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November 20, 2007
Two New Polls Of Note
We are churning towards the early presidential nomination contests, and the press is looking for angles - any angles - to pique interest in the races for the Democratic and Republican nominations that have been underway for a mind-numbing year already. Two new polls out yesterday generated mild interest here.
The first is an ABC News/Washington Post look at the Democratic race in Iowa. Now, a few headlines on the Internets have boldly proclaimed the poll shows "Obama Takes Lead In Iowa", or something similar. That's a bit of a stretch folks. The poll has Obama at 30%, Clinton at 26%, and Edwards at 22%. While Barack has moved up modestly since the last poll (Clinton has stayed the same), a 4-point "lead" is within the margin of error of the poll. In other words, they are basically tied, as they have been for months, though there is some small but real positive movement in Obama's numbers and some signs of concern for Clinton.
Of course, the press is looking for any opportunity to change the narrative of a race that has been essentially stable for months, so we are hardly surprised by some of the hyperbole we've seen.
One note about polling the Iowa Caucus -- it's hard. The nature of a caucus system makes it very difficult to measure support in a single poll. For one thing, it is difficult to predict who is likely to attend the caucus rather than simply vote. Unlike a normal primary election, in a caucus, voters must commit to a process that takes hours, rather than a quick trip to the polling place. Secondly, a caucuser's first candidate choice is not necessarily where he or she will end up at the end of the process. Once an initial tally is done, all kinds of jockeying, horse-trading, etc., goes on, and many participants switch their allegiances multiple times before arriving at their final decisions.
So, take any and all polling on the Iowa caucuses with some measure of skepticism. That said, Iowa has always shaped up as a difficult state in the nomination hunt for Senator Clinton, so we are not surprised that her healthy lead elsewhere has not translated into success in the Hawkeye State.
On the Republican side, a more interesting new survey of New Hampshire GOP primary voters is out from CNN. In a nutshell, Romney & Paul are up, Rudy's down, McCain's holding steady, and Fred Thompson is collapsing.
Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, now garners 33% of GOP support in neighborhing New Hampshire; no surprise there. As we have written, Romney appears to be counting on early successes in Iowa and New Hampshire to build momentum for his nomination heading into the big states showdown on February 5th. So far, that's looking like a good strategy, given the weakness of the candidate field. Ron Paul doubled his support from 4% to 8%. Hey, New Hampshire, with it's "live free or die" libertarian ethos should be a natural fit for Paul, so his gains there don't surprise us.
Giuliani, on the other hand, has seen his numbers erode by a third - from 24% support down to 16%, once again bolstering our argument that the more you get to know Rudy, the less you like him. (Maybe his campaign should send Rick Perry to NH, given how much good he did in Iowa.)
John McCain, written off for dead by pretty much everybody, is holding steady in 2nd place at 18%. We have always thought that in this lackluster GOP field, McCain would ultimately be the strongest general election candidate. He's battle tested (politically and otherwise), and still has crossover appeal stemming from his maverick, outspoken style, despite his embarassing flirtation with the relgious right early in the campaign. McCain is broke, and is an extreme longshot to win the nomination, but it is not impossible that GOP voters may eventually come back to him, however grudgingly, given the lack of a better alternative.
Then there's Grandpa Fred. Once the Great White Hope of the 2008 GOP presidential field, Thompson has laid an absolute egg since entering the race, and it shows in his NH numbers, which have nose-dived from a promising 13% in September to 4% in this latest poll. Not campaigning hard, not raising much money, sounding incoherent on issues; this is not the behavior of a serious candidate for president. And maybe it's just the lack of makeup and soft lighting he gets on Law & Order, but Thompson looks 15 years older on the campaign trail than he did on TV. Given his performance as a candidate so far, Fred's likely to be back to TV makeup and lighting (if the writer's strike ever settles) before he knows it.
Stay tuned folks, actual voting is approaching fast.
Posted by houtopia at November 20, 2007 08:55 AM