« January 2008 | Main | March 2008 »
February 25, 2008
Polls, Polls, Polls
Here we are, a week until the Texas primary, and a handful of new polls out show a statistical dead heat in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Here's what we've got:
CNN/Opinion Research -- Obama 50% - Clinton 46%
Rasmussen -- Clinton 46% - Obama 45%
American Research Group -- Obama 50% - Clinton 42%
Survey USA -- Obama 49% - Clinton 45%
Clearly some variation by poll, but unquestionably a close race. Why the variation? Well, just random sampling error accounts for some of it, but more important is what likely voter model the poll used. Meaning, were those polled reliable Democrats only, or were there Independents and others in the sample, and if so, how many?
These are very important questions, because as early voting across the state indicates, non-traditional voters are participating in the Democratic Primary in droves. It is this much larger than normal electorate that signals to us an Obama victory in Texas next week. Quite simply, Obama is attracting enormous numbers of folks who have rarely, if ever, voted in a Democratic Primary, not to mention large numbers of people who have never voted at all.
Harris County, for example, will likely vote between 125,000 and 150,000 Democrats just during early vote. This probably means a total primary vote well north of 200,000 and possibly upwards of 300,000 -- record-breaking stuff. In the state as a whole, we very likely are looking at over 2 million votes in the Democratic Primary.
More on some Harris County specifics tomorrow, but suffice to say, it is one hell of a year shaping up.
Posted by houtopia at 10:11 PM | Comments (0)
February 21, 2008
Numbers!
One of our favorite topics, and we certainly have some fascinating ones coming in from early voting in Harris County and across Texas.
In just the first two days of early voting in Harris County, 23,947 voters had cast ballots, compared with 3,092 in 2004. Of this year's eager beavers so far, 18,146 voted in the Democratic primary, compared with 5,801 in the GOP contest -- a simply stunning gap in a county that Republicans have controlled for the last dozen or more years. At this rate, Democratic Primary turnout could exceed 300,000 -- gulp. Remember folks, just 79,000 voted in the 2004 D Primary.
The pattern is not just confined to Harris County either. Austin consultant Ed Martin has circulated some staggering numbers about the state's 15 most populous counties. In those counties, Democratic turnout through two days of early vote was 118,756 compared to 38,251 Republicans. Wow.
Perhaps more fascinating was Martin's finding that of the Democratic voters in the five largest counties in Texas, about 40% had no recent history of voting in Democratic primaries, and about 20% had no history of voting, period.
Something very interesting is happening right now. Not quite sure what, but it most certainly is interesting.
Posted by houtopia at 05:53 PM | Comments (3)
February 18, 2008
Here We Go!
Well folks, the time has come here in Texas. Early voting begins tomorrow (folks in Harris County can find out when and where to early vote here), and with the electric state of the Democratic presidential contest, it figures to be a primary like no other here. There are about 12.6 million registered voters in Texas, and some are predicting Democratic primary participation as high as 2 million, which would surpass the previous record of 1.8 million set in 1988.
Of that 2 million, 250,000 or so could come from Harris County. (Greg thinks that estimate is on the high side, and has some interesting posts debating the subject -- here , here and here.) Whatever the total ends up being on March 4th, there is no question this county this whole area is in a full-on political frenzy.
Suddenly, Houston is becoming a celebrity hangout. Over the weekend, George Lopez and America Farrar were in town to campaign respectively for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and tonight we enjoyed an opportunity to hear Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (a Hillary supporter) address the Houston Democratic Forum on her behalf. We can only guess that once the Wisconsin and Hawaii contests are over with tomorrow, Texas will become ground zero, along with Ohio, for intensive, high profile campaigning, not to mention national media coverage.
Indeed, for a few weeks, Texas will matter in the national political drama, before we are once again relegated to our role as ATM machine. Hey, we'll enjoy it while it lasts, right?
As we previously mentioned, the likely explosion in Democratic primary turnout here will dramatically impact down ballot local races, though no one quite knows how. Certainly, many of these new primary voters will pass on voting down ballot, but many will go ahead and vote, perhaps with less information about these races than more habitual participants.
We have a few suggestions for local contests -- here, here and here. Happy voting everyone, and hang on to your hats!
Posted by houtopia at 10:12 PM | Comments (2)
February 12, 2008
Looking To November?
Tonight was big for both John McCain and Barack Obama, as each man swept the Potomac primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C.
McCain overcame a shaky beginning to the evening. As early returns came in from Virginia, he trailed Mike Huckabee, only fueling further media speculation about a repudiation of the Arizona senator by conservatives in the GOP. McCain eventually pulled away in Virginia, and moved out to big leads in Maryland and D.C. as well. His team must be breathing a big sigh of relief tonight. After a lousy weekend result, including controversy surrounding his narrow win in Washington state, the last thing McCain needed was more weakening of his already shaky frontrunner brand. Still, there is a notable lack of enthusiasm among Republicans for their presumptive nominee which does not bode well for November -- though things obviously can change very quickly in politics.
It was another boffo night for Barack Obama. He won today's three contests in blowouts, running his current winning streak to eight states, and continuing to crescendo toward what could quite a finale on March 4th. Simply put, Obama is building momentum that is going to be very difficult to stop. One could almost sense this watching Hillary Clinton speak at a rally in El Paso tonight. (It is telling that she was nowhere near today's primary states, nor the two upcoming February contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii.) The smile was there, as was the normal substance in her remarks, but one could detect deflation in her mood, and given what's transpired over the last few weeks, who could blame her?
By contrast, Obama rocked the house at a packed arena in Madison, Wisconsin. And we began to see the Illinois senator perhaps move beyond the primary and turn his attention toward his likely general election opponent. He took some direct, if respectful shots at John McCain, in the midst of his otherwise lofty remarks. McCain, almost serene in demeanor and surrounded by fellow aging white guys (note to the McCain team -- not a great visual), offered an eloquent, if sing-songy oration about conservative principles and the duty to serve the greater good, and landed his own veiled jabs at Obama about the folly of youth.
Tonight we glimpsed the contrast the two likely nominees will set for the American public this fall. Obama -- tall, vital, unconventional and inspirational. McCain -- wizened, wise, principled and solid. It will be fascinating to watch how that contrast is drawn and received by voters. What was also evident in both men, and something that has been sorely lacking in our recent political discourse -- class. Fleeting though it may be, as the nasty attacks are sure to emerge, it was refreshing to see these two aspirants for the most powerful position in the world acquit themselves as statesmen. We sincerely hope it continues; God knows the country is ready for it.
Finally, if McCain and Obama are to be our two major party nominees (by no means yet a certainty), it is to us a clear signal that the country is ready to move on from the poisonous national political environment of the last 15+ years. Here are two candidates who in different ways defy convention. McCain, though a rock-ribbed conservative, has never been afraid to assert his independence. And Obama... well, as he says, he shouldn't even be here!
We can only continue to shake our head and say it again -- what a year.
Posted by houtopia at 09:35 PM | Comments (1)
February 11, 2008
Beginning Of Handwriting On The Wall?
Tuesday's NY Times is out with a big story on the Democratic race for president. Apparently, the Clinton team is now acknowledging that comfortable March 4th wins in Ohio and Texas are a must for her candidacy to remain viable. According to the piece, this acceptance was made clear on a conference call today designed to buoy key donors and supporters, a call where Senator Clinton's mood was characterized as "tired and a little down."
These are tough days for the Clinton campaign. Since a split result in last Tuesday's mega-primary, Obama has run the table, and by large margins. To boot, potential Clinton victories in the remaining February primary and caucus states look few and far between. Finally, as the article points out, Obama is outraising them 2 to 1, though her money woes seem to have stabilized.
While Ohio and Texas offer Clinton good opportunities to win, there is great risk that if she waits until then to really fight, while Obama rolls up victories leading up to March 4th, it may erode her current advantages in those states (think Giuliani). Not to mention that Obama's decided financial advantage allows him to begin advertising early -- very important for a candidate far less known to rank and file voters than Hillary Clinton -- while she will have to go up on television later.
As we wrote last night, Clinton needs a win somewhere -- Virginia? Wisconsin? -- before March 4th to stop Obama's momentum. Otherwise, even if she wins Ohio and Texas, it won't likely be by enough delegate-wise to save her. The problem, as the article notes, is not just with voters. Super delegates aligned with Clinton are already beginning to feel pressure to "go with the flow." If he keeps winning, that pressure will only increase, and she could see an exodus of this critically important group over to Obama.
If Hillary Clinton is to become the 2008 Democratic nominee, the coming days will write the story of her success. Otherwise, Barack Obama will wear the crown in Denver later this year.
Posted by houtopia at 09:38 PM | Comments (1)
February 10, 2008
Quite A Weekend
As the weekend draws to a close, we take a moment to examine important goings-on, both national and local.
The big national weekend winner was Barack Obama. Four states -- Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska and Washington, as well as the Virgin Islands were up for grabs in the Democratic nomination contest Saturday and Sunday, and Obama won them all by large margins. All but Louisiana were caucus states, where Obama's grassroots organizing had to date paid enormous dividends, and these four states followed suit. Obama won even in Maine, a state with virtually no minority population and a Democratic electorate dominated by working class voters, who have been Hillary Clinton's bread and butter. Yet Obama's margin was nearly 20 points there. Indeed, more surprising than his victories this weekend were the margins -- ranging from 18 to 37 points. Obama is rapidly closing the delegate gap, and with the possibility of a 3-0 sweep in Tuesday's Chesapeake primaries (Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC), he is beginning to build some serious mo.
On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee also had a good weekend. He began on Saturday by blowing out John McCain in the Kansas caucus, and followed up with a narrow victory in Louisiana. He is also locked in a tight race in Washington State, where he very narrowly trails McCain and where the powers that be appear to have stopped counting with some 13% of the vote still out. So Huck got two wins for sure, with some possibility of a third, and clearly demonstrated there is an appetite among Republican voters for someone other than the presumptive nominee.
For John McCain and Hillary Clinton, this was a weekend to forget. McCain lost two of three contests, and even in the one where he leads, he managed barely a quarter of the GOP vote. For the guy who supposedly has the Republican race sewn up, one could hardly call this enthusiastic support. McCain has an enormous delegate lead and likely cannot be caught, but limping across the nomination finish line won't likely build momentum for what promises to be a tough general election campaign.
Hillary also had a tough go of it, going 0 for 5, and ended the weekend by shaking up her campaign team. Her campaign is clearly on its heels at the moment, and in our judgment cannot afford to let Obama's momentum build through the rest of this month and count on March 4th (Ohio and Texas) to save her. Clinton needs an unexpected win somewhere in February, or this race may well get away from her. A piece of good news for her camp was the $10 million she's reported raising so far in February, money Clinton desperately needs to compete this month. But don't write Hillary's political epitaph just yet. The Clintons' are very good at winning elections, and this thing has a long way to go.
Locally in Harris County, the presidential dead heat on the Democratic side is generating tremendous excitement among both longtime activists and many newcomers to the political process. Several hundred people apparently attended the Obama campaign's Houston headquarters opening yesterday, and the Clinton folks had their own event this afternoon. There was also a well-attended countywide campaign kickoff Saturday afternoon, headlined by former Iowa governor and presidential candidate Tom Vilsack.
Turnout in the March 4th Democratic primary is expected to explode, from about 80,000 in the 2004 primary to perhaps three times that this year. Such a dramatic increase in voter participation will have profound consequences, not only for the two respective presidential campaigns, but for those down ballot Democrats in contested primary races. Races for the state legislature, county administrative offices, and judicial seats will be affected, but it is unclear exactly how. For example, in 2004, only about 50,000 of the 80,000 Democratic primary voters went down ballot to vote in other contests. If 240,000 people show up, how many of them go down ballot? How informed will they be? Who are they and how do candidates reach them? These are the questions keeping a number of local candidates and their teams up at night, because no one is sure of the answers.
The lack of a Republican presidential race (unless Huckabee really catches fire) in Texas on March 4th will no doubt also impact local GOP primary races. In particular, we think it spells bad news for incumbent County Judge Ed Emmett. No more Giuliani, Romney, Fred Thompson... this means low interest among voters who are not normal Republican primary participants but who may have been drawn in by a meaningful presidential contest. Emmett, a moderate, needed those voters. Instead, he's likely to get a primary dominated by the usual suspects -- right-wingers who thought Emmett never should have gotten the job in the first place. No wonder polling shows him down double digits. Also interesting will be how the GOP primary for DA is impacted.
Voting begins here a week from Tuesday. On we go!
Posted by houtopia at 08:45 PM | Comments (0)
February 06, 2008
The Poop On Super Tuesday
The Super Tuesday primary palooza is finally in the books, and what was long predicted came to pass. One major party contest has effectively been decided, while the other remains very much up for grabs. That's right folks, the conventional wisdom held -- as long as you don't mind flip-flopping the parties in the results, that is.
John McCain more or less sealed the Republican nomination last night, despite only grudging support from GOP voters. For example, could he really have felt that good about winning his home state of Arizona with less than 50% of the vote? Still, he captured more states than his rivals, including the huge winner-take-all delegate prizes California and New York, and opened up a delegate lead that will be very difficult to overcome.
It was a terrible day for Mitt Romney. His campaign might have had an inkling that things would not go well yesterday when he was ganged up on in West Viriginia. Apparently, at the Republican convention there early Tuesday, the first ballot gave Romney the lead. Folks broke for lunch, and afterward, miraculously, all the other candidates' supporters immediately switched their allegiance to Mike Huckabee, giving him a narrow 50-47 victory over Romney. Ouch.
Things only continued downhill from there for Romney, as he managed to win just Massachusetts and Utah -- both states where he had lived -- as well as a handful of other western states. He failed in his attempt to claim California and emerge as the lone conservative alternative to McCain. Indeed, by the end of the night, and despite Romney's speech to supporters assuring them of his intention to stay in the race for the long haul, media speculation about his ending the campaign was running rampant. Our take -- unless Mitt considers throwing money down a hole a source of entertainment, we recommend he hang up his spurs; he can't win.
Meanwhile, Huckabee played the role of Romney spoiler to a tee on Tuesday. In addition to his West Virginia victory, the Huckster ran the table in the southern primary contests in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee, splitting the anti-McCain vote and thus aiding his Arizona rival. Huckabee has limited appeal outside religious conservatives, and for this reason is not any real threat to actually win the nomination. But he has killed Romney and continues to win states along the way, no doubt positioning himself to lobby for the vice-presidential slot on the ticket. One can certainly debate the opportunities and risks of having Huckabee on the GOP ticket in November, but he pretty clearly wants it.
On the Democratic side, yesterday's results tightened the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama even further and set up a long, drawn-out fight for the nomination - a dynamic we think benefits Obama.
Keep in mind, the Clinton camp long believed that February 5th was the day they would deliver a knockout punch to Obama and wrap up the nomination. Think about it, team Clinton envisoned a mega-state primary day where she could take advantage of much higher name ID, key Democratic endorsements and a decided fundraising advantage to blow Obama out of the water. The Obama campaign just didn't cooperate.
On the money side, Obama stayed nearly even with Clinton through the end of 2007, and badly outraised her in January 2008 -- $32 million (a single-month record for a presidential candidate) to $12 million. His campaign also (brilliantly, in our judgment) fanned out and organized the numerous caucus states contested on Feb. 5th -- states like Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota and North Dakota, where grassroots organizing really pays off -- and won them all decisively, thus taking the lion's share of those delegates. And Obama quickly made up ground in all February 5th states the more he campaigned -- not enough to win the day, but enough to battle Clinton to a draw. For a number of reasons, we think he is in the stronger position going foward.
Reason #1 -- Money. In addition to the January fundraising disparity, word came Wednesday that Clinton had loaned the campaign $5 million to keep things going and that some senior staff is now going without pay. Meanwhile, as of late Wednesday, Obama has apparently raised another $6.3 million -- since the polls closed last night -- a simply stunning development and testament to the advantage of having a huge small donor base that can keep on giving, as opposed to a smaller number of max-out contributors, as Clinton has.
Reason #2 -- Momentum. No matter how the Clinton camp tries to spin it, Tuesday was not a success for them and Obama is gaining fast. One need look no further than the results out of California, which Clinton won by some 400,000 votes. Nearly all her margin, however, came from the early vote. On election day, she and Obama ran about even. Battling her to a draw on Super Tuesday was a boon for his campaign, and will only raise his profile further with voters who are just getting to know him.
Reason #3 -- A Favorable Schedule. The next few weeks, with primaries and caucuses in states like Maryland, Virginia, Washignton D.C., Hawaii, Washington State, and Wisconsin, offer Obama big opportunities to rack up victories, and more importantly, delegates. Furthermore, by having fewer states contested at once, the schedule going forward allows Obama to campaign more intensively in those places, and thus far, the better voters get to know him, the more they like him.
None of this is to say Obama has the nomination wrapped up -- far from it. Hillary Clinton is a tough and savvy campaigner who currently has a lead in the delgate count, albeit a small one. The fluidity the race has shown to date could very easily swing things back to her advantage very fast. People are already beginning to talk about this nomination fight going all the way to the convention in Denver this summer. It is a real possibility.
We are witnessing two very different contests in the two major parties. On the Republican side, a pretty dispirited electorate is settling for a solid guy, but not one who generates much, if any excitement among the party's base. On the Democratic side, two outstanding candidates with campaigns performing at an extremely high level, are locked in a lengthy, heavyweight slugfest, now in the middle rounds. No doubt, each fighter will answer the bell in the coming rounds, and we'll likely have to go to the scorecard for a decision. We'd buy pay-per-view for this one.
Posted by houtopia at 10:39 PM | Comments (2)
February 04, 2008
Anything Goes
How does the old Cole Porter song go? "And black's white today, and day's night today..."
For months, the conventional wisdom (which we whole-heartedly bought into, by the way) concerning the 2008 presidential primary was that the Democratic nomination would be decided pretty early in the process, while a weak, scrambled Republican field likely meant a lengthy contest to become the GOP standard-bearer. Anything goes, folks.
That's right, in Bizarro World fashion, it increasingly looks as if tomorrow night's Super Tuesday will decide the Republican nomination but prolong the contest on the Democratic side. John McCain, on the heels of several early primary victories, has opened up a large lead in the polls over Mitt Romney, and can effectively put the Republican race away tomorrow, unless Mike Huckabee picks off enough southern states to keep it alive. At the risk of tooting our own horn, we remind readers that, back in November, we hinted that a Lazarus-like comeback for McCain was not out of the question. Hey, lucky guess, right?
Meanwhile, the Democratic race looks as if it will go on after the February 5th primary palooza. Hillary Clinton still enjoys leads in the polls in a majority of the states up for grabs tomorrow, but Barack Obama is rapidly closing the gap. We expect Senator Clinton will win the day tomorrow, but not in the decisive way her team was predicting just a few weeks ago.
When the front-loaded primary schedule was established, months ago, we figured it heavily favored Clinton. As a very well known, popular figure in the Democratic Party (with an even more popular spouse), the game seemed rigged for her to wrap up the nomination on February 5. Her team proceeded as such, pursuing a shock & awe strategy, strong-arming folks for endorsements and exclusive financial support. But it didn't quite work, and now we have a real fight for the nomination - a welcome development in our eyes.
Will McCain wrap it up tomorrow night? Will Hillary gain a commanding lead, or will Barack stage some degree of an upset? Watch that delegate count!
Posted by houtopia at 09:42 PM | Comments (0)