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December 01, 2007
Iraq And The 2008 Campaign
The Iraq War has been the predominant national political issue for five years now. From the runup to the invasion and its immediate aftermath - which reaped huge political benefits for President Bush and the Republican Party in 2002 and 2004 - to a deteriorating situation on the ground in Iraq, which redounded to Democrats' advantage in the 2006 election, the war has had a huge effect on the American political climate.\
That may be changing, at least for the time being. In a very interesting article on Politico yesterday, Martin Kady and Jim VandeHei note that Democratic Members of Congress are reporting the war is not as salient an issue among their constituents as it was just a few months ago.
The principal reason for this shift is not hard to devine. The "surge" of 30,000 or so additional U.S. troops into Iraq has significantly reduced overall violence in the country as a whole and, more importantly for public opinion here, death and injury of American military personnel. Count us among the grateful for the reduced casualties.
Whether or not the current security improvements in Iraq are sustainable over the longer term is debatable. We certainly hope so, though we have our doubts, mostly because the current increased troop presence there will be very difficult to maintain for a lengthy period, to say the least. The American military is badly overextended right now, and we simply do not have sufficient replacements these days to relieve them.
For purposes of the 2008 election, however, it may be that Iraq will not have the political impact it has had in recent cycles. As the article states, some Democrats are already sounding the alarm to this effect. In our view, Democrats should be plenty cautious about their 2008 prospects, and must be prepared to make adjustments to the shifting political terrain. Sure, thanks to George W. Bush, things have set up pretty well for next year's election, but Dems have hardly demonstrated much ability in recent years to take advantage of opportunities.
In other words, everyone should assume the 2008 election will be one helluva fight -- for president, Congress, and at the state and local level. Things here in Harris County should be a battle royale. Let's get ready to rumble!
Posted by houtopia at December 1, 2007 10:03 AM