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November 02, 2007
One More Look At Early Vote
Today is the last day to vote early for the 2007 general election. Polls are open until 7 p.m. this evening, and a list of locations is here. Election Day, of course, is next Tuesday the 6th.
A few days ago, we looked at the last week's early vote totals in comparison with the 2005 election. Through last week, the in-person early vote was running about 65% of the 2005 total.
Here are some updated numbers through yesterday:
2005 in-person early vote through Day 11: 53,152
2007 in-person early vote through Day 11: 32,947 (62% of the 2005 number)
2005 mail ballots returned through Day 11: 3,618
2007 mail ballots returned through Day 11: 6,432 (up 77% from the 2005 number)
2005 total votes through Day 11: 56,770
2007 total votes through Day 11: 39,379 (69% of the 2005 number)
So, while early in-person voting is way down from 2005, mail ballots are up significantly. In total, we are at 69% of the 2005 number. If the trend holds today and next Tuesday, that would put the City of Houston vote at about 132,000, and the countywide vote at about 229,000 - turnout in the neighborhood of 11-12%.
It is also interesting to compare some of the individual early vote location totals from 2005 to 2007. The heaviest early voting location in the county is always the Metropolitan Multi-Service Center on W. Gray in the Montrose/River Oaks area. It still holds the title, but the drop-off is striking.
2005 early in-person vote at Metropolitan MSC through Day 11: 4,717
2007 early in-person vote at Metropolitan MSC through Day 11: 2,620 (56% of 2005 number)
Several early vote locations are way below their 2005 totals:
Katy 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,635
Katy 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 424 (26% of 2005 number)
Tomball 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,463
Tomball 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 407 (28% of 2005 number)
(Note: Tomball had two school district trustee positions up for election in 2005 -- not sure about 2007)
Pasadena 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 2,509
Pasadena 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 817 (33% of 2005 number)
(Note: the City of Pasadena had two propositions on the ballot in 2005, and there was a special election for state representative to replace Joe Moreno, which may explain the difference)
There are a few locations, however, which are voting above their 2005 totals, mostly in the south side African American locations, as well as on the north side in Acres Homes and at Beebe Tabernacle, and out northwest in Jersey Village.
South Side African American:
Power Center 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 540
Power Center 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 736 (up 36% from 2005 number)
Sunnyside MSC 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,246
Sunnyside MSC 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,653 (up 33% from 2005 number)
Palm Center 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,341
Palm Center 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,525 (up 14% from 2005 number)
These south side increases are likely explained by the open seat race for Houston City Council District D, as well as the HISD Bond election and an HISD Trustee race.
North Side African American:
Beebe Tabernacle 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 840
Beebe Tabernacle 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,046 (up 25% from 2005 number)
Acres Homes MSC 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,165
Acres Homes MSC 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,258 ( up 8% from 2005 number)
The north side African American neighborhoods is where opposition to the HISD Bond is centered, which likely explains increased turnout, as well as school board races in Aldine and HISD.
Northwest:
Jersey Village 2005 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,713
Jersey Village 2007 in-person early vote total through Day 11: 1,832 (up 7% from 2005 number)
This increase is almost certainly explained by a school bond issue for Cy Fair ISD.
Open Houston City Council races in Districts E and I do not seem to have inspired heavy turnout so far. In District E, both the Clear Lake and Kingwood early voting locations are running about half of their 2005 totals. In District I, the HCC Southeast voting location is at 83% of its 2005 number.
Stay tuned.
Posted by houtopia at November 2, 2007 09:12 AM
Comments
Don't you think the prop 2 ban on gay marriage in Texas had some impact on turnout two yrs ago?
Posted by: Burt Levine at November 3, 2007 10:13 PM