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January 30, 2008
Elimination Wednesday
The respective fields for the 2008 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations each were winnowed a bit further today, with John Edwards exiting the Democratic race and Rudy Giuliani dropping out of the Republican contest. Both developments are sure to impact the respective races, though in decidedly different ways.
Giuliani's departure will almost certainly redound to current frontrunner John McCain's benefit. Rudy, who ran the single worst major campaign for the presidency we can remember (wonder if he'll sue his consultants for malpractice), definitely appealed to the more moderate wing of the GOP. With liberal positions on social issues and a less than pure record on hot button issues like immigration, Giuliani attracted supporters who would seem a much more natural fit for the maverick McCain (whom Rudy endorsed), than Mitt Romney, at least the version of himself Romney is selling these days.
Rudy's catastrophic collapse -- recall he was the GOP frontrunner just a few months ago -- will no doubt be studied and presented as an example of how not to run a presidential campaign. Giuliani's team gambled that he could survive losses in several early states, each of which sapped momentum from his campaign, and yet still make a successful stand in Florida. Keep in mind that Rudy spent more money than anyone else in the field in New Hampshire, camped out there for weeks, and even led in the polls there for a while, only to pull up stakes a few weeks before the actual primary and finish in 4th place with 9% of the vote.
Beyond the Giuliani campaign's strategic mistakes, the primary results hint at the issue we always thought threatened Rudy's chances the most: he was a lousy candidate. Giuliani's early support was, in our view, based simply on better name ID than most of his rivals as well as vague positive feelings about his handling of the September 11th tragedy. The problem with Rudy is the more you know, the less you like. And GOP voters in early primary states figured this out too.
On the Democratic side, John Edwards' departure was curious more for its timing than anything else. After a poor showing in Iowa, where he had invested an enormous amount of time and resources, most thought the handwriting was on the wall for Edwards. But on he went, losing in the subsequent contests but picking up delegates along the way. Most thought he would continue on this path at least through the February 5th primary palooza in hopes of accumulating enough delegates to buy himself some leverage with the eventual nominee, leverage that might land him say, an Attorney General appointment in the new administration, should the Democratic nominee win in November.
Edwards abrupt suspension of his campaign makes one wonder. Was it because he's out of money? Maybe, but that's been the case for weeks now. Has his wife Elizabeth's health worsened? We certainly hope not. Or, has he made some kind of a deal with one of the remaining candidates, and if so, who? Now we're talking, folks. We will be very surprised if Edwards does not throw his support behind one of the remaining candidates before February 5th.
If Edwards does endorse, which candidate will it be? That, of course, is unknown to all but a few, but our money's on Obama. For one, Edwards has said in the past that he identified more with Obama than any other candidate in the field. For another, his criticism during the campaign was directed much more heavily at Hillary Clinton than Obama. Finally, the Clinton campaign's negative telephone calls about Edwards just prior to the South Carolina primary likely did little to foster warm fuzzies from Edwards towards HRC.
So, gradually the field of candidates is pared down on both sides. We have essentially a two-man race on the Republican side between McCain and Romney (Huckabee is fading as fast as he rose). and a clear two-person contest for the Democratic nomination. Another fascinating day in a most memorable campaign.
Posted by houtopia at January 30, 2008 10:47 PM
Comments
**Rudy's catastrophic collapse -- recall he was the GOP frontrunner just a few months ago -- will no doubt be studied and presented as an example of how not to run a presidential campaign. Giuliani's team gambled that he could survive losses in several early states, each of which sapped momentum from his campaign, and yet still make a successful stand in Florida. Keep in mind that Rudy spent more money than anyone else in the field in New Hampshire, camped out there for weeks, and even led in the polls there for a while, only to pull up stakes a few weeks before the actual primary and finish in 4th place with 9% of the vote. **
**Beyond the Giuliani campaign's strategic mistakes, the primary results hint at the issue we always thought threatened Rudy's chances the most: he was a lousy candidate. Giuliani's early support was, in our view, based simply on better name ID than most of his rivals as well as vague positive feelings about his handling of the September 11th tragedy. The problem with Rudy is the more you know, the less you like.**
I think the second paragraph actually nails the problem completely. The mayor's main difficulty wasn't his campaign staff. The mayor's difficulty was that he tried to run a campaign based on one day, and had to hope Republican voters didn't look at his positions as well as his bizarre personal life very closely (or at all). This summer, when many Republicans were on vacation and doing things with the family, nobody did. Once it started mattering, his campaign came unraveled.
I just don't know how any campaign staff could have overcome it. He was never going to win Iowa with voters paying attention, and both McCain/Romney had tremendous advantages in New Hampshire among voters paying attention.
When a candidacy depends on voters not paying much attention, can any staff really be blamed for that candidate's poor performance?
Posted by: kevin whited at January 31, 2008 08:31 AM