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December 02, 2007
Who's Afraid Of Obama?
Just a few weeks ago, conventional wisdom held that New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was poised to run away with the 2008 Democratic nomination for president. National and early primary state polls consistently showed her comfortably ahead of her rivals. And while current polling shows her still in a relatively strong position in the race, her advantage has clearly eroded some in recent days. Indeed, her chief rival - Illinois Senator Barack Obama -- has opened up a modest lead in Iowa, the first state to vote, and has tightened the race considerably in New Hampshire, which votes a few days later.
We consider this narrowing of the race, such as it is, healthy for the nomination process. We do not, at this point, have a dog in the Democratic primary fight. We do believe there should be a real contest. Despite a weak presidential field on the Republican side, recent history has demonstrated the GOP knows how to win these elections. (The 2000 Florida fiasco notwithstanding, which we'll call a tie, Republicans have won four of the six remaining presidential races since 1980.) The eventual Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is, will need to be prepared to give and take some serious punches in order to win, and a healthy primary contest should be good preparation for the general election.
But back to Barack. Frank Rich had a very astute column in this morning's NY Times, analyzing Obama's resurgence in the early primary races, including some healthy jabs at the Beltway establishment that had all but annointed Clinton the nominee.
Rich also notes that the GOP strategy for victory in 2008 is predicated almost entirely on Hillary being the opponent, and wonders just how Republicans could pivot and run a totally different campaign if someone else is the nominee. He suggests that it is the Republican Party, as well as the Clinton campaign, which may be viewing Obama's resurgence with considerable trepidation.
Of course, a few polls a month before voting begins do not, in our judgment, fundamentally change the Democratic race for president, but at least intimate there may actually be one. And, money and resource considerations aside and regardless of the final outcome, isn't having some semblance of a real contest a good thing?
Posted by houtopia at December 2, 2007 10:24 PM