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August 17, 2007
Rolling The Dice
Few issues in American politics today have the ability to push emotional buttons and elicit visceral reactions from the public like the immigration issue. Immigration does not cut neatly across partisan or ideological lines like so many issues in today's polarized political environment. And while most Americans favor reasonable reform to the system that strengthens border security, documents the undocumented, and creates a much stronger legal immigration system, a very angry and vocal minority does not, and that minority has been very effective to date in halting reform.
President Bush, for his part, championed reform, but the collapse of an immigration deal in Congress earlier this summer bore witness to his badly diminished political clout in the waning years of his administration. Bush, as well as his soon to be ex-advisor Karl Rove and former national Republican party chairman Ken Mehlman, all have preached the importance of expanding GOP reach into minority communities, particularly the Latino community, as critical to the party's longterm national viability.
The Republican base, however, is sufficiently hostile to compromise on the immigration issue that it has simply tuned out this outreach message. These folks want the border closed, a crackdown on employment of undocumented workers, and deportation of those here illegally. Just this week, two of the top GOP presidential contenders (Rudy & Romney), in a sign of the issue's importance in the Republican primary, escalated rhetoric against one another about who's tougher on immigration.
While it may go against President Bush's political judgment, he seems to be bowing to the base's demands. By ramping up enforcement against hiring of undocumented workers, Bush is clearly feeding the base some red meat. But will there be a political cost to doing so?
No doubt, many of his traditional supporters in the business community will be very unhappy and will make those feelings known. And what of the effect on the millions of Latino citizens who vote, not to mention the millions more who are eligible but have so far not felt compelled to participate? Will this anti-immigration fervor produce an electoral backlash in 2008? What about in a state like Texas, who's Latino population is approaching 40%, but where Republicans like Bush and Governor Rick Perry have done well with traditionally Democratic Latino voters? Will John Cornyn suffer? Will Rick Noriega benefit?
The answers to these questions are unknowable at this point, but one thing is clear: Republicans are making a big roll of the dice on immigration. It may pay off, it may not, but it will be fascinating to watch.
Posted by houtopia at August 17, 2007 05:18 PM
Comments
I don't believe for a minute that most people want these parasites in our country. More left wing rhetoric
Posted by: Fed Up at August 18, 2007 08:29 AM
Fed Up -
Who are parasites, the people who come here to get a job, or the employers who hire them because they don't want to pay Americans a decent wage?
Immigration poses real challenges to society, to be sure, but I don't fault people trying to come here to make a better life for themselves and their families. If you were in their position, you'd do the same, and guess what, more than likely previous generations of your family did exactly that.
The overwhelming majority of these folks are here because someone is paying them to work. When there aren't jobs here, they don't come.
I recognize there are real issues to be dealt with surrounding immigration, and welcome a substantive debate. But lay off the mean-spirited attacks.
Posted by: houtopia at August 18, 2007 08:57 AM