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January 30, 2008
Elimination Wednesday
The respective fields for the 2008 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations each were winnowed a bit further today, with John Edwards exiting the Democratic race and Rudy Giuliani dropping out of the Republican contest. Both developments are sure to impact the respective races, though in decidedly different ways.
Giuliani's departure will almost certainly redound to current frontrunner John McCain's benefit. Rudy, who ran the single worst major campaign for the presidency we can remember (wonder if he'll sue his consultants for malpractice), definitely appealed to the more moderate wing of the GOP. With liberal positions on social issues and a less than pure record on hot button issues like immigration, Giuliani attracted supporters who would seem a much more natural fit for the maverick McCain (whom Rudy endorsed), than Mitt Romney, at least the version of himself Romney is selling these days.
Rudy's catastrophic collapse -- recall he was the GOP frontrunner just a few months ago -- will no doubt be studied and presented as an example of how not to run a presidential campaign. Giuliani's team gambled that he could survive losses in several early states, each of which sapped momentum from his campaign, and yet still make a successful stand in Florida. Keep in mind that Rudy spent more money than anyone else in the field in New Hampshire, camped out there for weeks, and even led in the polls there for a while, only to pull up stakes a few weeks before the actual primary and finish in 4th place with 9% of the vote.
Beyond the Giuliani campaign's strategic mistakes, the primary results hint at the issue we always thought threatened Rudy's chances the most: he was a lousy candidate. Giuliani's early support was, in our view, based simply on better name ID than most of his rivals as well as vague positive feelings about his handling of the September 11th tragedy. The problem with Rudy is the more you know, the less you like. And GOP voters in early primary states figured this out too.
On the Democratic side, John Edwards' departure was curious more for its timing than anything else. After a poor showing in Iowa, where he had invested an enormous amount of time and resources, most thought the handwriting was on the wall for Edwards. But on he went, losing in the subsequent contests but picking up delegates along the way. Most thought he would continue on this path at least through the February 5th primary palooza in hopes of accumulating enough delegates to buy himself some leverage with the eventual nominee, leverage that might land him say, an Attorney General appointment in the new administration, should the Democratic nominee win in November.
Edwards abrupt suspension of his campaign makes one wonder. Was it because he's out of money? Maybe, but that's been the case for weeks now. Has his wife Elizabeth's health worsened? We certainly hope not. Or, has he made some kind of a deal with one of the remaining candidates, and if so, who? Now we're talking, folks. We will be very surprised if Edwards does not throw his support behind one of the remaining candidates before February 5th.
If Edwards does endorse, which candidate will it be? That, of course, is unknown to all but a few, but our money's on Obama. For one, Edwards has said in the past that he identified more with Obama than any other candidate in the field. For another, his criticism during the campaign was directed much more heavily at Hillary Clinton than Obama. Finally, the Clinton campaign's negative telephone calls about Edwards just prior to the South Carolina primary likely did little to foster warm fuzzies from Edwards towards HRC.
So, gradually the field of candidates is pared down on both sides. We have essentially a two-man race on the Republican side between McCain and Romney (Huckabee is fading as fast as he rose). and a clear two-person contest for the Democratic nomination. Another fascinating day in a most memorable campaign.
Posted by houtopia at 10:47 PM | Comments (1)
January 28, 2008
More Of The Same
Well, President George W. Bush's final State of the Union Speech is in the books. He may as well have just read one of his previous efforts. Call it consistency; call it total obliviousness; but Bush is now the presidential equivalient of a traveling salesman selling encyclopedias in the digital age. He's hocking outdated crap that noone's buying.
After paying brief lip service to the country's troubled economic situation, Bush launched into his tired wish list of goodies for ideological conservatives, an agenda he couldn't advance back when he had poltiical capital to spend, much less now as a lame duck stalled at 30% approval in the polls. No wonder he defensively declares he's still relavent.
The pomp and circumstance that SOTUS provides always offers some entertainment, and there was that, but to consider the stale substance of the speech itself, in light of all that is happening at home and abroad is simply sad. An economy in trouble, a mortgage crisis, spiraling health care and education costs, and a disastrous war in Iraq all deserve serious attention, and beg for fresh ideas. Instead, George Bush offers faith-based institutions and banning cloning - wow.
Lucky for him, nobody watched.
Posted by houtopia at 09:43 PM | Comments (1)
January 21, 2008
Texas Gets Some Stroke
Back last year, when the Texas Legislature was in session, there was a good deal of chatter among political insiders about whether or not Texas would attempt to change its March 4th primary date (for both major parties), and thus become a player in the respective Republican and Democratic nomination contests. The Lege and Governor Rick Perry, perhaps thinking of his pal Rudy Giuliani, whom he later endorsed and who's liberal positions on social issues (not to mention checkered personal past) would not likely sit well with Texas GOP voters, decided against introducing legislation to move the date. Most of us then, and reasonably so, kissed Texas' chance of mattering goodbye.
After all, it is not as if there will be a meaningful presidential election contest here. Whatever political changes may be occurring in the state, and there are many, Texas will almost certainly give its 34 electoral college votes to the Republican presidential nominee in 2008. The primary was our only shot to avoid remaining irrelevant in the presidential sweepstakes, and even that opportunity seemed lost. Not so fast.
An unlikely turn of events may yet give Texas the national political stroke it yearns for -- in both parties. On the Republican side, a lackluster field of candidates has so far produced split results in early states, with John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee all claiming victories. Each of these three GOP candidates are pursuing wins in the primary palooza taking place in over 20 states on February 5th, as is Giuliani, who is yet to win a contest but is banking on Florida on January 29th to get him back in the race.
If the Republican field splits the spoils on February 5th, then March 4th, which includes the Texas and Ohio primaries, becomes very important indeed.
Mike Huckabee was the first Republican candidate to acknowledge this very real possibility in today's Houston Chronicle. Huckabee told attendees at a Navasota fundraiser hosted by Chuck Norris (cue Conan's Walker Texas Ranger lever!), that February 5th would not decide the race and that Texas might have to put him over the top. Perhaps the Huckster should consider dispatching Norris on a ninja-style mission to winnow the field.
Stay tuned, commercials to see who can out right-wing the other guy are coming to a Texas market near you.
Initially even less probable than a Texas GOP presidential contest, but now a growing possibility, is a Democratic showdown in the Lone Star State. The dynamics of the race on the Democratic side are, of course, much different than for the Republicans. Most importantly, we are now down to a two-candidate contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. In today's NY Times, Julie Bosman in fact posed the rather pathetic question of why John Edwards remains in the race.)
The two-person contest on February 5th makes a meaningful March 4th Texas Democratic presidential race less of a possibility, simply due to the probability of one of the contenders mopping up on Feb. 5th being much higher with only two real candidates than with a multi-candidate field. Given the closely contested split results so far, however, the likelihood of either Clinton or Obama sewing up the race in February seems to be shrinking, not growing. There is a good possibility the two Democrats will too divide up the delegates on Feb. 5th, which would undoubtedly set up a very important Texas contest.
The effects on both the Republican and Democratic primaries in Texas would be substantial. Turnout would balloon, which makes results much more difficult to predict, not only for the presidential contests, but for the myriad local races occurring across the state. It is, needless to say, a nervous if also exciting time for we political hacks across the Lone Star State. Like we said, stay tuned!
Posted by houtopia at 03:19 PM | Comments (0)
January 15, 2008
Scrambled Eggs
Just when you thought the 2008 race for the Republican presidential nomination was finally beginning to show some structure, Michigan goes and messes everything up. That's right folks, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, a Michigander, handily won the GOP primary there this evening, besting Arizona Senator John McCain by nine points.
Michigan was clearly a must-win for Romney. He grew up there, his father was governor of the state, and after an expensive strategy of investing heavily in Iowa and New Hampshire failed to produce a first-place finish in those two states, he badly needed a victory to avoid a collapse of his campaign. And by notching a win, he has rescrambled the Republican field.
McCain had clearly grabbed the momentum after an impressive win in New Hampshire, with various national and upcoming primary state polls showing him ahead. A closer look at those polls, however, reflected softness in that support. While McCain gained a modest lead, GOP voters remained quite open to an alternative. Today in Michigan it was Romney. In South Carolina in a few days, it may well be Huckabee. Later in the month, Giuliani, who managed just 3% in Michigan today, is hoping he's the guy in Florida (if he isn't you can kiss Rudy's campaign goodbye.)
In other words, split results in upcoming Republican primaries appear very likely, which means the race will likely drag on at least to March 4th, (when Texas votes and could be decisive), or possibly further. Some analysts even speculate the GOP race could go all the way to the national convention this summer. Such a possibility is stunning to contemplate. This is the party of order! Republicans don't do primaries, they coronate nominees! Not in 2008 - further evidence that the coalition George W. Bush has held together for the last seven years is coming apart at the seams.
So, on the GOP presidential candidates go. No one has the upper hand and fundraising is tough sledding for all of them. (Romney's personal wealth gives him an advantage in this regard.) Looks like this race is going to go on for a good while.
Posted by houtopia at 10:34 PM | Comments (1)
January 11, 2008
It's Time For Bubba To Be Quiet
How does the old saying go? When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Someone ought to tell that to former President Bill Clinton. (For the record, Houtopia has taken no public position backing any candidate in the 2008 presidential race, voted for Bill Clinton twice and is overall a fan of the former president.)
Over the last few weeks, Bill Clinton has taken to the campaign trail as attack dog in-chief on behalf of wife Hillary. Our take: Bubba has hurt her more than he's helped her. First of all, he looks terrible. Gaunt, yet puffy in the face, the former president simply hasn't looked healthy since his major heart surgery a few years ago. Not a compelling campaign visual in a year about change and the future, and when the opposition is a spry 46 year-old.
Neither has Bill Clinton been particularly stellar on the stump. Stories abounded from New Hampshire of lackluster speeches that spurned early exits by many audience members. It's been a long time since he's done this, and he's clearly not the campaigner he once was. (Hey, most candidates -- including Hillary -- would kill to have Bill's campaigning skills even on a bad day, but nonetheless...)
It is President Clinton's comments to the media, however, which have in our judgment done the most damage to HRC's efforts and his own reputation among Democrats. That old Clintonian parsing is back. From statements claiming he always opposed the Iraq War (statements at odds with the public record), to attacking Obama's public comments on the war, attacks which conveniently omit Obama's full comments, to declaring Barack's candidacy a "fairy tale" (and then today denying that's what he said), Bill has reminded America of the Clintons' casual relationship with the truth and thus done Hillary's campaign no favors.
The former president has also adopted a whining, petulant tone of late about the media's overall coverage of the Democratic nomination process. We don't think this tactic has served HRC's campaign well either. To us, it communicates outrage from Team Clinton that anyone would dare challenge their right to another tour in the White House - a notion that is offensive on many levels.
Our particularly favorite Bill Clinton jab at Obama is that he is young and inexperienced and would be a "risk" as president. Exactly what does Clinton think he was in 1992, when he was actually younger than Obama is now? Nice try, Bill.
Hillary's operation seems to have grasped that Bubba has not necessarily been a net positive to the campaign of late. You notice he has been a less visible presence on the campaign since the narrow New Hampshire victory Tuesday night. Of course, as the Clinton campaign attempts to better define HRC as a forward-looking change agent, trotting out Bill Clinton to build a bridge back to the 90s doesn't exactly work with the message.
So, it will be interesting to see if the Clinton campaign continues to try and minimize Bill's public profile going into the big nomination contests, or if Bubba continues to yack it up and further damage Hillary's prospects. If today is any indication, his three days in timeout are over.
Posted by houtopia at 03:40 PM | Comments (3)
January 08, 2008
Lazarus And Lazarette
The reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. John McCain and Hillary Clinton are back from the political dead. With victories in New Hampshire tonight, these Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls demonstrated they are very much alive for their respective party nominations, despite being left for dead by many in the punditry class (months ago in McCain's case and just in the last day or two with Hillary.)
McCain registered a five-point victory over Mitt Romney, who's campaign is clearly in trouble. Hillary Clinton eeked out a two-point win over Barack Obama, not significant in and of itself, but huge considering nearly all polls showed her 8-12% points behind headed into today's primary.
More on the ramifications of tonight's results tomorrow, but suffice to say, the races for both major party presidential nominations are very much alive. Not necessarily a bad development for those of us who love the contest.
Posted by houtopia at 11:32 PM | Comments (0)
January 07, 2008
Living Free Or Dying?
The Granite State of New Hampshire prepares for the nation's first official primary of the 2008 presidentilal election tomorrow, and the fundamentals of the campaigns in both parties hang in the balance.
On the Democratic side, it is simply amazing how the whole race has been turned on its head in just a matter of days. Only a few weeks ago, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton held big leads in New Hampshire polls, not to mention nationwide surveys of likely Democratic primary voters. The race looked tight in Iowa, with Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all bunched together, but otherwise she was in a commanding position. Oh how things have changed.
With Obama's seismic victory last Thursday night, the softness of HRC's early lead in New Hampshire became apparent, as it evaporated and was replaced by a nearly double-digit Obama lead. National polls, where Clinton led by over 20 points just a few weeks ago, have followed suit with a new Gallup survey out today showing the national race tied.
Team Clinton is clearly scrambling as it prepares to lose, perhaps big, in New Hampshire tomorrow night. Hillary even conjured up some tears today for the throng of national media covering her struggles. Hey, we'd be tempted to cry too if our fortunes had reversed as quickly as hers have the last few days.
The question is, if another defeat comes, how does HRC regroup? A steady stream of contests in Nevada, South Carolina & Florida follow New Hampshire, all leading to the 20-state primary palooza on February 5th. A huge consequence of such a front-loaded process (a process which, incidentally, must have made the then "inevitable" Clinton campaign salivate when it was put in place), is that momentum from one contest to another becomes an even more powerful driver of the ultimate result. Yes, the very monster Team Clinton coveted in the beginning may yet eat it alive.
Can HRC attack Obama? Of course, and she likely will, though such tactics are risky, and will assuredly further drive up her already high negatives. Can she find a new message? Much more difficult, in our judgment. In fact, one criticism of her Iowa campaign was its inability to settle on a core message and theme. "In it to win it", "The Hillary I know", "The change we need"...ugh. Such is the peril for a candidate about whom the public already has fully developed opinions. What can she say? Hillary Clinton, more than any candidate in either party, is a defined quantity in this race. Her team has always argued, not unreasonably, that being a known quantity made her the most electable in November. Her negatives are what they are, but won't go any higher, right? Yes, but by the same logic HRC's numbers are as much of a ceiling as they are a floor.
Obama, by contrast, is showing his tremendous upside. What goes up can certainly come down, but it's difficult at this point seeing how Hillary is the one who takes him down. Such is her task if she is to salvage the nomination. Stay tuned.
As for the Republicans, a far more complicated situation exists. Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, will clearly not prevail in New Hampshire tomorrow night. He is running a distant third in the Granite State, which neither embraces his evangelicalism nor trusts him on taxes. Still, with South Carolina looming, Huckabee, who has largely ignored New Hampshire, can afford a third, or even fourth-place finish there.
For former Masschusetts governor Mitt Romney, a victory in neighboring New Hampshire is desperately needed, but may prove elusive. While he trails John McCain by only a few points in current polls there, trail he does. A second consecutive loss for Romney could prove disastrous for him, as the race moves on to states where he lacks the organization he bought in IA and NH. Again, Mitt's strategy of investing big in the early states only works if you win them. A loss tomorrow and he's on life support.
As for McCain, he didn't do very well himself in Iowa, slipping to 4th place behind the catatonic Fred Thompson, but did benefit from Romney's weak finish there. McCain isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but a New Hampshire win tomorrow and he's back in the game. A Lazarus-like return for McCain would be more a signal of the GOP field's weakness than his strength. Should the Republican primary electorate ultimately nominate him, it will tell us they've gotten wise, as we have always believed him to be their strongest general election candidate.
Grandpa Fred continues to drift along, not doing well enough to pique any interest, but not doing quite badly enough to drop out? Again, after Iowa how could he drop out and endorse his buddy McCain after finishing ahead of him? Once again folks, a group of world-beaters this GOP group ain't.
Then there's Rudy. Mr. 9-11 conitnues to sink like a stone in the polls and tout his late state strategy. He's becoming so irrelevant these days, you almost feel like he needs another scandal to get his name back in the news. We'll see if Giuliani's banking on Florida at the end of the month will pay off for him, but we're betting that if he continues to finish out of the money in these early states, then out of the money he will stay. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Finally, Ron Paul. Expect Paul to do better than people think tomorrow night. While he polls a distant 4th along with Rudy, Paul likely draws a bunch of marginal voters who don't show up much in usual suspect primary voter polls. While Paul's strength is unique in a libertarian-like state such as New Hampshire and isn't likely to translate much elsewhere, he can and may well muck up the race even further for the rest of them tomorrow. We're betting he at least battles Huckabee for a clear third-place finish in New Hampshire, and could even make Mitt Romney sweat for second fiddle.
A truly fascinating campaign gets more and more interesting.
Posted by houtopia at 10:01 PM | Comments (1)
January 04, 2008
A Huck Of An Obamarific Evening
After a seemingly endless pre-primary presidential campaign, finally some actual voting! Iowans officially kicked off the respective nomination processes for the Democratic and Republican parties last night, with some very interesting results.
On the GOP side, the party establishment's worst nightmare came to pass last night as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, he of the Gomer Pyle-like visage, shocked the world and easily won the Republican contest despite being heavily outspent by Mitt Romney, who trailed 9 points behind. Huckabee earned 34% of the votes of the 116,000 or so Republicans who participated, while Romney could muster just 25% after spending upwards of $20 million of his own money. Ouch.
Not a good night for the former Massachusetts governor, who put on a smile to settle for the "silver medal" in the Hawkeye State, but must have been crying gold-plated tears inside. His campaign is in deep trouble. Romney made an early, calculated and expensive bet on investing heavily in early primary states -- a fine strategy as long as you win. But a disappointing loss to a guy with little money who was nowhere in the race just a month or so ago has Mitt staring failure in the face. Now he faces a virtual must-win in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, where a resurgent John McCain is giving him a real run for his money, and where non-conformist candidate Ron Paul will likely have a strong showing as well.
It was a mixed night for McCain,who managed only 4th in Iowa after failing to catch Fred Thompson. Note: how can Grandpa Fred bow out of the race and endorse his buddy the Arizona senator when he finished ahead of McCain in Iowa? Wonder if Thompson was disappointed he's got to continue a bit longer. On the other hand, Romney's misfortune is welcome for McCain, who may yet become the fallback choice for a primary electorate deeply unsatisfied with its options.
It was also a rough night for Rudy Giuliani, who managed just 4% of the Iowa vote, and continues his overall fade in the race. He's gambling on waiting until Florida at the end of the month, a strategy that obviously has heavy risk that the race will be on its way to over by then.
Huckabee is, for the moment, ascendant. His populist message and rock solid religious conservative credentials are clearly striking a chord with the evangelical base of the GOP electorate, who made up roughly 60% of the Iowa Republican caucus last night. But can he last? We are dubious. His total lack of foreign policy experience (and even basic knowledge) make him very high-risk in a general election, as do some frankly backward positions on social issues. We don't think he'll get that far. Look for the GOP establishment to do their best to gut him in the coming days. Stay tuned, it should be fun.
On the Democratic side, Illinois Senator Barack Obama rode massive turnout to a convincing victory over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Obama earned 38% of the delegates, compared to 30% for Edwards and just 29% for Clinton.
Obama soared out of the evening with a dynamite victory speech right on time for the late news, smartly seizing a unifying theme sure to be popular with those New Hampshire independents he so needs next Tuesday. It was for him, on all accounts, an excellent night.
Not as good a night for Senator Clinton, who always faced a tough slog in Iowa, a famously pacifist state where her steadfast support for the Iraq war has not played to rave reviews. Still, she and her team were clearly disappointed. So much of her nomination campaign has been built on inevitablility, that to have that notion shot down so quickly has sent her team scrambling.
In her concession speech, which was gracious, change was Hillary's new message moving on, though the cadre of graying Bill Clinton-era retreads (including the former president himself) flanking her on stage offered a rather incongruous visual to say the least.
It also was not a great night for John Edwards, at the polls or on camera afterwards. Edwards had banked all his hopes on winning Iowa, and it didn't happen. Though he edged out HRC for second place with 30%, little money and a likely tough night coming in New Hampshire do not bode well for his campaign's future. His angry exhortation during his post-caucus speech that change had won the day was true enough, just not his change. We found his remarks strident and off-key. Rather than thank his supporters and family for their hard work and support or congratulate his rivals on a good race, Edwards instead defiantly launched into his over-worn stump speech, complete with the dreaded references to "working in the mills." Note to the Edwards camp: people were sick of the mill schtick 4 years ago; for the love of God, retire it.
A real battle between Clinton and Obama is shaping up in New Hampshire. If Hillary pulls it out, she returns to a strong position in the overall race. If not, she's in trouble. If Obama heads into South Carolina, the first primary state with a significant African American population, with a two-state winning streak, he may become tough to stop.
The fun is just beginning!
Posted by houtopia at 08:52 PM | Comments (0)
January 02, 2008
Bye Bye Chuck
Live by the sword, die by the sword - that's the old saying. Harris County District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal, who often engaged in bare-knuckle political combat from his prosecutor's perch had to fall on his sword last night. Rosenthal abruptly withdrew his name from seeking reelection as District Attorney in 2008, just hours after defiantly claiming he would run again despite unanimous calls for his resignation from local Republican party leadership.
Turns out Chuck, who loved to go after Democratic officeholders, particularly those of the non-Anglo variety, on minor offenses, got caught in a little mess of his own making -- "accidentally" deleting 2,000 emails relevant to a civil rights lawsuit, some of which included romantic pronouncements to his secretary, who is not his wife. Whoops. See, Chuck had already admitted to an affair with the assistant during a previous marriage, but since then he had found Jesus again and was walking the straight and narrow path, albeit with a new wife. What is it about Republicans and this stuff?
What surprised us was how quickly and decisively the local GOP brass cut his legs off after the story broke. By unanimously declaring he should resign and refusing to support him, party leadership put him in a politically untenable position. This swift action suggests to us that Harris County Republicans know they have one helluva fight on their hands to retain control of the county in 2008, and with ethical problems plaguing the party at every turn, were simply unwilling to bear Rosenthal's burden on the countywide ticket. Fitting that Chuck should have to bite the bullet for the same petty crap he pulled on local Democrats. How's it feel?
A very interesting beginning to what promises to be a very interesting year. Next the Iowa caucuses.
Posted by houtopia at 08:59 PM | Comments (4)