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August 15, 2007
Taking Stock Of Barack
The marathon races for the respective major party presidential nominations are in the early middle miles. It's hot, slow going, and the finish line is nowhere in sight. Nobody actually votes for months, so debates, straw polls, Web videos and earned media tit for tat are the weapons of choice at the moment, as campaigns continue to jockey and raise as much money as possible for prime time early in 2008.
The Republican race continues to be scrambled eggs. Mitt Romney spent a fortune to win, with an unimpressive 32% of the vote, the Iowa Straw Poll last weekend. That the event had dismal turnout -- just 14,000, down from the 20,000 expected and 24,000 in 1999 -- and was skipped by major GOP candidates Giuliani and McCain, not to mention potential candidates Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich, should speak volumes about its importance to the overall race. As right wing commentator Fred Barnes put it yesterday, "I think Ames meant zilch."
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains a sizeable lead in national polls, though the race is a good bit tighter in early primary states. She and Barack Obama have separated themselves, for the time being at least, from the rest of the field (Clinton's numbers average in the high 30s - a several point uptick in the last few months, while Obama's have stayed in the low 20s) and the campaigns have had a few early skirmishes in recent weeks, both in debates and via the news media.
Squabbling over foreign policy tactics, the hypothetical use of nuclear weapons, and lobbyist contributions probably hasn't changed the race much in our judgment. Rather, it's our guess that Clinton's polished performance in the debates accounts for the slight widening of her lead in recent weeks, but who knows for sure?
Clearly, the race remains very much in play, and while Clinton has the advantage at the moment, the fact that 60+% of Democrats haven't committed to a totally known and defined candidate suggests there is an opening for an alternative. But is Barack Obama that alternative? (We think he's probably the only viable alternative, by virtue of his appeal and fundraising prowess, save a very unlikely Al Gore entrance into the race. In other words, it's very likely going to be her or him.)
Whether Obama can take it to the next level is the million dollar question in the 2008 race, as far we're concerned, and the jury is very much out on that one. Can he convince the primary electorate he's ready to be president? Can he become a more disciplined candidate without losing his unique appeal? Can he successfully run an unconventional campaign of change against a battle-tested, status quo candidate? Not at all clear at this point. Two articles on the subject are very much worth your time.
The first is Ryan Lizza's cover story -- Above The Fray -- in the latest issue of GQ magazine. It is a lengthy, fascinating glimpse into Obama-world on the campaign trail. Lizza sharply captures Obama's strengths and shortcomings (any preconception that Obama is an intellectual "lightweight" should be put to rest by this piece), and really nails the challenge his campaign faces over the next several months. It is a must-read for campaign junkies.
Second is a Dan Balz piece in today's Washington Post. In it, Obama floats what could become a central theme in his primary campaign -- that while Hillary Clinton may well be able to win the presidency, she may not be able to govern. This notion speaks to a unease many Democrats feel about Clinton (and which may explain her less than dominant position in the race) -- she's so polarizing that the acrimony and gridlock people are so tired of will only continue if she's elected.
Obama is careful not to blame Clinton herself for her polarizing effect, rather he asserts he can bring the country back together. Such a message may have particular appeal in an early primary state like New Hampshire, where Independents often vote in one of the presidential primaries. And clearly, Obama needs an early state victory -- certainly by South Carolina -- if he is to go the distance with Hillary. Will this and/or other strategies be successful? Way too soon to say, but it bears watching.
Posted by houtopia at August 15, 2007 06:32 PM
Comments
Obama won't go the distance against Clinton.
Posted by: Tony at August 16, 2007 11:42 AM
Tony -
I'm not saying you're wrong, but care to support that claim with any analysis. I think ther jury's very much still out on that.
Posted by: houtopia at August 16, 2007 06:02 PM