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February 11, 2008
Beginning Of Handwriting On The Wall?
Tuesday's NY Times is out with a big story on the Democratic race for president. Apparently, the Clinton team is now acknowledging that comfortable March 4th wins in Ohio and Texas are a must for her candidacy to remain viable. According to the piece, this acceptance was made clear on a conference call today designed to buoy key donors and supporters, a call where Senator Clinton's mood was characterized as "tired and a little down."
These are tough days for the Clinton campaign. Since a split result in last Tuesday's mega-primary, Obama has run the table, and by large margins. To boot, potential Clinton victories in the remaining February primary and caucus states look few and far between. Finally, as the article points out, Obama is outraising them 2 to 1, though her money woes seem to have stabilized.
While Ohio and Texas offer Clinton good opportunities to win, there is great risk that if she waits until then to really fight, while Obama rolls up victories leading up to March 4th, it may erode her current advantages in those states (think Giuliani). Not to mention that Obama's decided financial advantage allows him to begin advertising early -- very important for a candidate far less known to rank and file voters than Hillary Clinton -- while she will have to go up on television later.
As we wrote last night, Clinton needs a win somewhere -- Virginia? Wisconsin? -- before March 4th to stop Obama's momentum. Otherwise, even if she wins Ohio and Texas, it won't likely be by enough delegate-wise to save her. The problem, as the article notes, is not just with voters. Super delegates aligned with Clinton are already beginning to feel pressure to "go with the flow." If he keeps winning, that pressure will only increase, and she could see an exodus of this critically important group over to Obama.
If Hillary Clinton is to become the 2008 Democratic nominee, the coming days will write the story of her success. Otherwise, Barack Obama will wear the crown in Denver later this year.
Posted by houtopia at February 11, 2008 09:38 PM
Comments
I have noticed that since the Iowa caucuses, the strategy of nuance and divisive politics keeps raising it’s ugly head, again and again. I’m actually old enough to remember the politics of the 1990’s, and it’s devastating effects on the Democratic Party. The slash and burn Clinton’s we knew well in the 1990’s, have returned “back from the future,” with a vengeance. Every democrat that remembers this political re-run, has to wonder whether the Clinton’s are trying to re-destroy the new Democratic Party in 2008. The political team that now claims to “embody” “change,” is seemingly very comfortable using their same old strategy of divisive politics to reclaim their throne in the White House. Anyone truly interested in the future of our Democratic Party has to be very alarmed. The Clinton’s political strategy of slash and burn will serve them well now, but the eventual cost to the Democratic Party will be devastating once again. The same strategy of half-truths, nuance, right-winged conspiracies, and divisive ideological battles, that won the Clinton’s the presidency in 1992, and a subsequent New York Senate seat, will cost our national and local party seats in the 2008, upcoming elections. The last time we allowed the Clintons to lead our party, we suffered historical political losses, never seen before in American politics. The net result of the divisive, self-serving Clinton political machine of the 90’s, shrank the Democratic Party base, and cost the party control of the United States Senate and the House of Representatives. The sad result of the Clinton politics, and continuous scandals, eventually empowered George W. Bush past the setting incumbent vice president, Al Gore in the 2000 presidential elections. As a result the republicans have took firm control of the Supreme Court, appointing 7 of the last 9 justices, currently serving. Looking at the complete picture, I don’t believe that the Clinton administration or politics have lead, served, or is currently serving our Democratic Party well in any capacity. We have to understand, that as a democrats, we have yet to fully recover from the political damage of the Clinton administration scandals, investigations, and politics during the “1990’s. As a party, if we don’t learn from our past mistakes, and demand a new leadership, we will surely suffer the same devastating consequences in 2008 and beyond. We have to move forward and turn the page of division, if we are going to expand our electorate and chart a stronger, more inclusive future for the Democratic Party.
H. Smith
Posted by: H. Thomas Smith at February 12, 2008 06:17 PM