, perhaps.
Since the election, and especially since the legislative session began, the Guv has managed to piss off just about everybody. He has drawn bipartisan ire over the Trans Texas Corridor, the Texas Youth Commission, the TXU fiasco, and skyrocketing utility rates. Perry has been a bicameral offender this session as well -- witness the smackdown he got from the House yesterday on the HPV vaccine, and today's 29-0 thumping from the Senate on the unfolding TYC disaster. We bet Rick is glad he's not around Austin this week (he's in Qatar.)
But even while out of town, Perry's presence can be felt around the Capitol. The Governor recently sat for an interview with Evan Smith of Texas Monthly, with the result so stunning the magazine simply couldn't wait five weeks to run it, and has posted it early online.
In talking to Smith, Perry comes across as so divorced from reality, we wonder if he's been spending the session in Crawford, rather than in Austin. The Guv ends the interview by touting his possible reelection plans in 2010. Right... Rick Perry, a legend in his own mind, and one we're stuck with for the next 4 years.
Posted by houtopia at 05:07 PM
March 12, 2007
The Natives Are Restless
It has been a rough turn of events, in recent months, for loyal Republicans. Their once-popular president, George W. Bush, has been bogged down by myriad scandals and a bad, and steadily deteriorating situation in Iraq, and is sounding more and more like a lame duck these days. They lost both houses of Congress in the November 2006 midterms, and the party's presidential prospects look uncertain to say the least.
Tuesday's NY Times is out with some fresh polling data to quantify that GOP malaise.
In short, Republican voters remain steadfastly loyal, if unenthusiastic, to their president but are dispirited about the party's near term prospects for success. One thing is clear: most GOP voters have yet to find a suitable standard-bearer for next year's presidential election among the current crop of contenders. 6 in 10 Republicans surveyed said they want more choices for their presidential nominee, while Democrats are far more satisfied with their candidate pool.
Bad news for current GOP "frontrunners" McCain, Romney and Giuliani. Even Rudy, who, largely unscrutinized, has benefitted in the polls from a McCain decline, isn't exciting the Republican base. Somehow, we think the more folks learn about America's Mayor, the less they will like him, but what do we know?
Such lackluster polling numbers must make unannounced candidates like Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich lean even further toward getting in the race. Hey, the field's clearly wide open.
As we have written, the 2008 GOP nomination process is most unusual in modern Republican Party politics. Nothing is decided, no one has been annointed, and the natives are restless.
Posted by houtopia at 10:57 PM
March 08, 2007
Disgusting
It has been almost nine years since the sadistic, brutal murder of James Byrd, an African American man dragged to his death behind a truck by three white supremacists in Jasper, TX. The crime sparked national outrage, and once again turned the nation's disapproving eye on our state.
Early Wednesday morning, in the east Texas town of Sulphur Springs, a white man apparently dragged a young African American man, Christopher Wright, 50 feet with his pickup truck for having the audacity to date a white woman. (Hat tip to Pink Dome for bringing this story to broader attention.)
Mr. Wright, while in critical condition with multiple broken bones, bruised lungs, and a fractured spine, survived the attack, though his long-term prognosis is unknown. His attacker, Justin Judson Weaver, is in custody after turning himself into local police.
This is Texas in 2007, ladies and gentlemen. And we wonder why the rest of the country mocks us.
Posted by houtopia at 11:19 AM
March 06, 2007
More Trouble For Perry
Texas Governor Rick Perry's new term has had a rather bumpy beginning, to say the least. Since winning reelection with a commanding 39% of the vote, Landslide Rick has taken a cue from his predecessor, George W. Bush, and begun spending his enormous political capital.
Readers will recall that Perry did an immediate immigration-180 after the election, ditching his anti-immigrant TV ads and supporting a guest worker program. Next came proposals to sell the state lottery to establish funds for education and health care, and his much discussed plan to require Texas girls to be vaccinated against the sexually transmitted HPV virus. Nothing like rewarding the right wing base that returned you to office, no?
Last week the Guv's political troubles deepened, as a sexual abuse scandal at the Texas Youth Commission exploded -- and this story, as they say, appears to have legs.
Amid all the recent excitement, another large political problem seems to be brewing for Perry -- the Trans Texas Corridor. In a perhaps little-noticed blog entry in today's Austin American-Statesman, Jason Embry noted that Members in both the House and Senate have filed legislation to put a moratorium on the TTC.
Defying common sense and political reality, Perry has pursued the Trans Texas Corridor as his great legacy for the state. Rural property owners have a slightly different view, and have been raising hell about the issue for months. While much of the media have seemed preoccupied with other business at the Lege, apparently the Members are feeling the heat.
Add the TTC to the growing list of headaches for Governor Good Hair. As if he needed another one.
Posted by houtopia at 10:13 PM
March 04, 2007
Inner Loop Growing Pains
Those Houstonians who live inside the 610 Loop (or thereabouts) are all too familiar with residential construction these days. Older single-family dwellings are often making way for new higher density townhomes and mid- and high-rise condominium developments.
This urban infilling and regentrification is presenting both pluses and minuses in center city communities. Increased property values and amenities are certainly bi-products of the development boom, but so are higher property taxes, increased traffic and heavier burdens on infrastructure.
In today's Chronicle, Mike Snyder examines the double-edged sword that is inner Houston new development.
The rub, of course, is how the City of Houston addresses current and future development through public policy. Houston is famously a no-zoning city, and no current plans appear to be in the works to change that. But the City is considering ordinances to guide development, an undertaking that no doubt will be challenging (if not impossible) to reach a broad consensus.
How do we balance the desire for increased development, much of it higher density, with preserving quality of life in our neighborhoods? It's a question worthy of serious debate and deliberation.
Posted by houtopia at 07:03 PM