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September 12, 2007
Rudy Returns To Reality
It was just a matter of time. Rudy Giuliani's gravity-defying run at the top of the lackluster GOP presidential field seems to be coming to an end. Three new polls -- in the Washington Post, the LA Times, and the NY Times -- confirm substantial erosion in Giuliani's support among Republicans, nationally as well as in key early primary states. (Hat tip to Greg Sargent over at TPM on this one.)
No doubt, Fred Thompson's recent official entry into the race, and Mitt Romney's concentrated efforts in Iowa and New Hampshire have taken a bite out of Rudy's numbers. But we can't help thinking that, as we suspected all along, the more folks found out about "America's Mayor" the less they would like. Whether it's his unsavory personal behavior, testy disposition, his serial distortion and exaggeration of his record as mayor of New York (coupled with intensifying scrutiny and criticism of that record by the press and his many enemies), or increased knowledge among GOP primary voters of his positions on social issues, positions which are out of step (to put it mildly) with today's Republican primary electorate, the bloom is, shall we say, off Rudy's rose a bit.
Romney's numbers are perhaps the most interesting to watch. As the LA Times poll notes, Mitt is strongest in the two states that matter most right now -- Iowa and New Hampshire -- where he leads the field. Spending millions on advertising and field efforts there certainly has moved the needle, but his campaign (correctly in our judgment) decided early on to establish an early primary beachhead, calculating that wins or very strong finishes in those two states would give his candidacy needed momentum going forward. So far, that's looking like a wise bet, though it's early yet. Romney is in a strong position for the moment, but let's see what Thompson does, and whether or not McCain, who has stopped the bleeding, can nurse his candidacy back to heath. The GOP nomination remains totally up for grabs.
By contrast, in our view, if there is to be any race at all on the Democratic side, somebody has to beat Hillary Clinton in either Iowa or New Hampshire. She is comfortably ahead in the national polls at the moment, though early primary state numbers are much tighter. If she is able to win Iowa, what should be a tough state for her, and New Hampshire, she will run the table. A win by another candidate in one of those states will solidify that person as the viable alternative to Clinton, and create what is effectively a two-candidate race from there on. Obama seems best positioned to be that alternative because he has a large, dedicated volunteer base, and more money than anyone else (including Hillary.) You can't totally exclude Edwards or Richardson at this point, but they are real longshots. This likely reality explains Team Clinton's strategy of trying to make her nomination a foregone conclusion. They want this over early, for obvious reasons.
But back to the GOP, Giuliani is on the rocks. His early support is turning out to have been as thin as it was widespread. Can Rudy regain his mojo? We wouldn't bet on it. At this point, our money would be on Romney.
Posted by houtopia at September 12, 2007 07:06 PM