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October 28, 2007
The Evangelical Crackup
The evangelical Christian vote has been quite a subject of interest and study in American politics over the last several years. George W. Bush's well-documented success with evangelicals in 2004 -- about 80% of their vote and unprecedented turnout, thanks to strategist Karl Rove -- secured his reelection, and increased the political stroke of a number of Christian conservative leaders. Indeed, this monolithic evangelical vote was often discussed by Rove and religious leaders as the key component to lasting Republican dominance of the American political landscape. How quickly things change.
In a superb piece today for the NY Times Magazine, David Kirkpatrick, who covered the Christian conservative movement during the 2004 campaign, returned to places like Wichita, KS to take the movement's temperature three years after Bush's reelection.
Needless to say, many evangelicals have cooled to Bush, and the Republican Party as a whole. Disillusionment over the war in Iraq and bitterness at feeling used by the GOP for electoral gain only to have their concerns ignored by the politicans in charge have certainly had a chilling effect.
More noteworthy, however, were the clear ideological fissures Kirkpatrick found within the movement itself. Fatigue with the divisive political focus against abortion, gays and secularism, and a desire to reorient that focus, particularly among younger members, toward a more positive, proactive agenda to improve their communities -- such as improving race relations, helping the poor and protecting the environment -- were evident.
The rise of more progressive theological leaders like Rick Warren and Bill Hybels, as old guard firebrand conservatives such as Jerry Falwell pass from the scene, highlights a decided change underway within the evangelical movement, one that threatens the status quo conservatives grip on power. Kirkpatrick notes the recent upset victory of a moderate over the hardliners handpicked candidate to head the Southern Baptist Convention as an example.
A growing diversity of ideological and political opinion within the evangelical movement, and a lack of enthusiasm for the GOP presidential candidates as well as receptiveness to the Democrats, do not augur well for Republican electoral fortunes in 2008. Other than the prospective bogeyman of Hillary Clinton, just what does give the GOP grounds for optimism about next year, anyway?
Kirkpatrick's article is a must-read.
Posted by houtopia at October 28, 2007 08:23 PM
Comments
"what does give the GOP grounds for optimism about next year, anyway?" Nothing. I've long thought that the "GOP" is done. Demographics are completely against it thanks in large part to the open borders program, the birth dirth, and the success of the Anti-American Liberal Educators in their indoctrination campaign. Bush may very well be the last Republican president. I honestly don't see the GOP surviving much further into this century. The question is what will replace it and if Britain is an example, the answer is nothing, Britain having become for all practical purposes a one party Nation, much as for example, Houston and New Orleans are one party cities. On a national level, if say, Hillary is elected, the formula from the European Socialist states is relatively simple to follow, i.e., extend the reach of Government programs to include the middle class, i.e. so-called free healthcare, retirement income, etc. and you create an enlarged plantation of willing supporters. Thus done, the "Party" that divied up the goodies buys a permanent electorate and opposition dies on the vine.
Posted by: Tony at October 30, 2007 11:56 AM
Tony - an interesting take, if a bit fatalistic for my taste.
I do not believe America is moving toward the European quasi-one party status you describe (we could debate the merits of that notion at another time). Rather, it seems to me the country is itching to break out of its historical two-party straight jacket. The fastest growing group of voters in America is independents, not Democrats.
As for a socialized state, don't bet on it here. In fact, just look at many European countries today - they are attempting to break out from under the crippling costs of the welfare states created after WWII.
The healthcare system in America needs to be overhauled, but it won't be in the Euro way you describe.
Posted by: houtopia at October 30, 2007 03:37 PM
Wishful thinking Chronicle. The "evan" vote will go solidly Repub due to the extremist idiots of Moron.Org and the Harry Reid clones. These two entities will cause the conservatives amd moderate dems to vote en mass and throw out the Koolaid wanabees.
Posted by: Battle at October 30, 2007 03:52 PM