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December 31, 2007
Happy New Year
Houtopia has just returned from a week-long vacation in Paris -- c'etait magnifique.
As we say goodbye to 2007 and prepare to usher in the new year, we should take a moment to take stock of the year gone by. Today's New York Times editorial makes a powerful statement about what was not right about America in 2007.
But Americans are ultimately optimists, and it is with a glass half full attitude we should greet the new year and seek to make this country and world a better place.
It is in that spirit that we wish all of you a peaceful, prosperous, happy and healthy new year. Raise your glass!
Posted by houtopia at 07:15 PM | Comments (1)
December 21, 2007
McCain's Resurgence
The reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. We always thought John McCain had a chance to find his way back into the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, albeit a small one. His campaign had a disastrous first half of the year, and he was left for dead by the rest of the field during the summer.
The trouble for the rest of the field is, it stinks, and GOP voters know it. For many weeks, "undecided" led in the polls. Various flavors of the month were tried -- Giuliani, Romney, Thompson (the idea at least), and most recently Huckabee, but none of these guys seems to have any staying power. McCain, meanwhile, scaled back his operation, dropped the right-wing pandering routine that was so transparently phony, and quietly began to right the ship, mostly focusing on New Hampshire.
McCain's poll numbers stabilized at a low but still present level, and one by one his rivals began falling by the way side. The Arizona senator is now looking like the fallback choice. His poll numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are on the move, and his once dead fundraising appears to be showing signs of life.
We have always believed McCain was the most electable of the 2008 Republican lot. He's a serious policy guy, has been around long enough to be completely vetted, and still maintains considerable crossover appeal to independent voters (especially when he dumped the Jerry Falwell routine.) In fact, we think he's the only electable candidate on the GOP side. A number of newspaper editorial boards seem to concur.
Watch John McCain folks. He appears to be back from the dead.
Posted by houtopia at 11:01 PM | Comments (0)
December 19, 2007
Craddick's Gift That Keeps On Giving
Several months ago, just before the tumultuous end of the 2007 session of the Texas Legislature, we wrote that, as disastrous for Texas as Tom Craddick Speakership of the Texas House has been, there might be good political reasons to keep him around for a while. As we all know, Craddick narrowly survived the session. But with the state facing myriad public policy challenges, Craddick's iron-fisted, partisan leadership style seems to be wearing thin.
We remember that the end of the legisatlive session was a complete fiasco, with numerous challenges to Craddick's authority, challenges that -- in blatant defiance of House rules -- he refused to recognize. Readers will also recall that a few months ago, Grand Prairie representative Kirk England left the Republican Party to become a Democrat. Last night in Fort Worth, Dan Barrett, a Democrat, won a special election to fill the remainder of retiring GOP State Rep.Anna Mowery's term in a solidly Republican district. And late today word came that El Paso Republican representative Pat Haggerty, a rumored Craddick primary target, will challenge the Speaker in 2009.
As Paul Burka noted today, since Tom Craddick became Speaker, the Republican majority in the Texas House has shrunk from 26 seats to 8. As another GOP Craddick challenger, Jim Keffer said today, "Tom Craddick is a sinking ship for the Republican Party of Texas."
Strong words indeed. And for our part they validate the position we took months ago -- Tom Craddick remaining Speaker is a powerful force for Democratic gain and Republican loss. His failed but continuing Speakership is a poster child for change in state government.
In other words, during the holiday season Tom Craddick is the gift that keeps on giving. Keep those presents coming, Tom.
Posted by houtopia at 10:17 PM | Comments (0)
December 17, 2007
Still Battling The Bond
Readers will recall that in November's general election, voters in the Houston Independent School District narrowly approved an $805 million bond issue to improve security and science facilities on campuses district-wide, as well as repair and replace dozens of schools. The plan involved closing a handful of schools, largely of historic significance in the local African American community. This part of the bond issue proved the most controversial, and is why it barely passed. (Disclosure: Houtopia did some work early in the campaign for the pro-bond group.)
Despite fairly organized opposition and a slew of negative press stories about HISD and the bond, it did pass. The opponents, however, do not appear ready to go gentle into that good night. Today the Chronicle reported that a group of parents and students have filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block the sale of the recently approved bonds, alleging discrimination against poor and minority children.
Evidently, some folks are following that old political strategy of, if you can't win at the ballot box, give it a try in court. HISD, for its part, insists the suit is without merit. We can't help but think that badly needed money for the school district will be delayed as the lawyers fight it out, and that HISD students will lose out. We shall see what happens.
Posted by houtopia at 10:23 PM | Comments (0)
December 15, 2007
Has Bubba Lost His Mojo?
Love him or hate him, most seasoned observers acknowledge Bill Clinton as the greatest political talent of at least the last half century. After all, who could survive either Gennifer Flowers or Monica Lewinsky in one political lifetime, much less both? Bill Clinton's mastery of the game of politics has widely been deemed an asset to his wife Hillary Rodham Clinton's own campaign for president in 2008.
Lately, however, some of the former president's statements aiming to support Hillary's campaign have lacked the Clinton touch. For example, Bill's recent claim that he opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, whether or not it was taken out of context, is at odds with numerous previous public statements on the record. Far from furthering Hillary's cause, his controversial comment instead reminded Americans - even those of the Democratic primary voting variety - of the Clintons' complicated relationship with the truth.
And last night, Bill Clinton apparently had a less than ideal interview with Charlie Rose. He offered numerous criticisms of Obama's candidacy, and ended up the sitting red-faced and shaking (at which point his staff cut the session short.) Indignance at Obama's temerity to run (note: if elected, he would be older than Clinton was when he took office) given his lack of experience, as well as unprovoked (and uncontrolled) anger from the former president are hardly the messages his wife's campaign wants to telegraph right now.
Bubba seems to have momentarily lost his political mojo, and it could not have come at a worse time for Team Clinton. Hillary is locked in a tough battle in Iowa, a naturally tough state for her, and has seen polling numbers tighten in the next early primary states - New Hampshire and South Carolina. We have always believed a win in Iowa was unlikely for Clinton, but if she pulls it off the race is over. If she doesn't come out on top in the Hawkeye State, we may have a real primary race, though she still holds the upper hand.
In other words, the Clinton campaign cannot afford the mistakes Bill and the rest of them have made in recent weeks. Frankly, such ineptitude from her team does not inspire confidence about its ability to do battle with the much rougher Republicans in the general election. Hillary's supposedly stellar team hasn't wowed us. You guys have run a B-minus campaign to date. If you want to win this nomination and the presidency, it's time to bring your A-game.
Posted by houtopia at 11:13 PM | Comments (0)
December 10, 2007
Trouble In Hillaryland?
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee or won't she? The national political press, which spent most of the last several months playing up her inevitability, seems to have decided it wants a primary race after all.
Stories have abounded over the last few weeks about the Obama campaign hitting its stride while Clinton has stumbled. Tightening polls have been spun as a sea change in the race. And over the weekend, Oprah Winfrey lent her considerable star power to further stoke the Obama-mania flames.
Today came the predictable story about tensions in the Clinton campaign, penned by Bloomberg's Al Hunt. This one includes the usual team internal strife, and most juicily, grousing from Hillary about Bill Clinton's recent boneheaded Iraq War statement, and Bubba's own anger at the campaign's missteps.
So what does it all mean? First off, we never believed HRC's large early leads in the polls were particularly meaningful. She has greater name ID than all the other candidates and residual good will left over from the Clinton presidency, which explains a big (but soft) early lead over her Democratic rivals.
As actual voting gets closer, however, the electorate begins paying more attention. They learn more about the other candidates in the race and are perhaps reminded of things about Mrs. Clinton they don't much like. In other words, such tightening of the race was a given, particularly with the press pushing it. After all, who's interested in reading and watching coverage of a race that's over before it begins?
In our judgment, the early primary state horseraces were always going to become at least somewhat competitive. And while Obama's surge should not be minimized, neither should it be overblown. Hillary Clinton still holds considerable advantages in the national primary contest, and it will take more than a few favorable polls to change that fact.
That said, we are glad things have gotten more competitive. Stay tuned!
Posted by houtopia at 09:58 PM | Comments (0)
December 07, 2007
Trucks In China
The NY Times is out with its latest article in a series about China -- "Choking on Growth." In this latest installment (the seventh), Keith Bradsher chronicles the pollution problem caused by diesel trucks.
China, unsurprisingly, has much more lax standards for the quality of gasoline, and in particular, diesel fuel. So, millions of diesel-powered trucks release pollutants into the air there every day, a problem ironically exacerbated by a diesel fuel shortage, which causes these trucks to idle for hours and pollute while waiting in line to fill up.
While the Chinese government has begun to trying to mitigate the diesel pollution issue, worries about stifling economic growth or stoking inflation have slowed progress on the issue. Meanwhile, public health problems linked to environmental degradation about in China.
The Times series offers a truly fascinating and frightening look at the enivronmental challenges confronting today's China. Check it out.
Posted by houtopia at 11:00 PM | Comments (0)
December 05, 2007
Huckabee's Welcome To The Big Time
Mike Huckabee has been on the rise. Over the last few weeks, the former Arkansas governor and current candidate for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination has seen his star rise, as he has climbed the polls - both nationally and in early primary states, particularly Iowa. Now he is finding out what it's like to run with the big boys.
There's an old adage in politics that you don't bother attacking an opponent who poses no threat, and until recently Huckabee's candidacy merited little to no attention from his GOP rivals. Broke and trailing badly in the polls, Huckabee's populist, social conservative message simply wasn't moving the needle for him.
But things have changed in the last few weeks, especially in Iowa. His message is a natural fit for Republican primary voters in the Hawkeye state, and he has undoubtedly filled a void the lackluster field of frontrunners has left up for grabs. Huckabee's cultivated image of a true religious conservative with compassion for the struggles of ordinary people started to resonate, even beyond Iowa, and he has emerged as a legitimate threat.
Huckabee's surge, not surprisingly, has drawn the attention of his competition, as evidenced by questions raised in the press about possible ethical problems as governor and his lack of knowledge of subsatantive issues, particularly in the area of foreign policy. Today, however, he is facing a far more serious political problem -- his involvement as governor in the pardoning of a serial rapist in Arkansas who went on to rape again and murder after his release from prison.
At the Huffington Post, Murray Waas has penned a stunning piece on Huckabee's role in the 1999 release of rapist Wayne Dumond, as well as his apparent obfuscation of that role during his presidential campaign. The story cuts at the heart of Huckabee's carefully cultivated boy scout image and presents him with the first major challenge of his presidential campaign.
In one sense, Huckabee should consider the attack flattering and a sign of respect. After all, no one would bother if he weren't a threat, right? On the other hand, the nature of the attention the story is likely to draw will hardly flatter his presidential prospects. In fact, it could be downright deadly.
How Huckabee responds to this first real challenge will tell the tale about whether he is a real contender for the Republican nomination, or just another pretender. Stay tuned.
Posted by houtopia at 10:30 PM | Comments (0)
December 03, 2007
The L-Word
In a friendly interview published in Sunday's Houston Chronicle, former president George H.W. Bush demurred at reporter Tony Freemantle's question about when an authorized biography might finally be forthcoming, saying "That's what we call the legacy factor. The L-word. We don't like the L-word." Apparently the same cannot be said about his son, the current president.
In a piece posted earlier this evening at Politico, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write that George W. Bush plans to use the coming weeks to difuse fights with Congress and lay groundwork to improve his image over the final year of his presidency. Preemptive action on the mortgage crisis, and incremental changes on health care and energy production will be the domestic policy focus, while Africa and a possible Middle East peace agreement (wouldn't hold your breath on that one), will lead on the foreign policy front.
As one Bush aide noted, these actions are aimed to remind people of the president's earlier successes and "any legacy implications will be a byproduct." Given President Bush's dismal poll numbers and that he is quacking into his last lame duck year, such a strategy is understandable. It is a shame it has taken so long.
After September 11th, George W. Bush had a unique opportunity to leave the acrimony and division of the Clinton years behind, unite the nation and solidify a successful legacy very early in his administration. Instead of building consensus and guiding the country on a sensible policy course, he veered hard to the right, dividing America and enacting extremely risky policy, particularly in matters of foreign relations and national security. The country has paid an enormous price (the ultimate price for some its fine citizens in the military), as has his short-term political legacy.
While George W. Bush's long-term legacy is obviously yet to be written, the Iraq War and its concomitant controversial policies (Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, etc.) will almost certainly define the bulk of that legacy. And despite some short-term security improvements on the ground in Iraq achieved by the troop surge, the long-term prospects for success there remain problematic to say the least.
It is an interesting contrast that the younger Bush already seems preoccupied with how history will view him, while his father remains unconcerned about the subject nearly 20 years after he assumed the presidency. Yet another example of the well-dcoumented differences between father and son, and one which speaks to George W. Bush's undeniably greater political success -- after all, he won a second term.
But it is precisely the current president's focus on the political above all, that has made his administration such a disaster on the policy side. Ignoring the advice of seasoned hands in favor of ideological zealots, replacing competent career political professionals with political hacks, and narrowing his information intake to only that which satisfied a radical policy predisposition helped wreck George W. Bush's presidency.
Instead of relying solely on a "higher father" for guidance, George W. should have sought advice from dear old dad. Perhaps if he had, he too would be unconcerned with the "l-word" and the country wouldn't be in such a ditch.
Posted by houtopia at 10:53 PM | Comments (0)
December 02, 2007
Who's Afraid Of Obama?
Just a few weeks ago, conventional wisdom held that New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was poised to run away with the 2008 Democratic nomination for president. National and early primary state polls consistently showed her comfortably ahead of her rivals. And while current polling shows her still in a relatively strong position in the race, her advantage has clearly eroded some in recent days. Indeed, her chief rival - Illinois Senator Barack Obama -- has opened up a modest lead in Iowa, the first state to vote, and has tightened the race considerably in New Hampshire, which votes a few days later.
We consider this narrowing of the race, such as it is, healthy for the nomination process. We do not, at this point, have a dog in the Democratic primary fight. We do believe there should be a real contest. Despite a weak presidential field on the Republican side, recent history has demonstrated the GOP knows how to win these elections. (The 2000 Florida fiasco notwithstanding, which we'll call a tie, Republicans have won four of the six remaining presidential races since 1980.) The eventual Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is, will need to be prepared to give and take some serious punches in order to win, and a healthy primary contest should be good preparation for the general election.
But back to Barack. Frank Rich had a very astute column in this morning's NY Times, analyzing Obama's resurgence in the early primary races, including some healthy jabs at the Beltway establishment that had all but annointed Clinton the nominee.
Rich also notes that the GOP strategy for victory in 2008 is predicated almost entirely on Hillary being the opponent, and wonders just how Republicans could pivot and run a totally different campaign if someone else is the nominee. He suggests that it is the Republican Party, as well as the Clinton campaign, which may be viewing Obama's resurgence with considerable trepidation.
Of course, a few polls a month before voting begins do not, in our judgment, fundamentally change the Democratic race for president, but at least intimate there may actually be one. And, money and resource considerations aside and regardless of the final outcome, isn't having some semblance of a real contest a good thing?
Posted by houtopia at 10:24 PM | Comments (0)
December 01, 2007
Iraq And The 2008 Campaign
The Iraq War has been the predominant national political issue for five years now. From the runup to the invasion and its immediate aftermath - which reaped huge political benefits for President Bush and the Republican Party in 2002 and 2004 - to a deteriorating situation on the ground in Iraq, which redounded to Democrats' advantage in the 2006 election, the war has had a huge effect on the American political climate.\
That may be changing, at least for the time being. In a very interesting article on Politico yesterday, Martin Kady and Jim VandeHei note that Democratic Members of Congress are reporting the war is not as salient an issue among their constituents as it was just a few months ago.
The principal reason for this shift is not hard to devine. The "surge" of 30,000 or so additional U.S. troops into Iraq has significantly reduced overall violence in the country as a whole and, more importantly for public opinion here, death and injury of American military personnel. Count us among the grateful for the reduced casualties.
Whether or not the current security improvements in Iraq are sustainable over the longer term is debatable. We certainly hope so, though we have our doubts, mostly because the current increased troop presence there will be very difficult to maintain for a lengthy period, to say the least. The American military is badly overextended right now, and we simply do not have sufficient replacements these days to relieve them.
For purposes of the 2008 election, however, it may be that Iraq will not have the political impact it has had in recent cycles. As the article states, some Democrats are already sounding the alarm to this effect. In our view, Democrats should be plenty cautious about their 2008 prospects, and must be prepared to make adjustments to the shifting political terrain. Sure, thanks to George W. Bush, things have set up pretty well for next year's election, but Dems have hardly demonstrated much ability in recent years to take advantage of opportunities.
In other words, everyone should assume the 2008 election will be one helluva fight -- for president, Congress, and at the state and local level. Things here in Harris County should be a battle royale. Let's get ready to rumble!
Posted by houtopia at 10:03 AM | Comments (0)