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November 26, 2007
Things Are Heating Up
We are back to blogging after a chilly holiday weekend, and things are warming up - both weather-wise here in Texas and on the presidential front in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Houston, it was a beautiful day, with abundant sunshine and a high temperature of 60 degrees. In caucus-crazed Iowa and primary-focused NH, the political heat has been turned up on both the Democratic and Republican races, as the big days (January 3rd and 8th, respectively) are now just over a month away.
On the Democratic side, the two frontrunners seem to have swapped places in recent days. Down for the count in the news coverage (which is ridiculous on its face since no one has yet voted) just a few weeks ago, Barack Obama now seems to have the upper hand. Silly what one good poll number will do for you, huh? Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, now seems to be scrapping. Her polling numbers, inside Iowa and out, seem to have slipped a bit. Seems like natural tightening to us, rather than any fundamental change in the race, as folks are only now beginning to focus in a bit, but you know the press.
Obama has now assumed the confident frontrunner position, while Clinton is trying to take him down a peg. Meanwhile, John Edwards hangs around in third place, perhaps waiting to capitalize on the other two's skirmishes. With five weeks to go, in our judgment Iowa represents all the marbles for the Democratic nomination. If Hillary Clinton finds a way to win on January 3rd, we believe she will run the table. If not, we have a race and it's on to New Hampshire. Due to the expense of the February 3rd mega-state showdown, Obama is likely the only Clinton alternative who can make the race for the long haul. He's raised roughly what she has, while Edwards is just about broke. Hard to believe one sparsely populated state with a demographically homogenous population may choose the 2008 nominee, but such is the current system.
On the Republican side, it's no more Mr. Nice Rudy -- the "Nasty Man" has returned. On his campaign bus in New Hampshire, Giuliani unleashed a barrage of attacks against current GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney. Rudy cited Romney's failure as Massachusetts governor on a host of issues, including taxes, crime and health care.
Clearly trying to right his own sliding poll numbers and put a dent in Romney, Giuliani has foresworn his pledge to run a positive campaign, claiming Romney's repeated attacks have forced him to respond. Whatever his rationale, Rudy is taking the gloves off and beginning to show his true colors. Romney should take notice.
Of course, this latest jockeying only further clouds an already unclear Republican nomination picture. Unlike on the Democratic side, at this point it is difficult to see any single candidate in the GOP field racking up enough delegates after February 5th to win the whole enchilada.
So, after months of campaign coverage when noone cared, things are finally getting interesting. Hey, for this political junkie, it's more booze in the egg nog. Let's party!
Posted by houtopia at November 26, 2007 07:16 PM