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January 07, 2008
Living Free Or Dying?
The Granite State of New Hampshire prepares for the nation's first official primary of the 2008 presidentilal election tomorrow, and the fundamentals of the campaigns in both parties hang in the balance.
On the Democratic side, it is simply amazing how the whole race has been turned on its head in just a matter of days. Only a few weeks ago, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton held big leads in New Hampshire polls, not to mention nationwide surveys of likely Democratic primary voters. The race looked tight in Iowa, with Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all bunched together, but otherwise she was in a commanding position. Oh how things have changed.
With Obama's seismic victory last Thursday night, the softness of HRC's early lead in New Hampshire became apparent, as it evaporated and was replaced by a nearly double-digit Obama lead. National polls, where Clinton led by over 20 points just a few weeks ago, have followed suit with a new Gallup survey out today showing the national race tied.
Team Clinton is clearly scrambling as it prepares to lose, perhaps big, in New Hampshire tomorrow night. Hillary even conjured up some tears today for the throng of national media covering her struggles. Hey, we'd be tempted to cry too if our fortunes had reversed as quickly as hers have the last few days.
The question is, if another defeat comes, how does HRC regroup? A steady stream of contests in Nevada, South Carolina & Florida follow New Hampshire, all leading to the 20-state primary palooza on February 5th. A huge consequence of such a front-loaded process (a process which, incidentally, must have made the then "inevitable" Clinton campaign salivate when it was put in place), is that momentum from one contest to another becomes an even more powerful driver of the ultimate result. Yes, the very monster Team Clinton coveted in the beginning may yet eat it alive.
Can HRC attack Obama? Of course, and she likely will, though such tactics are risky, and will assuredly further drive up her already high negatives. Can she find a new message? Much more difficult, in our judgment. In fact, one criticism of her Iowa campaign was its inability to settle on a core message and theme. "In it to win it", "The Hillary I know", "The change we need"...ugh. Such is the peril for a candidate about whom the public already has fully developed opinions. What can she say? Hillary Clinton, more than any candidate in either party, is a defined quantity in this race. Her team has always argued, not unreasonably, that being a known quantity made her the most electable in November. Her negatives are what they are, but won't go any higher, right? Yes, but by the same logic HRC's numbers are as much of a ceiling as they are a floor.
Obama, by contrast, is showing his tremendous upside. What goes up can certainly come down, but it's difficult at this point seeing how Hillary is the one who takes him down. Such is her task if she is to salvage the nomination. Stay tuned.
As for the Republicans, a far more complicated situation exists. Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, will clearly not prevail in New Hampshire tomorrow night. He is running a distant third in the Granite State, which neither embraces his evangelicalism nor trusts him on taxes. Still, with South Carolina looming, Huckabee, who has largely ignored New Hampshire, can afford a third, or even fourth-place finish there.
For former Masschusetts governor Mitt Romney, a victory in neighboring New Hampshire is desperately needed, but may prove elusive. While he trails John McCain by only a few points in current polls there, trail he does. A second consecutive loss for Romney could prove disastrous for him, as the race moves on to states where he lacks the organization he bought in IA and NH. Again, Mitt's strategy of investing big in the early states only works if you win them. A loss tomorrow and he's on life support.
As for McCain, he didn't do very well himself in Iowa, slipping to 4th place behind the catatonic Fred Thompson, but did benefit from Romney's weak finish there. McCain isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but a New Hampshire win tomorrow and he's back in the game. A Lazarus-like return for McCain would be more a signal of the GOP field's weakness than his strength. Should the Republican primary electorate ultimately nominate him, it will tell us they've gotten wise, as we have always believed him to be their strongest general election candidate.
Grandpa Fred continues to drift along, not doing well enough to pique any interest, but not doing quite badly enough to drop out? Again, after Iowa how could he drop out and endorse his buddy McCain after finishing ahead of him? Once again folks, a group of world-beaters this GOP group ain't.
Then there's Rudy. Mr. 9-11 conitnues to sink like a stone in the polls and tout his late state strategy. He's becoming so irrelevant these days, you almost feel like he needs another scandal to get his name back in the news. We'll see if Giuliani's banking on Florida at the end of the month will pay off for him, but we're betting that if he continues to finish out of the money in these early states, then out of the money he will stay. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Finally, Ron Paul. Expect Paul to do better than people think tomorrow night. While he polls a distant 4th along with Rudy, Paul likely draws a bunch of marginal voters who don't show up much in usual suspect primary voter polls. While Paul's strength is unique in a libertarian-like state such as New Hampshire and isn't likely to translate much elsewhere, he can and may well muck up the race even further for the rest of them tomorrow. We're betting he at least battles Huckabee for a clear third-place finish in New Hampshire, and could even make Mitt Romney sweat for second fiddle.
A truly fascinating campaign gets more and more interesting.
Posted by houtopia at January 7, 2008 10:01 PM
Comments
Kucinich beat Thompson!!
Posted by: Charlie at January 8, 2008 11:40 PM