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January 21, 2008
Texas Gets Some Stroke
Back last year, when the Texas Legislature was in session, there was a good deal of chatter among political insiders about whether or not Texas would attempt to change its March 4th primary date (for both major parties), and thus become a player in the respective Republican and Democratic nomination contests. The Lege and Governor Rick Perry, perhaps thinking of his pal Rudy Giuliani, whom he later endorsed and who's liberal positions on social issues (not to mention checkered personal past) would not likely sit well with Texas GOP voters, decided against introducing legislation to move the date. Most of us then, and reasonably so, kissed Texas' chance of mattering goodbye.
After all, it is not as if there will be a meaningful presidential election contest here. Whatever political changes may be occurring in the state, and there are many, Texas will almost certainly give its 34 electoral college votes to the Republican presidential nominee in 2008. The primary was our only shot to avoid remaining irrelevant in the presidential sweepstakes, and even that opportunity seemed lost. Not so fast.
An unlikely turn of events may yet give Texas the national political stroke it yearns for -- in both parties. On the Republican side, a lackluster field of candidates has so far produced split results in early states, with John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee all claiming victories. Each of these three GOP candidates are pursuing wins in the primary palooza taking place in over 20 states on February 5th, as is Giuliani, who is yet to win a contest but is banking on Florida on January 29th to get him back in the race.
If the Republican field splits the spoils on February 5th, then March 4th, which includes the Texas and Ohio primaries, becomes very important indeed.
Mike Huckabee was the first Republican candidate to acknowledge this very real possibility in today's Houston Chronicle. Huckabee told attendees at a Navasota fundraiser hosted by Chuck Norris (cue Conan's Walker Texas Ranger lever!), that February 5th would not decide the race and that Texas might have to put him over the top. Perhaps the Huckster should consider dispatching Norris on a ninja-style mission to winnow the field.
Stay tuned, commercials to see who can out right-wing the other guy are coming to a Texas market near you.
Initially even less probable than a Texas GOP presidential contest, but now a growing possibility, is a Democratic showdown in the Lone Star State. The dynamics of the race on the Democratic side are, of course, much different than for the Republicans. Most importantly, we are now down to a two-candidate contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. In today's NY Times, Julie Bosman in fact posed the rather pathetic question of why John Edwards remains in the race.)
The two-person contest on February 5th makes a meaningful March 4th Texas Democratic presidential race less of a possibility, simply due to the probability of one of the contenders mopping up on Feb. 5th being much higher with only two real candidates than with a multi-candidate field. Given the closely contested split results so far, however, the likelihood of either Clinton or Obama sewing up the race in February seems to be shrinking, not growing. There is a good possibility the two Democrats will too divide up the delegates on Feb. 5th, which would undoubtedly set up a very important Texas contest.
The effects on both the Republican and Democratic primaries in Texas would be substantial. Turnout would balloon, which makes results much more difficult to predict, not only for the presidential contests, but for the myriad local races occurring across the state. It is, needless to say, a nervous if also exciting time for we political hacks across the Lone Star State. Like we said, stay tuned!
Posted by houtopia at January 21, 2008 03:19 PM