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February 25, 2008
Polls, Polls, Polls
Here we are, a week until the Texas primary, and a handful of new polls out show a statistical dead heat in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Here's what we've got:
CNN/Opinion Research -- Obama 50% - Clinton 46%
Rasmussen -- Clinton 46% - Obama 45%
American Research Group -- Obama 50% - Clinton 42%
Survey USA -- Obama 49% - Clinton 45%
Clearly some variation by poll, but unquestionably a close race. Why the variation? Well, just random sampling error accounts for some of it, but more important is what likely voter model the poll used. Meaning, were those polled reliable Democrats only, or were there Independents and others in the sample, and if so, how many?
These are very important questions, because as early voting across the state indicates, non-traditional voters are participating in the Democratic Primary in droves. It is this much larger than normal electorate that signals to us an Obama victory in Texas next week. Quite simply, Obama is attracting enormous numbers of folks who have rarely, if ever, voted in a Democratic Primary, not to mention large numbers of people who have never voted at all.
Harris County, for example, will likely vote between 125,000 and 150,000 Democrats just during early vote. This probably means a total primary vote well north of 200,000 and possibly upwards of 300,000 -- record-breaking stuff. In the state as a whole, we very likely are looking at over 2 million votes in the Democratic Primary.
More on some Harris County specifics tomorrow, but suffice to say, it is one hell of a year shaping up.
Posted by houtopia at February 25, 2008 10:11 PM