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February 10, 2008
Quite A Weekend
As the weekend draws to a close, we take a moment to examine important goings-on, both national and local.
The big national weekend winner was Barack Obama. Four states -- Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska and Washington, as well as the Virgin Islands were up for grabs in the Democratic nomination contest Saturday and Sunday, and Obama won them all by large margins. All but Louisiana were caucus states, where Obama's grassroots organizing had to date paid enormous dividends, and these four states followed suit. Obama won even in Maine, a state with virtually no minority population and a Democratic electorate dominated by working class voters, who have been Hillary Clinton's bread and butter. Yet Obama's margin was nearly 20 points there. Indeed, more surprising than his victories this weekend were the margins -- ranging from 18 to 37 points. Obama is rapidly closing the delegate gap, and with the possibility of a 3-0 sweep in Tuesday's Chesapeake primaries (Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC), he is beginning to build some serious mo.
On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee also had a good weekend. He began on Saturday by blowing out John McCain in the Kansas caucus, and followed up with a narrow victory in Louisiana. He is also locked in a tight race in Washington State, where he very narrowly trails McCain and where the powers that be appear to have stopped counting with some 13% of the vote still out. So Huck got two wins for sure, with some possibility of a third, and clearly demonstrated there is an appetite among Republican voters for someone other than the presumptive nominee.
For John McCain and Hillary Clinton, this was a weekend to forget. McCain lost two of three contests, and even in the one where he leads, he managed barely a quarter of the GOP vote. For the guy who supposedly has the Republican race sewn up, one could hardly call this enthusiastic support. McCain has an enormous delegate lead and likely cannot be caught, but limping across the nomination finish line won't likely build momentum for what promises to be a tough general election campaign.
Hillary also had a tough go of it, going 0 for 5, and ended the weekend by shaking up her campaign team. Her campaign is clearly on its heels at the moment, and in our judgment cannot afford to let Obama's momentum build through the rest of this month and count on March 4th (Ohio and Texas) to save her. Clinton needs an unexpected win somewhere in February, or this race may well get away from her. A piece of good news for her camp was the $10 million she's reported raising so far in February, money Clinton desperately needs to compete this month. But don't write Hillary's political epitaph just yet. The Clintons' are very good at winning elections, and this thing has a long way to go.
Locally in Harris County, the presidential dead heat on the Democratic side is generating tremendous excitement among both longtime activists and many newcomers to the political process. Several hundred people apparently attended the Obama campaign's Houston headquarters opening yesterday, and the Clinton folks had their own event this afternoon. There was also a well-attended countywide campaign kickoff Saturday afternoon, headlined by former Iowa governor and presidential candidate Tom Vilsack.
Turnout in the March 4th Democratic primary is expected to explode, from about 80,000 in the 2004 primary to perhaps three times that this year. Such a dramatic increase in voter participation will have profound consequences, not only for the two respective presidential campaigns, but for those down ballot Democrats in contested primary races. Races for the state legislature, county administrative offices, and judicial seats will be affected, but it is unclear exactly how. For example, in 2004, only about 50,000 of the 80,000 Democratic primary voters went down ballot to vote in other contests. If 240,000 people show up, how many of them go down ballot? How informed will they be? Who are they and how do candidates reach them? These are the questions keeping a number of local candidates and their teams up at night, because no one is sure of the answers.
The lack of a Republican presidential race (unless Huckabee really catches fire) in Texas on March 4th will no doubt also impact local GOP primary races. In particular, we think it spells bad news for incumbent County Judge Ed Emmett. No more Giuliani, Romney, Fred Thompson... this means low interest among voters who are not normal Republican primary participants but who may have been drawn in by a meaningful presidential contest. Emmett, a moderate, needed those voters. Instead, he's likely to get a primary dominated by the usual suspects -- right-wingers who thought Emmett never should have gotten the job in the first place. No wonder polling shows him down double digits. Also interesting will be how the GOP primary for DA is impacted.
Voting begins here a week from Tuesday. On we go!
Posted by houtopia at February 10, 2008 08:45 PM