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February 21, 2008
Numbers!
One of our favorite topics, and we certainly have some fascinating ones coming in from early voting in Harris County and across Texas.
In just the first two days of early voting in Harris County, 23,947 voters had cast ballots, compared with 3,092 in 2004. Of this year's eager beavers so far, 18,146 voted in the Democratic primary, compared with 5,801 in the GOP contest -- a simply stunning gap in a county that Republicans have controlled for the last dozen or more years. At this rate, Democratic Primary turnout could exceed 300,000 -- gulp. Remember folks, just 79,000 voted in the 2004 D Primary.
The pattern is not just confined to Harris County either. Austin consultant Ed Martin has circulated some staggering numbers about the state's 15 most populous counties. In those counties, Democratic turnout through two days of early vote was 118,756 compared to 38,251 Republicans. Wow.
Perhaps more fascinating was Martin's finding that of the Democratic voters in the five largest counties in Texas, about 40% had no recent history of voting in Democratic primaries, and about 20% had no history of voting, period.
Something very interesting is happening right now. Not quite sure what, but it most certainly is interesting.
Posted by houtopia at February 21, 2008 05:53 PM
Comments
The race for the Republican Presidential nomination has pretty much already been decided, so that is the likely reason for the lower early voting turnout on that side. I think you should wait until after November 4 before predicitng that Texas has turned into a blue state.
Posted by: ChrisR at February 22, 2008 01:46 PM
I don't see anywhere that I've predicted Texas will turn into a blue state. It may happen at some point, but it is extremely unlikely in 2008. George W. Bush won the 2004 contest here by over 20 points.
The enormous Democratic primary turnout may, however, have major implications for Harris County, which Republicans control by only a narrow margin.
Where November is concerned, my operative phrase remains, as always, we'll see.
Posted by: houtopia at February 22, 2008 09:47 PM
A great many of us Republicans are voting in the Demo primaries. Many are voting for Obama, fearing the worst if Hilary wins, i.e. a Hilary/Obama ticket. Obama will be much easier to defeat than a Hilary/Obama ticket as a great many of the Demo's won't vote for Obama in November.
Posted by: Tony at February 24, 2008 07:46 AM