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August 08, 2007
Parsing The Polls - Hillary Vs. Obama
Months before anyone actually votes in the 2008 presidential primaries, it is risky to read too much into national polls of the nomination race for either major party. While we, the politically wretched, follow every zig and zag of the various campaigns, as well as any corresponding trends in the plethora of polls out there, most Americans, even the much smaller number who do vote in primary elections, just aren't paying much attention yet, so don't give too much credence to who they say they're supporting in August 2007.
If one is to watch polling data this early and wants the most accurate lay of the land possible, it is wiser to look at aggregated trends across a number of polls, as opposed to following movement in individual surveys. For example, it can be downright confusing to see something like (these are hypothetical examples only) the Post has Hillary up while the Times shows Obama gaining, or, Rasmussen gives Giuliani the edge but Gallup has him tied with Thompson; you get the picture.
One of the best sites out there for aggregating and analyzing polling data is Pollster.com. Rather than fixate on every up and down in every survey, the founders of pollster dot com -- Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin -- tend to take a comprehensive birdseye view, which is far more likely to yield an accurate picture of what's really happening.
Yesterday, on the heels of "dueling" memos from each campaign which, shockingly, favored its own candidate, Franklin took an overview look at the of Hillary vs. Obama polling data. The results are quite interesting.
Franklin observes that each campaign's memo cherry-picks, to a certain extent, recent polling data to show Clinton or Obama in the best possible position. Again, hardly surprising. Franklin's analysis, however, shows a modest but clear expansion of support for Hillary Clinton among Democrats, while Obama's numbers have remained flat. Franklin's numbers -- Hillary - 38.8% -- Obama - 22.6%, or a 16.2% lead for Clinton.
The reasons for, or significance of this movement is a question certainly open to debate, and we would caution against giving it undue weight at this early date, but these appear to be the numbers at the moment. If you must follow the horserace (and we plead guilty to doing so), at least get good information. Rely on Pollster.com.
Posted by houtopia at August 8, 2007 06:21 PM