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January 04, 2008
A Huck Of An Obamarific Evening
After a seemingly endless pre-primary presidential campaign, finally some actual voting! Iowans officially kicked off the respective nomination processes for the Democratic and Republican parties last night, with some very interesting results.
On the GOP side, the party establishment's worst nightmare came to pass last night as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, he of the Gomer Pyle-like visage, shocked the world and easily won the Republican contest despite being heavily outspent by Mitt Romney, who trailed 9 points behind. Huckabee earned 34% of the votes of the 116,000 or so Republicans who participated, while Romney could muster just 25% after spending upwards of $20 million of his own money. Ouch.
Not a good night for the former Massachusetts governor, who put on a smile to settle for the "silver medal" in the Hawkeye State, but must have been crying gold-plated tears inside. His campaign is in deep trouble. Romney made an early, calculated and expensive bet on investing heavily in early primary states -- a fine strategy as long as you win. But a disappointing loss to a guy with little money who was nowhere in the race just a month or so ago has Mitt staring failure in the face. Now he faces a virtual must-win in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, where a resurgent John McCain is giving him a real run for his money, and where non-conformist candidate Ron Paul will likely have a strong showing as well.
It was a mixed night for McCain,who managed only 4th in Iowa after failing to catch Fred Thompson. Note: how can Grandpa Fred bow out of the race and endorse his buddy the Arizona senator when he finished ahead of McCain in Iowa? Wonder if Thompson was disappointed he's got to continue a bit longer. On the other hand, Romney's misfortune is welcome for McCain, who may yet become the fallback choice for a primary electorate deeply unsatisfied with its options.
It was also a rough night for Rudy Giuliani, who managed just 4% of the Iowa vote, and continues his overall fade in the race. He's gambling on waiting until Florida at the end of the month, a strategy that obviously has heavy risk that the race will be on its way to over by then.
Huckabee is, for the moment, ascendant. His populist message and rock solid religious conservative credentials are clearly striking a chord with the evangelical base of the GOP electorate, who made up roughly 60% of the Iowa Republican caucus last night. But can he last? We are dubious. His total lack of foreign policy experience (and even basic knowledge) make him very high-risk in a general election, as do some frankly backward positions on social issues. We don't think he'll get that far. Look for the GOP establishment to do their best to gut him in the coming days. Stay tuned, it should be fun.
On the Democratic side, Illinois Senator Barack Obama rode massive turnout to a convincing victory over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Obama earned 38% of the delegates, compared to 30% for Edwards and just 29% for Clinton.
Obama soared out of the evening with a dynamite victory speech right on time for the late news, smartly seizing a unifying theme sure to be popular with those New Hampshire independents he so needs next Tuesday. It was for him, on all accounts, an excellent night.
Not as good a night for Senator Clinton, who always faced a tough slog in Iowa, a famously pacifist state where her steadfast support for the Iraq war has not played to rave reviews. Still, she and her team were clearly disappointed. So much of her nomination campaign has been built on inevitablility, that to have that notion shot down so quickly has sent her team scrambling.
In her concession speech, which was gracious, change was Hillary's new message moving on, though the cadre of graying Bill Clinton-era retreads (including the former president himself) flanking her on stage offered a rather incongruous visual to say the least.
It also was not a great night for John Edwards, at the polls or on camera afterwards. Edwards had banked all his hopes on winning Iowa, and it didn't happen. Though he edged out HRC for second place with 30%, little money and a likely tough night coming in New Hampshire do not bode well for his campaign's future. His angry exhortation during his post-caucus speech that change had won the day was true enough, just not his change. We found his remarks strident and off-key. Rather than thank his supporters and family for their hard work and support or congratulate his rivals on a good race, Edwards instead defiantly launched into his over-worn stump speech, complete with the dreaded references to "working in the mills." Note to the Edwards camp: people were sick of the mill schtick 4 years ago; for the love of God, retire it.
A real battle between Clinton and Obama is shaping up in New Hampshire. If Hillary pulls it out, she returns to a strong position in the overall race. If not, she's in trouble. If Obama heads into South Carolina, the first primary state with a significant African American population, with a two-state winning streak, he may become tough to stop.
The fun is just beginning!
Posted by houtopia at January 4, 2008 08:52 PM