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August 29, 2007
Bacarisse Bites
The race for control of Harris County in 2008 figures to be one of the most interesting to watch for Texas political observers. Demographic change and erosion of the Republican brand have moved Democrats into nearly a dead heat with the GOP in a county dominated by Republicans for over a decade.
In 2006, with no governor's race to speak of and no high-profile countywide contests (read: no money being spent and terrible turnout from base Democratic voters), downballot Harris County Democratic candidates averaged roughly 48.5% of the vote. Jim Sharp, a Democrat running for the Court of Appeals, actually carried the county, only to fall short in the surrounding counties of the court's jurisdiction.
This surprisingly strong Harris County Democratic performance, given the less than optimal dynamics of the election in Texas, piqued the interest of many a local politico on both sides -- operative, donor, activist or observer -- and created heightened expectations (or tensions, depending on party) for the upcoming 2008 cycle.
Obviously, the races for President, U.S. Senate, Congress and the State Legislature will dominate next November's election. Here in Houston, however, the countywide races may constitute the pivotal battleground. A handful of county administrative offices and a few dozen judicial races are up for grabs in 2008.
Republicans currently hold every countywide office here in Harris, and (outwardly at least) they are confident of retaining control. Local Democrats, buoyed by a strong 2006 performance, are bullish about their 2008 prospects. Most knowledgeable observers think the contest will be very close, and could go either way. (Note: since most voters go to the polls to cast their ballot in the high-profile, top-of-the-ticket races, lesser-known downballot candidates tend to rise or fall depending on the overall partisan tide of the electorate. By this logic, either the downballot GOP or Democratic candidates could sweep, or something in between.)
The top prize among the countywide seats in 2008 will be County Judge, a seat that, ironically, should not even be voted on next year. Readers will recall that Robert Eckels was reelected to the position without opposition last fall, to a term that lasts through 2010. Soon after, Judge Eckels, the top countywide GOP electoral performer, and much to the chagrin of his local Republican brethren, decided to resign the seat and take a private sector job. County Commissioner's Court selected Ed Emmett, a former state legislator and Republican consultant, to take Eckels' place. Emmett's appointment was met with considerable grousing among local GOP activists.
By law, an election to fill the remainder of Eckels' term will be held next November. Emmett will run to hold the seat, despite lukewarm support from the Republican base. David Mincberg, a businessman and former Chair of the Harris County Democratic Party, just announced his candidacy on the Democratic side, and his background and fundraising ability, coupled with the party's increased viability of late make him a serious contender.
This Emmett-Mincberg matchup would figure to be a barn burner right off the bat. Not so fast.
Today, Charles Bacarisse, the current Harris County District Clerk, announced his entry into the Republican primary for County Judge. Bacarisse is an ally of two incredibly verbose and self-righteous "leaders" of the local GOP - Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt and State Senator (and talk radio host) Dan Patrick.
Bettencourt, who wanted Eckels job for himself and flirted with a run for Congress against Nick Lampson, and Patrick, who is enamored with the sound of his own voice, have led the criticism of Emmett's appointment and will undoubtedly back Bacarisse's candidacy to defeat him.
The GOP primary will pit the insider Emmett, who will likely be the institutional and business community's candidate, which will help him raise large sums of campaign cash, against the true believer activist-backed Bacarrise. It should be a battle royale. Some local Republican observers are not excited by the prospective fight.
Meanwhile, Mincberg and local Democrats will watch the upcomng battle with great interest, all the while preparing for the November 2008 general election. And a fascinating election it will be.
UPDATE: As noted in the comments, one reader took issue with the tone of a few lines crossing the line into personal attack. The post was written at the end of a long, difficult day, and after a night's sleep, we agree. In the interest of civility, we have made a couple of slight changes, and have noted the criticism for future reference.
Posted by houtopia at August 29, 2007 09:23 PM
Comments
Republicans currently hold every countywide office here in Harris, and (outwardly at least) they are confident of retaining control.
Jared Woodfill may send out confident emails, but sensible Republicans are worried about Harris County. You've linked to the Professors, so you know this is true.
Bettencourt, a serial whiner who wanted Eckels job for himself and flirted with a run for Congress against Nick Lampson, and Patrick, who has the attention span of a gnat
Your partisan credentials are well established.
I'd suggest to you that if you care about appealing to readers who may not share your sharp partisan and ideological proclivities, you might want to tone down just a little bit.
Your blog, your call, of course. But you're a smart guy who can write for and appeal to a broader audience, if you choose.
Posted by: kevin whited at August 29, 2007 11:08 PM
As a GOP grassroots activist who is supporting Judge Emmett I resent your characterization. Emmett is doing great when it comes to grassroots support.
Posted by: CR at August 30, 2007 08:30 AM
Fair enough, Kevin. Looking at this after sleeping on it, a couple of lines may be on the uncharacteristically harsh side. Noted for future reference.
Posted by: houtopia at August 30, 2007 08:43 AM