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October 29, 2007
A Low Turnout Affair
Today began the second day of early voting here in Harris County, as voters have an opportunity to decide on a number of state, county and school district ballot issues, including bonds and constitutional amendments. To boot, folks in the City of Houston have a (nominal) Mayor's race, and a number of City Council seats to vote on. So far, there seems to be little interest in the election.
Kuff was kind enough this morning to post the in-person early vote numbers through Sunday. As of yesterday, 15,792 folks had voted in person in Harris County. Compare that total with 2005, when 24,132 in-person votes had been cast. So far, 2007 is running at 65% of the 2005 pace. Two years ago, about 332,000 ballots were cast in Harris County, 192,000 of those in the City of Houston. If the current trend holds, we'll see more like 216K votes countywide, and 125K in the City in 2007. That would put turnout in the neighborhood of 10% -- pretty low.
While Mayor White is running a few commercials, he faces no serious opposition. A high-profile mayor's race is the driver of turnout in odd-year elections in Houston, and the absence of a meaningful mayoral campaign has dampended interest in voting, to be sure. The only real mystery is whether or not White can best his 91% share of the vote from 2005. (We predict he'll fall a little short, but not by much.)
And while all 14 seats of City Council are also on the ballot, only a handful of real races are going on there. Open seats in District D (to replace term-limited Ada Edwards), District E (to replace Addie Wiseman), and District I (to follow Carol Alvarado) have generated contested, mulit-candidate races, at least two of which (in D & E) are likely to require a runoff. While a third candidate is in the District I race, basically it's a two-man race between Alvarado's former Chief of Staff James Rodriguez and John Marron, who is backed by Labor and Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia.
There is one real contest for an At-Large seat -- #5 to replace the outgoing Michael Berry. There are several candidates here, and a runoff is expected, though who will make that runoff is the subject of considerable speculation among local election watchers. Most expect Jolanda Jones, an attorney and former Survivor contestant, to claim one of the runoff spots. The second spot seems very much up for grabs, with Jack Christie, Tom Nixon and Zaf Tahir all in the running to make the finals.
Then there are the bonds -- state, local and school -- which dominate the ballot. A handful, such as the statewide cancer bond and the local HISD issue, have gotten a fair amount of attention, much of it not positive in HISD's case. The HISD race looks to be close and could go either way, as does the family law center county issue, but most of the rest should pass.
Early voting continues through Friday of this week -- locations and hours available here -- and Election Day is next Tuesday, November 6th. Do your civic duty and cast a ballot.
Posted by houtopia at 10:21 PM | Comments (0)
October 28, 2007
The Evangelical Crackup
The evangelical Christian vote has been quite a subject of interest and study in American politics over the last several years. George W. Bush's well-documented success with evangelicals in 2004 -- about 80% of their vote and unprecedented turnout, thanks to strategist Karl Rove -- secured his reelection, and increased the political stroke of a number of Christian conservative leaders. Indeed, this monolithic evangelical vote was often discussed by Rove and religious leaders as the key component to lasting Republican dominance of the American political landscape. How quickly things change.
In a superb piece today for the NY Times Magazine, David Kirkpatrick, who covered the Christian conservative movement during the 2004 campaign, returned to places like Wichita, KS to take the movement's temperature three years after Bush's reelection.
Needless to say, many evangelicals have cooled to Bush, and the Republican Party as a whole. Disillusionment over the war in Iraq and bitterness at feeling used by the GOP for electoral gain only to have their concerns ignored by the politicans in charge have certainly had a chilling effect.
More noteworthy, however, were the clear ideological fissures Kirkpatrick found within the movement itself. Fatigue with the divisive political focus against abortion, gays and secularism, and a desire to reorient that focus, particularly among younger members, toward a more positive, proactive agenda to improve their communities -- such as improving race relations, helping the poor and protecting the environment -- were evident.
The rise of more progressive theological leaders like Rick Warren and Bill Hybels, as old guard firebrand conservatives such as Jerry Falwell pass from the scene, highlights a decided change underway within the evangelical movement, one that threatens the status quo conservatives grip on power. Kirkpatrick notes the recent upset victory of a moderate over the hardliners handpicked candidate to head the Southern Baptist Convention as an example.
A growing diversity of ideological and political opinion within the evangelical movement, and a lack of enthusiasm for the GOP presidential candidates as well as receptiveness to the Democrats, do not augur well for Republican electoral fortunes in 2008. Other than the prospective bogeyman of Hillary Clinton, just what does give the GOP grounds for optimism about next year, anyway?
Kirkpatrick's article is a must-read.
Posted by houtopia at 08:23 PM | Comments (3)
October 25, 2007
Gauging Houston's Green-ness
There was an interesting piece by Maggie Galehouse in today's Chronicle, featuring some noted Houstonians' rating Houston's "green-ness" on a scale of 1 to 10.
Not surprisingly, Mayor Bill White offered the highest rating -- an 8 out of 10 -- of those interviewed. Hey, he's Mayor; part of his job is being a cheerleader for the city. Others, such as local chef Monica Pope, gave a much lower score.
A wide range of grades are given to Houston's status as a green city in the article, though most titled toward the low end. That such a piece was even run in Houton says a lot about how the discussion of the environment, vis a vis quality of life in Houston, has evolved.
Posted by houtopia at 11:05 PM | Comments (2)
October 23, 2007
Watts Withdraws
Obviously the big political news in Texas today was Mikal Watts' decision to withdraw from the campaign for the Democratic nomination to challenge John Cornyn next year.
Watts' explained his sudden exit by citing the toll running for statewide office would take on his family. His departure from the race clears the field (for the moment) for one Rick Noriega, who released a short and classy statement of his own.
Whatever Watts' reasons for exiting the race, his presence made Noriega a stronger candidate. By putting up and raising substantial money early on, Watts forced Noriega to quickly ramp up his own fundraising operation, and begin answering the most significant question observers had about his nascent campaign -- can he raise the money necessary to compete with Cornyn?
That question will not be answered for many months, but one thing is clear. If Noriega can raise adequate funds -- likely at least $10-12 million -- to run a full-fledged statewide campaign, he will be a formidable challenger to Cornyn. Noriega's compelling biography and impressive public service record match up nicely with Texas' junior senator's rubberstamp voting record for failed Bush administration policies. It's shaping up to be a helluva race.
Posted by houtopia at 11:55 PM | Comments (0)
October 22, 2007
California Burning
Southern California is an inferno. Fires are raging in 7 counties, and in San Diego County, 250,000 residents have been told to flee. Over 600 homes burned to the ground today, and a dozen fires rage over 520 square miles. Truly frightening.
A lack of rain, warmer temperatures and increased development have created a literal tinder box, which, abetted by the Santa Ana winds is wreaking total havoc in SoCal.
It is painful to watch such destruction, and it provokes tough questions, about climate change, declining water resources, and continued rapid development in spite of these major problems.
Last night, 60 Minutes featured a troubling piece on the increased frequency and intensity of "mega" fires in the American West. Veteran firefighters noted the lengthening fire season from even a decade ago, as Spring comes earlier, the snow melts sooner, and summers are hotter.
Yesterday's NY Times Magazine looked at declining water resources in the West, a very alarming trend in areas of exploding population such as Las Vegas. The region is literally drying up, while people continue to flood in.
We hope policymakers are watching. More intense hurricanes and fires, drought conditions throughout much of the country, a dwindling snow pack in the western mountains, falling lake and river levels; the climate warms and our ecological balance is clearly out of whack. Will we act?
Posted by houtopia at 10:22 PM | Comments (0)
October 21, 2007
A Good Bill On Climate Change
Climate change continues to grow in the American public's consciousness as a pressing issue of great concern. Rising temperatures, which have fueled stronger tropical storms and hurricanes, as well as more frequent and intense forest fires, have gotten folks' attention. Throw in rising gas prices and utility costs hitting people in the pocketbook, and our current energy situation leaves a lot to be desired. A new CNN poll tracks the change in American attitudes on the subject.
Of course, much coverage -- by the news media, supporters and detractors -- has occurred surrounding Al Gore's recent winning of the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to raise awareness of the climate change issue.
A very important, but far less covered development on the subject occurred late last week. Two U.S. Senators -- Joe Lieberman (I-Connecticut) and John Warner (R-Virginia) -- introduced a new bill, America's Climate Security Act, to set new federal standards to reduce U.S. carbon emissions.
The legislation would begin mandating emission reductions immediately, and arrive at levels 65% below 1990 by the year 2050. The bill would utilize a market-based "cap and trade" system to allow some flexibility for industry, but would require the benchmarks be met. The bill is similar to one previously introduced by Lieberman and John McCain (R-Arizona), but with some modifications.
Reaction from the left and right ends of the political specturm has been negative -- for many on the left, legislation does too little, and is too burdensome to business for some on the right. In our view, that's probably why this bill actually has a chance of passing, and should be supported. Will it go far enough in addressing the climate change issue? Probably not. Will it cause some heartburn for industry? Probably. But this bill represents real, concrete action from the federal government. We must begin moving on this issue now. Drastic, immediate change is simply not economically feasible, and only voluntary cooperation won't get it done.
Lieberman, formerly a Democratic Senator, has been persona non grata with many progressives for his muscular support of the Bush Administration's general foreign policy approach, and the Iraq War in particular. We have a number of differences with Mr. Lieberman's policy positions in recent years, but on issues like the environment he remains progressive.
For his part, John Warner has drawn the ire of many conservatives for his blunt criticism of the Iraq debacle and other Team Bush failures. But this long-serving statesman and military veteran calls them as he sees them, and he's doing so with this climate change bill. One can't help but think that as Warner prepares to retire and exit the Senate after the 2008 election, he is concerned about doing something concrete to leave this planet a better place for future generations.
The Lieberman-Warner climate change bill is a sensible first step to move the needle in the right direction. We hope it passes, and that President Bush will sign it.
Posted by houtopia at 07:49 PM | Comments (0)
October 18, 2007
METRO Goes Bold
Most observers of the long and controversial debate over expansion of light rail in Houston expected the METRO Board to vote today in favor of constructing the east-west University Line as the next phase in rail expansion. In this vote, the Board did not shock. After exhaustive study and public comment, the Board voted to approve the University Line.
Much more surprisingly, the Board also opted to approve light rail construction, rather than bus rapid transit (BRT), on the other four planned expansion lines. Though voters approved the five rail lines in a 2003 referendum, METRO had hinted it would initially go with BRT, which would have laid the infrastructure for rail, but used futuristic buses until ridership numbers got high enough to justify federal funding for trains.
METRO decided, however, that current projected ridership numbers were sufficient to justify going straight to rail on all five lines, whcih would have trains running on them by 2012. This decision was a bold one by the METRO Board, and not anticipated.
Houston's population is growing by about 8% per year -- a huge rate. Millions more people are projected to come here in the next few decades. As traffic worsens and gas prices go higher and higher, mass transit alternatives are simply a must for this area, in terms of maintaining worker productivity and a decent quality of life.
On a day when President Bush's rejection of children's health insurance was narrowly upheld in the U.S. House, it was nice to see some good news on the public policy front. Kudos to METRO, as well as our friends at CTC for their hard work and advocacy on this critically important issue.
Posted by houtopia at 10:48 PM | Comments (0)
October 17, 2007
He's Quacking!
Remember that Shakespearean line "Methinks thou dost protest too much" (a variation on the actual line)? Well, President Bush was apparently playing his best Hamlet today during a 47-minute news conference.
Lashing out at the Democratic Congress, Bush told the press he is still "relevant" -- a sure sign he knows his influence is waning. Ah yes, gone are those salad days just after the 2004 election, when Iraq was going swimmingly, Social Security privatization was on the table, and the President, fresh off his landslide two-point victory, declared he had political capital and he intended to spend it.
33 months later, that wealth of political capital is gone, the credit card is maxed out, and the bill collectors are calling. Bush's polling numbers are in the toilet, where they are likely to stay, so who can blame him for casting blame elsewhere? After all, based on the last six and a half years, could we expect anything different from the administration?
Interesting that the Post article compares Bush's actions to Bill Clinton's in 1995 when the Republicans took over Congress. There are a few small differences between the two situations. First off, 1995 was the tail end of Bill Clinton's first term as president -- the prospect of his reelection for another four years made him plenty relevant, as opposed to Bush, who will exit office in 15 months.
Next, as of October 2007, George W. Bush's job approval rating is a whopping 24%; guess that SCHIP veto's really working out for you, huh? By contrast, Bill Clinton's October 1995 job approval rating was 48%, not fantastic, but twice that of the current president.
In short, much as Team Bush might like to think it has a Clintonesque comeback in its future, the 1995 comparison is one of apples and oranges. The Decider is quacking like the lame duck he is, whether he knows it or not.
Posted by houtopia at 10:56 PM | Comments (0)
October 16, 2007
Oh How The Climate Has Changed
Not so long ago, the Republican establishment scoffed at the notion of climate change as a legitimate policy issue. To them, folks who raised environmental issues were nothing but anti-American tree huggers, and were simply not taken seriously. What a difference a few years makes.
The Democratic presidential field has predictably devoted plenty of bandwidth to to climate change - after all, it is a very important issue for many Democratic primary voters. Al Gore's Nobel Prize announcement last week was simply the latest confirmation for many progressives that their concerns about environmental degradation have finally attained mainstream legitimacy. Indeed, national polling shows that a large majority of Americans favor taking much more serious steps to combat climate change.
Perhaps overwhleming public sentiment explains the jarring about-face on the environment by the 2008 GOP presidential field. Wednesday's NY Times notes the dramatic shift on the issue by the Republican hopefuls.
The GOP field is divided on the climate change issue, not that there is a real problem mind you, but about how to address it. John McCain, despite, or perhaps because of his low standing in the polls these days, is out in front of the field -- calling for higher mileage standards and emission caps. Additonally, social conservative candidates Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback are leading the charge from a religious stewardship of the earth point of view.
Predictably, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney say there is a problem, but favor solutions such as greater use of "clean" coal rather than meaningful change. But if there rhetoric isn't sufficiently change-oriented to suit you, just wait a bit. Both Romney and Rudy's flexible relationship with the truth will no doubt result in further lip service on the issue at the politically opportune time.
Despite our cynicism about the political players involved, however, we glad this issue finally seems to be penetrating public consciousness. Here's hoping it leads to real solutions.
Posted by houtopia at 11:09 PM | Comments (0)
October 15, 2007
Tallying The Take
Well, today was the deadline for the presidential candidates to disclose their fundraising numbers over the last quarter, and the results are interesting.
Not surprisingly, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama far outpaced the rest of the field in both parties, with Clinton having $35 million cash on hand for the primary, vs. $32 million for Obama. While still neck and neck for the money-raising title, Clinton did overtake Obama last quarter, a fact that will no doubt add to the momentum she's been gaining in the polls and press. Both candidates spent about what they raised for the quarter, just over $20 million each.
Rudy Giuliani raised just $11.6 million to lead the Republican field, way behind the top two Democrats. (We are truly living in the Bizarro campaign world when Democrats are outraising Republicans nearly 2 to 1.) Rudy also spent more than he raised in the quarter -- $13 million. He's burning through that cash awfully fast, isn't he?
The worst burn rate of the fundraising quarter vis a vis contributions, however, belonged to GOP candidate Mitt Romney, who spent $21 million while raising $9.8 million (though he did lend himself another $8.5M.) Guess he had to keep spending to build name ID in those early primary states, especially when Warren Jeffs was soaking up the media bandwith allocated to Mormons, with his public trial and eventual rape conviction. Think Mitt watches Big Love?
As previously noted, Grandpa Fred Thompson did not wow anyone, raising $12.8 million since entering the race and showing just $7.1 million on hand at the end of September. This campaiging stuff's hard work, ain't it Fred? Bet those 5-minute Law & Order cameos are seeming pretty sweet about now.
Posted by houtopia at 09:55 PM | Comments (0)
October 11, 2007
Ann's At It Again
She just can't help herself, can she?
Ann Coulter, the right wing commentator who has made a living (and we'd guess quite a handsome one) saying outrageous things about those who do not share her political views, qualifies as a bona fide lightning rod these days. Whether in her books or on the talk show circuit, Coulter rarely fails to deliver an incendiary comment sure to offend many. Her recent appearance on Donny Deutsch's MSNBC show The Big Idea did not disappoint.
While extolling the virtues of a Christian America and why it would be ideal, Coulter remarked that "we just want Jews to be perfected." Whoops. According to Deutsch in the Times story, even the normally unrepentant Ann seemed to be "frightened that maybe she had crossed a line..." Ya think?
Apparently, Coulter's comments came in response to Deutsch asking her to describe the America of her dreams. We would find it difficult to effectively articulate our utopian vision of the country, particularly in response to a question in a short interview format. One small piece of our perfect America, however, quickly comes to mind: Ann Coulter wouldn't be on TV.
Posted by houtopia at 10:29 PM | Comments (0)
October 09, 2007
The Profound Junior Senator
Today's Chronicle has a brief rundown on U.S. Senator John Cornyn's remarks at yesterday's Greater Houston Partnership luncheon. We weren't there, but Dale Lezon's report makes clear that the junior senator is already in full campaign form - saying nothing of substance on policy and obfuscating his own record at every opportunity.
Consider this choice selection from Lezon's report:
Cornyn said he would work to make sure children of low-income families, in particular, are eligible for public health insurance programs.
If by working to make sure children of low-income families have health insurance he means voting against the Children's Health Insurance Program - twice - then we take his point, we guess.
Or how about this one:
"We need a honest debate about health care reform," the Texas Republican said at a luncheon sponsored by the Greater Houston Partnership. "We need to be all about ways to fix our broken health care system."
Wow, profound stuff, no? It's good to see Cornyn's really out there on the cutting edge talking about concrete ways to reform our "broken health care system."
And we especially enjoyed this gem from the good senator on border security:
He also said the federal government should consider several ways to improve security along the Mexican border, including fences. Technology can be used to better watch the border, he said, adding that more border patrol agents are needed.
Now that's a neat trick folks. Recall that Cornyn scoffed at the idea of a border fence just last year, but voted for it in the Senate this summer. Now he has masterfully combined both positions into a single sentence! Color us impressed by the senator's ability to effortlessly talk out of both sides of his mouth. Two words -- amateur hour.
We know Texas is still a Republican state, and that Cornyn will be favored to win reelection next year, but can this weakling really not be beaten? We anxiously await a certain Houston state representative's shot at the title in 2008.
Posted by houtopia at 10:09 PM | Comments (0)
October 08, 2007
Fred's Kitchen Cabinet
Fred Thompson's entry into the presidential race has thus far been a predictable dud. Lackluster fundraising, being reduced to begging for applause at campaign events, and an almost Bush-like demonstrated cluelessness on issues have not secured Fred's status as the GOP's 2008 savior. In fact, his polling numbers are headed in reverse.
In the latest confidence-inspiring move, Thompson announced the addition of former Virginia Senator George "Macaca" Allen, and Liz Cheney as co-chairs of his campaign. So, the man responsible for losing the Senate for Republicans and Darth Vader's daughter are supposed to breathe life into this flagging campaign?
Grandpa Fred's fall comedy tour continues.
Posted by houtopia at 10:54 PM | Comments (0)
October 07, 2007
Utility Deregulation - A Bill Of Goods
It's now been nearly a year since electricity deregulation in Texas fully went into effect. The results have been less than rosy so far for consumers. Remember the promises that deregulation would lead to lower utility bills through competition? Ask yourself, has your utility bill declined?
In fact, bills for Texans living in deregulated markets (some places like Austin generate their own power) have skyrocketed. So much for competition.
Today's Chronicle has a good piece on the subject. Again, whomever has benefitted from this deregulated system to date, it certainly hasn't been the average Texas consumer. Wonder if this will become an issue in next year's elections? It sure should.
Posted by houtopia at 10:09 PM | Comments (0)
October 03, 2007
Expected And Unexpected
As expected, President George W. Bush vetoed the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) legislation today, which would have added $35 billion to the program and insured another 4 million American children. While expected, the veto was inexcusable, and of questionable political judgment.
Many Republicans support the program, which is overwhelmingly popular with the American public, and Bush's veto will force a number of GOP House members in competitive districts to cast another difficult vote on the issue later this month.
The Congress will reconsider the bill, and while there is a good chance of overriding the veto in the Senate, it is less likely that will happen in the House, where hard-line Republicans will try to prevent it. Still, Democrats in Congress will delay the override vote until October 18th, in hopes of building momentum for the program sufficient to peel off enough Republicans to overturn Bush's veto. (Incidentally, Texans may want to contact Senator John Cornyn, who has voted against SCHIP twice, and urge him to reconsider on the upcoming vote. Senator Hutchison supports the program.)
It's nice to see President Bush is living up to his "compassionate conservative" billing. Here's hoping the Congress sticks it to him on this one.
On a far less important, but politically interesting note, another Republican U.S. Senator is retiring. The popular, but increasingly controversial Pete Domenici of New Mexico, ihas decided to hang 'em up. He is 75 years old, in declining health, and has been at the center of controversy surrounding the firing of a U.S. Attorney in his state.
Domenici's retirement offers Democrats another golden pickup Senate opportunity for 2008. New Mexico is a swing state with a large Hispanic population. Declining national Republican fortunes, coupled with anger from Hispanics on the immigration issue, will give Democrats a better than even chance to pick up a seat here and expand their majority in the Senate. The magic number of 60 seats, while still a long shot, is starting to look possible.
Posted by houtopia at 10:50 PM | Comments (3)
October 02, 2007
More Evidence Of Brand Erosion
We have written on a number of occasions in recent months about the decline in the Republican brand, both nationally and here in Texas. For example, the Pew national survey, which in 2002 showed party self-identification evenly split between Democrats and Republicans at 43% each, had become a 15-point advantage for Democrats -- 50-35% -- earlier this year. Similarly, a sizeable GOP party ID advantage here in Texas, has been reduced to a tie, according to several recent polls.
While some would like to think these changes are based on new-found love for the Democratic party, a more realistic analysis suggests they have much more to do with public disillusionment with the Republican Party. Failed leadership and the hijacking of the GOP by extremists have alienated many once loyal Republicans and seriously threaten the party's future prospects.
In today's Wall Street Journal, Jackie Calmes offers the latest angle -- the GOP's loss of core business voters.
What was once a core tenet of the Republican Party, fiscal discipline, has been abandoned by today's GOP. Instead a social issue agenda, pushed by religious conservatives has taken center stage, and has driven a lot of Republicans to the exits.
It is an interesting piece, and yet another sign of political trouble on the horizon for the Republican Party.
Posted by houtopia at 08:13 PM | Comments (1)
October 01, 2007
Posting A Good Number
Good news out of the Rick Noriega for Senate camp today. His exploratory campaign will report raising $570,000 in the two months or so since getting started -- not bad.
It's not Mikal Watts money, but then Noriega doesn't have huge personal wealth to invest in the campaign, nor, frankly does he need it. The Noriega campaign needs enough funding in the primary to get its basic message out, which should suffice. This first fundraising report should quiet some of the naysayers who have maintained Noriega is not viable because he cannot raise money.
We are pleased for Team Noriega, and we are not surprised.
Posted by houtopia at 10:49 PM | Comments (2)