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February 04, 2008
Anything Goes
How does the old Cole Porter song go? "And black's white today, and day's night today..."
For months, the conventional wisdom (which we whole-heartedly bought into, by the way) concerning the 2008 presidential primary was that the Democratic nomination would be decided pretty early in the process, while a weak, scrambled Republican field likely meant a lengthy contest to become the GOP standard-bearer. Anything goes, folks.
That's right, in Bizarro World fashion, it increasingly looks as if tomorrow night's Super Tuesday will decide the Republican nomination but prolong the contest on the Democratic side. John McCain, on the heels of several early primary victories, has opened up a large lead in the polls over Mitt Romney, and can effectively put the Republican race away tomorrow, unless Mike Huckabee picks off enough southern states to keep it alive. At the risk of tooting our own horn, we remind readers that, back in November, we hinted that a Lazarus-like comeback for McCain was not out of the question. Hey, lucky guess, right?
Meanwhile, the Democratic race looks as if it will go on after the February 5th primary palooza. Hillary Clinton still enjoys leads in the polls in a majority of the states up for grabs tomorrow, but Barack Obama is rapidly closing the gap. We expect Senator Clinton will win the day tomorrow, but not in the decisive way her team was predicting just a few weeks ago.
When the front-loaded primary schedule was established, months ago, we figured it heavily favored Clinton. As a very well known, popular figure in the Democratic Party (with an even more popular spouse), the game seemed rigged for her to wrap up the nomination on February 5. Her team proceeded as such, pursuing a shock & awe strategy, strong-arming folks for endorsements and exclusive financial support. But it didn't quite work, and now we have a real fight for the nomination - a welcome development in our eyes.
Will McCain wrap it up tomorrow night? Will Hillary gain a commanding lead, or will Barack stage some degree of an upset? Watch that delegate count!
Posted by houtopia at February 4, 2008 09:42 PM