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June 06, 2007
All Things Presidential
Still months away from any votes actually being cast, the presidential race -- in both parties -- churns along.
On the Democratic side, the race seems to have stabilized somewhat, though Barack Obama continues to creep up on Hillary Clinton in the polls. In fact, the latest USA Today Gallup poll has them essentially tied. The first-rate analysts over at pollster.com -- a site which aggregates polling data -- take a look at the poll in a larger context, and conclude that while it may be a stretch to characterize the race as tied at this point, aggregated polling shows the race narrowing.
Of course, as most folks know, national polls for the primary contests are far less important than those in individual states with early primaries. Still, these trends are not good news for team Hillary. She's the one candidate in the field with 100% name ID -- a largely defined entity in voter's minds -- and her numbers are going in the wrong direction. Basically two-thirds of Democrats are saying they want somebody else, and as the race progesses the non-Hillary vote is likely to start coalescing around a single alternative. So much for her shock & awe strategy of blowing people out of the race early. She may end up being the nominee, but she's going to have fight very hard to get it.
Over on the Republican side, confusion abounds. The field keeps expanding -- Fred Thompson now says he's in, and Newt Gingrich can't be far behind. The growing field likely means the pie of votes will only be further sliced up, complicating any one candidate's chances of breaking through.
The crowded GOP field went at it last night in Manchester, NH. But with so many candidates, how can anyone really stand out? Wonder what the wagering odds are these days on the Republican nomination going to the convention?
Oh, and in pondering the scrambled GOP field, don't miss Matt Taibbi's delicious Rolling Stone piece on "America's Mayor" and the current Republican frontrunner, our pal Rudy Giuliani.
Posted by houtopia at June 6, 2007 07:59 AM