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March 23, 2007
Brand Erosion
For the last 20 years, the Pew Research Center has conducted an annual survey gauging American public attitudes toward the two major political parties, and on a host of issues. By gathering thousands of interviews, representative of the voting electorate as a whole, and within individual states, research director Andrew Kohut and his team have amassed some fascinating and valuable information showing overall ideological and political trends in America.
Well, their new survey is out, and it does not disappoint.
The most striking finding is the dramatic shift in American's party identification in just five years. Readers will recall 2002, when a post-9/11 George W. Bush capitalized on a yearning for national unity to prepare the country for invading Iraq, and in the process routed the Democrats in that midterm election. GOP strategic Svengali Karl Rove and others were feeling their oats and began to speak of a permanent Republican majority. The GOP brand was ascendant, as for the first time in many moons Republican party identification matched the Democratic number (43% with leaners) in the Pew survey.
My how things have changed. Five years later, President Bush is a lame duck who's administration is being dragged down by a long, costly war and a series of scandals. Pew's new poll has 50% of respondents self-identifying with Democrats, with the Republican share plunging to 35% -- ouch. The modern GOP brand that began with Ronald Reagan, surged to Congressional power in 1994 with the Contract With America, and peaked on the eve of the Iraq War, has lost its luster to say the least.
Beyond simple party ID, the Pew survey shows the American public is moving away from the social conservatism that has defined the Republican Party in recent years. On issues of social justice, equal rights and tolerance, and economic populism, the country is retreating from the religious right's confrontational agenda.
The problem for next year's Republican presidential nominee, and the party's more mainstream supporters, is that the GOP is now largely controlled by the hard right, particuarly at the grassroots level. Party activists will continue pushing for candidates, elected officials and policies which are increasingly at odds with the country's mainstream. Sound familiar? That's what many think happened to the Democratic Party during the post-Vietnam 1970s, and eventually drove them from power.
The survey notes that while Democrats are benefitting politically from Republican problems, it is happening by default. Public attitudes about the Democratic Party are stable but haven't improved, it's just that the GOP has cratered.
The data are well worth a gander, and suggest an absolutely fascinating upcoming presidential contest.
Posted by houtopia at March 23, 2007 04:50 PM